Trough and Rain Event: Sept 28 - Oct 1

[Adam38]

35mm for the event so far, YTD rainfall sits at 620mm so that’s 100mm above the long term average for B.Marsh.

[Gordon]

A mere 28.5mm here & 33.5mm for the event. That's enough for here... but more inbound anyway. (60mm just down the road).

Looking as if BOM got the amounts right in large part, just the timing was a bit off!

[Mike]

21mm here after not really raining till 7pm whilst down the road at Snowfalls place it was smashing down.

25.2mm for the event ,raining currently and wind still NE

[Wilko]

19mm here...great soaking rain
Watching the radar shows nothing currently
Although the sky looks good..not overly optimistic but I hope to be proved wrong

[stevco123]

A few cells starting to pop up on radar in western metro now

[James]

suns out and creating heating here... fingers crossed but doh!, developments wrong side of the bay for me at the moment!

[Skywalker]

Storm shield in full force here, expecting nothing.

[James]

i think somehow there is just not enough lift even with the heating and despite the models showing storms here, i think...again, like the pattern has been so far, it wont be happening.

[Mike]

That stuff around Sunbury Melton area looking pretty gnarly from well North of it where I am

[Adam38]

Watching that cell to my NE, it has become active and the skies are getting dark.

[stevco123]

Somewhat of a seabreeze here i think. I put my chances at exactly zero for storms

[snowfall]

Those do look like big cells from where I am. Just scraped us, but one of them looks headed for Bacchus.

[Luken]

5.5mm here, steady rain, no rumbles, but better than nothing.

[Blackee]

First rumbles bayside

[Wilko]

Well I’ll be darned
Gutters overflowing here
So far 13mm in 10 mins

[Wilko]

The wind just swung from the north
May have had something to do with it

[Petros]

Just poured out 8.5mm from this time last evening, takes Maffra to 65mm for this thread/past 3 days.

Watching a storm trying its best on the ranges Nth of Bairnsdale, a slight chance for us to get a storm come in from the NE. A very rare event if it does arrive.

Royal Maffra is a sodden plot, but as our farmers say, "there's money in mud".

[Petros]

This is shaping up to be a big event, classic La Nina event slow moving low and trough hangs around for days, mild humid, slow moving, rain, showers and thunderstorms with widespread 30 to 50mm for many Tues through Fri with isol 100mm plus

With already saturated soils and catchments for much of central and eastern Vic we are likely to see numerous flooding issues for a number of communities which may put many rivers and creeks into minor or moderate flooding possibly major if the 100mm+ falls in right areas and widespread in the NE.
Many dams are full including Hume dam so could see some big issues in the NE by next weekend with many rivers in flood.

Locally things are satrurated, water is laying around everywere ovals are soggy, muddy near 100mm for the month after wet winter, things are soaked we do not need another 30 to 50mm which is looking likely this week.

30 to 50mm is looking liklely for much of the state this week east of Swan Hill to Ballarat with even bigger falls in the NE at and over 100mm
W and NW Vic more in the 10 to 20mm with isol 30mm range, hopefully Mallee get more 20 to 30mm widespread that will save failing crops up there and desperatlly needed.

Central and Eastren ranges and northern slopes and much of the NE looking more like 50 to 80mm with isol 100mm + could see few 120mm for the event in the NE which will put stress on already saturated soils and catchments.

Wet slow moving soaker on the way this week will be mild but not to hot and humid but soaking heavy rain for on and north of the ranges but even wet for much of Melbourne too active week and lots to watch.

Widespread rain will spread across much of NSW on and west of ranges there to with 30 to 60mm widespread which also could be to much of good thing for crops there that are also having another great season.

BEST 6 months of the year are about to Start so happy times ahead Thunderstorms on Wednesday could be good in Northern and NE Vic

Typically great call as usual Twisters!

[Supercellimpact]

Been raining quite moderately here in Sunbury the last few hours. Up to 30mm.

[QldTwister]

Yeah didnt rain as much in North country, NE as thought but still local falls in the 60 to 90mm range and much of the state has receive 30 to 50mm with isol places in the Otways over 200mm
Also sure number places in the sourthern Mallee in the 50 to 100mm range with 2 days of sationary rain showers and TS

Hit and miss showers and storms today near 50mm in far northern burbs and near nothing next suburb over
Nice downpour in city with that thundery shower moving through

20mm yesterday, 26mm for the event much of Melb had 20 to 40 as forecast

Looking ahead wet week next week fronts on Sun, Mon, Tues, Thurs Fri so sure many in south will see another 15 to 30mm for the week with isol 50mm for those that do well in W SW steams SW coast, NE ranges and E NE of Melb in the hills.
Back to winter next week snow down to 1100m at times and windy too cold Thursday

Active weather pattern rolls on, looks like will be mostly light showers for northern Vic