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Vic - Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2 2019

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hillybilly
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Vic - Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Decent looking system for this coming weekend with a strong front tapping a decent infeed of tropical moisture. Looks like a significant rain event on the northern slopes, and could be ok for southwest and central Vic. Totals on EC widely showing 20-40mm north, and 15-30mm south. Gippsland looks like missing out, while totals on the northeast ranges will be significant. Quite unstable prefrontal so could be some embed rumbles.

Not a good event for the snowfields. Most the precip occurs in the warm prefrontal airmass so a washout, before some snow later. There’s little cold air to follow, so nothing much below the alps :(
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks promising for another 20-30 mm here (very similar to the Mid-June system with a decaying cold front dragging down the tropical stuff).

GFS actually has a decent lot of cold air over us next week. EC sits us under a monster anti-cyclone, while AXS-G reckons a big ECL. All a bit whacked...
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Sean »

Another bout of mild temps by the looks of it, but at least there's some rain on the cards.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by hillybilly »

Sean wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:12 pm Another bout of mild temps by the looks of it, but at least there's some rain on the cards.
Yep, looks like proper winter’s on hold for a while. Two weeks of highs, with an unsettled day inbetween. Looks like the positive IOD is slowing squeezing in.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by StratoBendigo »

Good alignment in the forecast models here for 30mm+ of soaking rain on Saturday. The crops and pasture will love it!
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Hawker »

Yes should be a nice rain, hopefully get a bit of
the possible local heavy falls and start some run off.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by hillybilly »

Mild and windy up here. Quite the change from earlier in the week with those frosty and misty mornings.

Progs barely budging. 20-50mm north, 10-25mm south. EC has been stuck on 20mm here for the last three runs. That will nicely round out June and push us above average (for the second month in a row). Looks like a very mild system, so the heavy prefrontal rain will probably turn into a washout in the alps. Some snow later in the event. Turning into a bit of a lean season atm, with the cold periods dry, and the wet periods mild last few weeks.

Next week is wall to wall high and uppers approach 10C later. Nice as I’ll be down the beach, but hoping that pattern doesn’t stick for too long.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by jimmyay »

Pretty mild out there today. Lols like city may scrape 20 degrees.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by JasmineStorm »

Access C latest run is just in. Projecting a very large moisture feed into north central at around 700 hPa tomorrow afternoon. An ominous rain shadow around the Metro. Going for 60 to 100mm around here. I'll take 50mm thanks :)
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Horts »

Looks almost identical to the June 12th event!

Big hole over the metro area.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Adam38 »

That is a very pronounced rain shadow!! Looking at that chart I should do ok here, 20mm or so maybe.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Hawker »

Showers moving in over the northern district now,
looks like they could develop further.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by hillybilly »

Mild one out there today, very spring like to be honest. Was down at Port Melbourne and the water looked swimmable, though reckon it would have been a bit of a shock for the anyone half tempted to jump in :D Got a surprise late shower here, which felt quite thundery though only 0.4mm of rain.

A northern Vic system. The upslide is better in northern areas and they also get the upslope flow. Should get 10-20mm here, maybe 25mm if we’re lucky, but thinking most likely about 15mm. Will round the month out just above average. The city still needs 7mm to get to average, and avoid its sixth below average month in a row :o Hope it gets there.

50mm plus across the wetter northern slopes. Be good for keeping things damp, and a bit more runoff. Going to be a lean start to July so anything will be welcome.

Not good for the snowfields. Looks to me like heavy rain up there til late in the day. Won’t be much natural snow left before the wetstuff turns white :?
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by snowfall »

Looks like north of the divide could do very well over the 24 hours. I’m not sure we’ll do quite as well as Access-C suggests for here; we usually struggle in these NW setups, especially if it’s quite windy as well. Time will tell! We’re currently on 96mm MTD, so already above average but a bit of follow-up would be welcome, especially given the fairly dry-ish outlook beyond tomorrow.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Sean »

That pesky rain shadow strikes again.. :x
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Tassiedave »

Max temps in Tas today: Flinders Isl Airport 18.7. Bushy Park 18.3, Hobart 18.1, St Helens 17.9, Strahan 17.3, Launceston 16.1
At 11.20 pm Grove (southern Tas) was 15.2 degrees. Brisbane was 15.1 degrees.
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hillybilly
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by hillybilly »

0.6mm in the gauge this morning with a few spits outside ATM. Strong rainshadow in play today, so picking the final totals south of the divide will not be straight-forward. I'm tending to think 15mm here. Northern side of the divide will have a wild, wet and windy day. Good set up for runoff up there.

Going to be a case of raining piling up on the northern slopes of the divide, and going missing as it goes south. Then a secondary bounce, which typically occurs somewhere near the southeastern suburbs. Rain becomes more extensive later in the day just before the westerly change. Winds are very gusty here ATM with garden furniture walking around the back deck :D

In the alps, a dismal start to school holidays (thinking people driving up will be wondering the sense of hitting the OZ ski fields :( ).

BTW how's France? 45.9C overnight, breaking the old national June record by 4.4C and the all months record by 1.8C. Not sure I've seen something quite that extreme anywhere before :? I've looked at OZ to see if there are any notable records to compensate, and for June we've broken about 5 times more warm records than cold one. The warm ones tend to go unnoticed during winter.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by JasmineStorm »

Now up to 21mm since it began. Rainfall rate currently around 10mm/hr. Interestingly latest EC 12z only had 5mm to 10mm up this point, Access C 20 to 30mm. Access C is picking up the intensity well so far locally.
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Macedonian »

6.5mm here, lovely rainy morning.
Very mild at 8C
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Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Front with rain and storms: June 30-July 2

Post by Didjman »

9mm here so far and 10C.
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