The Australian Weather Forum

Couple of front to end the week, with the first for late on Thursday, followed by a strong front for Saturday. Bit moisture starved, but still be plenty of showers in the south and mountains, with possible moderate falls in the usual wet spots. The air is very cold for the first half of April with 850Ts dipping to around -2C. Could be a good snow producer in the alps, mainly Lake Mt, Baw Baw and Donna Buang with snow levels dropping to 1000m or perhaps a touch lower.

May yet wiggle but currently looks pretty good.

Will see how these hold.

The peak of the cold outbreak with 850Ts dipping to around -2C.



The three days later the ex TC about to move across Victoria.

Foggy here this morning and currently 13c. The upcoming systems don't look too promising for rainfall here, but east central will probably do well with a decent south westerly flow. In any case, it will be good to finally have some colder weather. Some nice autumn colours appearing around here, which will probably accelerate after a burst of cooler weather.

Progs ramping up the weekend front. EC now got spot falls over 50mm, though very much a southern and mountain event. Snow levels dropping to about 900m early Sunday. Decent front before that early Friday with a band of heavy showers and a chance of a rumble.

Here’s a photo of the fog this morning looking east. The Ferny Creek weather station takes pride of place in the yard

Seems like a sea fog is moving in by the look of it. It has become considerably more humid the last hour and we have some fog rolling in from the south. You can taste it in your mouth

Good morning peeps from Hobart
Looking at the ABC satellite projection and it looks incredibly colourful and promising for us. Then more weather following when that moisture from WA swings and turns towards the bight.
Red sky big time this sunrise .

Nice shot Derwent.

Progs not much changed. Sharp front and rainband tomorrow morning, though moving quite quick so falls mostly 2-10mm.

Cold outbreak for the weekend is mid autumn ripper.

No rain likely here this weekend. The dry April continues...

But the West Coast of WA is in for a wild ride this Sunday-Monday. Potentially quite nasty...

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:43 am No rain likely here this weekend. The dry April continues...

But the West Coast of WA is in for a wild ride this Sunday-Monday. Potentially quite nasty...

You should get some tonight. Weekend, not so much

Progs not much changed. Cold wet and windy for much of the south and ranges. Sparse in the north. Looks like a substantial snow producer to me,

Out west those two TCs are spinning around each other Looks like a highly unusual impact somewhere north of Perth for early next week.

27.6c here today. Probably our last 25c+ day for several months.

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Shark Bay and Geraldton in WA on Monday. Looking like a Category 2 TC impacting the coast there.

Gorgeous photos Hillybilly and Derwent

Wild night up here with rain, fog and wind, and now a chilly 9C after a summery 24C yesterday. Feel likes we’ve gone from summer to winter and forgot autumn on the way Surprised to find 18mm in the gauge and still raining. Bit of a Dandenongs special with a good topographic signal. Not so good for areas away from the coast and south facing ranges

That cold outbreak is still on track. Front for middle of tomorrow with progressively colder air coming through. Snow levels should drop to around 800m. Will be coldies near the coast with rumbles and small hail. About 1.5C too warm for snow here but expecting some graupel and small hail.

6.5mm here, much more than expected so a good start. T-shirt weather yesterday evening; 10C and strong south-westerlies now.

Summer to winter in a day.

2.3mm here overnight and a brief sprinkle this am

7.5mm from a period of heavy rain overnight here, and another 1mm from a few follow up showers this morning.

Wet weekend on the cards for us here, box seat for the southwest flow. EC ensemble had another 20mm for us by Sunday pm.

Those Fujiwhara cyclones are fascinating!

To my amateur eye, seems to be serious disagreement in the models re the outcome for Vic for this event: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-09/ ... /100057858?

Weatherzone charts have the ex-cyclone plunging harmlessly south into the the deep Southern Ocean, whereas BOM have a 987hPA low bombing off the west coast of Tasmania Tuesday evening, and an associated front on Victoria's doorstep.



Worth keeping an eye on!

Scoresby recieved 8mm,
Mum dog bowl said we had a lot more than that....

2.2 Mag Port Phillip.

3mm overnight here. Fairly cool all day, but the temp briefly spiked to 17c when the sun popped out. Not expecting much rain here over the weekend. East central should do well with the southwesterly flow. In any case, looking forward to some cold weather

Gordon wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:41 pm To my amateur eye, seems to be serious disagreement in the models re the outcome for Vic for this event: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-09/ ... /100057858?

Weatherzone charts have the ex-cyclone plunging harmlessly south into the the deep Southern Ocean, whereas BOM have a 987hPA low bombing off the west coast of Tasmania Tuesday evening, and an associated front on Victoria's doorstep.



Worth keeping an eye on!

Reckon it will be mostly wind that system and a really warm night Tuesday night. EC is showing 20s in the middle of the night as the warm core of the TC pass over us. It reminds me a bit of TC Vance which passed over Melbourne back in 1999. Was nasty wind, high cloud, weirdly warm temps and a bit of rain. Most the rain will be on the southern side of the low.

The whole weekends sequence is going to be early interesting out west with quite possibly the strongest TC strike that far south. Geraldton hasn’t seen a significant TC strike for decades (not sure if it ever has ) and this system is headed straight for them. EC and gfs are showing a pressure around 975hPa and accelerating forwards speed with winds gusting over 100 knots The beaches are terrible eroded along a lot of that coast which creates a lot of vulnerable spots along the coast.

For us, our cold outbreak is on track. Becoming increasingly cold wet and windy tomorrow with local hail, thunder and graupel. Snow levels falling to a bit below 800m on Sunday morning. Later Sunday we get into classic warm air advection that might almost resemble a warm front which will push more showery weather in a southerly stream. Expecting local falls north of 50mm in the usual wet spots.