Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

[hillybilly]

dont we need sunlight first for the storms to form?

It is sunny northeast and north of the city. That said, the trough is pushing inland and every minute that passes pushes action further and further east.

Am starting to loose a bit of faith in the set-up.

[JasmineStorm]

Geelong's temp has jumped 4 degrees to 25c at 3pm in the last hour or so.... I assume the sun has come out again down there.

[Hawker]

Nice looking line of storms developing way to the east of here now.
Must be around Eildon, Yea, part of the world

[stevco123]

I reckon in the end we got everything 5 hours earlier than when it was supposed to come through.

[JasmineStorm]

Topped at 27.2c, 2.6mm for the thread, 3mm for month, 55.6mm for the year. That 2.6mm deluge had evaporated by midday

The BoM are starting to like next Monday and Tuesday for rain.

[hillybilly]

Oh well.. another "bust". Southerly has just undercut it all in central Vic. 4 hours later and would have gone bang. Few thundery showers further east. Progs all seem to have overdone this one

3.3mm in FC. Almost cool today - max of just 19C. Maybe a bit of fog or spits of drizzle overnight for us.

Warmth returns by the weekend, then hopefully a rather more productive rain producer.

[James]

always the same...

models promise this and that, and i the end it does what it will do anyway - but who cares, next week the models are already telling of something exciting,...which again does what it will do regardless, and we get excited at the next models.

To be honest, the weathers gone nuts, i cant recall such odd weather patterns, especially lack of thunderstorms.

But i am sure the next models will still get everyone excited, to be honest i cant see any value in them, they change the more they know, the closer it gets to an event, just like people/forecasts.

[hillybilly]

3.6mm for today. Brings my monthly total to a thumping 7mm. Still, 1000 litres in the water tank and with cool misty weather a day off from watering.

Mild tomorrow in the south then a couple of warm/hot humid ones for the weekend.

Progs all looking very promising for next week now. All starts in only three days so should be pretty good chance for us. CMC, GFS, EC, JMA, ACCESS and UK all on board. Consensus doesn't get much better

Funny thing is that the models the last week haven't been too bad in a general sense, but not great in the details. Unfortunately those of us in central Vic have been basically robbed in three events (Saturday's trough too soon, Sunday's trough too soon, today's trough too soon). A couple of hours difference or 100km or so and could have been very different outcomes. Place just east of me have had 20mm the last week, while areas from 30-40km southwest of Geelong all the way to the SA border have also seen 10-25mm.

[hillybilly]

Almost cool this morning in FC. 10C with a gusty trade wind flow

Two warm ones for the weekend - perhaps even hot - before a rainy Mon-Tues-Wed. Every model on board for next week, but details wiggling a bit.

Should bring good falls for most of us, but as is typical some will miss out a bit.

[Macedonian]

8.4C here. Good to have a more normal temp.
Not looking forward to the hot weekend.

[Skywalker]

, but as is typical some will miss out a bit.

No doubt I will be one of those "some" who will miss out.

Cool ride into work this morning with a moderate south easterly head wind. Should be perfect conditions for the ride home.

Warm conditions coming up for a big weekend ahead for our family.

[JasmineStorm]

Hot weekend and then it looks certain for a rain event of sorts for Monday to Wednesday. I have my doubts on its impact north of the divide though…..Access is quite wide spread but GFS and EC is bulleye-ing south of the divide, especially south east of Melbourne. Looks like a stormy Monday evening in central areas.

Certainly is a dynamic set up around Australia at the moment. The monsoon trough charging into the northern tropics for maybe its last hurrah of the season, the incredible blocking high weather pattern drowning the east, baking the south east and now maybe the biggest event of all – All models have been liking a cyclone for next week off W.A but GFS just modelled the cyclone to be a major cat 5, 927 hPa coming out of that monsoon trough. Yasi was a 929 hPa crossing the coast into Tully. Storms this size change the atmosphere and weather patterns, hope it comes off

[occluded]

OCF had 30mm for Monday here although the latest run has wound it back to 22mm.

After the Los Angeles-like pouring sun of the past few weeks I'd be happy with anything more than 2mm.

[hillybilly]

Models really wet on the update. EC got 100mm here, CMC around 50mm, GFS about 25mm, ACCESS around 50mm. Ensembles across the models are really consistent also.

Looks to me like a statewide event, and the north will do well as a record humid airmass surges south. The latest GFS has precipitable water values of 50mm for Melbourne Monday morning. The March record is 47mm so you are talking a system bringing down tropical air and fast.

Of course, could wiggle across the models and some spots will miss out, but this is one of the best set of progs I've seen in a long time. One key with this system is it is large and not developing that rapidly which tends to mean better predictability.

Maybe time for its own thread it it's still there in the models come morning

[StratoBendigo]

EC has fallen over here and is only giving us 2mm for Monday.

Ensemble is 32mm so still a whole lot of divergence.

[mick]

Beautiful weather, more signs of the drought being back, heck it must be the desal is running.

Very boring tho, one storm really in 6 months.

Verty windy here now very gusty from east, be a lot of trees down tonight.

Imagine being in sydney the last few weeks, the cockroaches must be the size of mice by now
all that rain and humidity.

[StratoBendigo]

And EC pulls the trigger and forecasts 44mm for us Monday-Tuesday. Models are really struggling with this one.

I hope EC is correct. It'll save our garden...

Mick, Sydney being over-run by rats atm.

[hillybilly]

Two more "nice" days to come. Bit over nice to be honest... with no real rain for a month.

Models still holding for Monday/Tuesday, though waiting for EC to update. Bit of a wiggle across the models but generally they are showing 10-50mm for most areas. Devil will be in the details.

Thinking 40mm here as a best guess. Will clean out the gutter this arvo as they are chockers with leaves from the past 4 weeks of fair trade wind weather..

[StratoBendigo]

Both Access-G and GFS have fizzled out. Access R has it all falling in Bass Strait.... Roll the dice on the coming week.

[hillybilly]

EC updates got 70mm here and around 50mm city. Even has 40mm for Bendigo.

Will take that.

GFS less keen, but is doing wierd things with its rain. I reckon it is often is the worst model for rain getting all patchy in unstable situations. It is also pushing the low through too fast compared to all other models.

All the other models look good or promising.