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Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

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hillybilly
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Foggy and rainy night up here. About 15mm in the gauge, though about half of that is melted snow from yesterday :D MTD is just past 80mm so doing well. Still need about 40mm for the average, but got plenty of time to get there so must be a good chance.

Showery week ahead, but pretty mild. Sunday next week looks particularly mild with temps in EC spiking to the 20 to mid 20s for parts. About the opposite of yesterday :o

Locally, the snow fell lower on Saturday. There was snow lying quite deep at 450m in Sassafras. With a minimum temperature of 0.2C at 512m which occurred during the snow event, I’d put the lowest level for proper snow around 250-300m. There would have been slushy stuff perhaps a degree lower so about 150-200m. When we went out snow spotting on Saturday morning it was drizzling heavily so would have melted quickly at lower elevations. I suspect a light cover around Tremont for a period.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Gordon »

Another 20mm in the gauge here but that includes yesterday and today - couldn't measure yesterday with the rain gauge snowed in :).

Brings us to 65mm for the event (way more than the models predicted for us) and 68mm mtd. And still pretty cold here at 2 C.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by snowfall »

About 50mm for the event here and 53mm MTD. Off to a good start! Sun is out this morning and currently 6c.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by JasmineStorm »

43mm for the event, including snow :) 2nd settled snow event here in the last 4 winters. Locally it normally snows once a winter but settling on the ground is rare..... and unusually this one occurred during daylight hours.

Snow totals in the Alps are huge. All eyes will be on the Spencer creek weekly snow depth reading 8-)
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Didjman »

We have a possible repeat in 2-3 weeks time - Polar Vortex splitting again!
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Didjman wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:09 am We have a possible repeat in 2-3 weeks time - Polar Vortex splitting again!
Then to be named, blimey Peter not again..
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Adam38 »

35mm here for the event, lots of water laying around and creeks and rivers flowing fast, this time last year they either dry or a trickle.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by BringOnTheCoolChange »

Didjman wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:09 am We have a possible repeat in 2-3 weeks time - Polar Vortex splitting again!
Mmmm will have to find out where to get some cheap xc skis haha.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Another mm here today with a max of 7C. Was one brief heavy shower mid morning which the wife reckons was sleety (perhaps a bit of small hail).

Not a lot of excitement the next few days. A shower or two most days, ahead of a more significant front on Sunday which looks like being quite dramatic (850Ts go from low teens to about -4C). Might almost get a flurry about the tops of the Dandenongs if that holds.

Always find it hard to get excited about Progs after big events like that we’ve just gone through. Hope we don’t have to wait eleven more years for a decent settled snow event ;)
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Totally missed the event in Northern Tasmania, Friday to Monday maxima in Launceston were 13.9, 13.6, 13.8, 15.6 with only 0.6mm of rain recorded.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by Macedonian »

FB_IMG_1565579230888.jpg
FB_IMG_1565579230888.jpg (25.32 KiB) Viewed 11240 times
Nice pic of the settled snow in Gisborne at the town fountain.
About 400m asl.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Added a couple of days to the thread as this system is so slow to clear. The high is going to be slow to push through so showers continue on and off until the middle of Friday on and south of the divide. Will add up in the usual wet spots, being persistent though not that heavy. Temps are cool, but no longer icy :(

Foggy damp night in the Dandenongs. Another 4mm give or take. Gotta be a chance for our fourth month above average which is something that hasn’t happened here since the thumping La Niña events back in 2010-2012. Wierd as it’s been mostly showery stuff with the Indian Ocean infeeds largely switched off (which is why inland areas north of about the Mallee are struggling).

Cracking front showing up for Sunday into Monday. A chance for our first warm day then snow levels plunging on Monday. Too far out to trust the details, but looks promising. EC has snow falling below 500m, though that could disappear. I have found in the past the weather patterns do have a tendency to repeat this time of year with snow events tending to cluster so maybe something :?:
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

After being away for the weekend, I was pleasantly surprised to see 35mm in the gauge since this time last week. We've been pretty lucky given the +ve IOD at present. -ve AAO for the win!
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Misty drizzle all morning so far, and very wet ground..
might need a water height pole in my driveway its like a river crossing..
or some rocks..
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Foggy and hasn’t stopped drizzling up here. Had a bit over 3mm. Just passing 90mm MTD. August is our wettest month of the year (133mm average) but that looks very attainable. This rain in a positive IOD a real bonus :D
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by Skywalker »

Finally got around to posting our total for the event.
34mm recorded which is a pretty good result. The clay soils are absolutely saturated around here. Definitely won't be able to take much more.

Would of been nice to see something other than just rain, but I guess that's pretty much to be expected where I'm located. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by JasmineStorm »

JasmineStorm wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:44 am
Snow totals in the Alps are huge. All eyes will be on the Spencer creek weekly snow depth reading 8-)
Spencer creek comes in at 202cm. Equals 1990,91 & 92 record for consecutive years above the 198cm snow depth historical mean.

Models are still ramping up the upcoming Sunday / Monday system :)
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 12 Aug 2019

Post by hillybilly »

JasmineStorm wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:17 pm
JasmineStorm wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:44 am
Snow totals in the Alps are huge. All eyes will be on the Spencer creek weekly snow depth reading 8-)
Spencer creek comes in at 202cm. Equals 1990,91 & 92 record for consecutive years above the 198cm snow depth historical mean.

Models are still ramping up the upcoming Sunday / Monday system :)
Tis turning into an odd season with the upper Snowies doing really well, but the lower snowies being pretty lean and Vic up and down like a you-you :D Was quite surprise that Mt Hotham is only reporting ~85cm (perhaps wrong?). Mt Donna Buang has had three bumper falls with good cover for about a week each time.

The three good seasons in a row seems to be linked to the NSW drought. We've basically switched off tropical infeeds with the rain/weather zipping along in the westerlies.

At the end of the season the depth by days metric will be really interesting - I'm expecting Spencer Creek will come out well, but lower sites will probably be about average.

BTW nice article on the event at https://theconversation.com/snow-at-the ... her-121802 .

Meanwhile still fog and drizzle here. Another mm and a bit in the gauge (just 39 hours more drizzle to my monthly average :D ).
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Great reading and analysis by all, sounds like I've missed a great cold event! Currently sitting by the pool in Khao Lak with a delicious cocktail and a steamy 33 degrees. Arriving back in Aus around the time of the next system (that'd be right :P )
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Re: Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

Post by Gordon »

Finally went back and checked my snow records for this location (since 1997). It's been really interesting... well, at least for me :).

Only including 'snow days' when snow settled (as opposed to fell but didn't settle):

- We've had at least one snow day every year except 2006 and 2009.
- Before this year, we've had two other years with 4 snow days, being 2000 and 2008.
- We've had 9 years where there was two or more snow days.

So the current event was very unusual for us (once a decade?) but not unprecedented.
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