Vic - Jan 25th - Feb 2nd dry, warm and hot

[JasmineStorm]

Just creating a new thread for the next week. If you are looking for rain and storms then this thread will be one of the most boring threads you will ever see. It’s going to be a dry terrestrial heat bomb north of the divide from Friday Jan 27th to Feb 2nd, with the heat moving into southern areas when a strong northerly wind prevails. Hottest day south of the divide seems to be Monday January 30th on current models before a frontal system moves across southern areas. Hopefully the monsoon trough gives us moisture next week, so we can kill this thread off but currently it doesn’t seem to be the case.

Edit: EC's latest (24 Jan 00z) just modelled an interesting scenario for next Monday afternoon. Hoping that downgrades a little

[Tassiedave]

The red line on ACCESS seems to sit in the same place with subtle shifts north and south. Does this mean prolonged heat for SA, Victoria and NSW?

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[JasmineStorm]

Screen Shot 2017-01-25 at 9.15.41 am.png

If the conditions are right, yes TassieDave. This is my understanding for the weatherzone map.

The red line is the 5,760m metre thickness which indicates where surface temps may reach 40c if everything lines up - e.g clear skies. You will see the red line dip near Melbourne on Jan 30th.

The blue line is the 5,400 metre thickness which indicates where snow would fall if the terrain is around 1,500 metres or higher with moisture present.

The purple line which Tassie would see sometimes in winter is 5200m thickness and indicates snow at sea level if moisture is available.

[WeatherViewer]

Screen Shot 2017-01-25 at 9.15.41 am.png

If the conditions are right, yes TassieDave. This is my understanding for the weatherzone map.

The red line is the 5,760m metre thickness which indicates where surface temps may reach 40c if everything lines up - e.g clear skies. You will see the red line dip near Melbourne on Jan 30th.

The blue line is the 5,400 metre thickness which indicates where snow would fall if the terrain is around 1,500 metres or higher with moisture present.

The purple line which Tassie would see sometimes in winter is 5200m thickness and indicates snow at sea level if moisture is available.

Jasmine, would it have to be a drastic change on the models for that heat to slip south now? Not saying I want it though, hehe.

[JasmineStorm]

Correct Weatherviewer..... it's need a good strong northerly to push the inland heat south of the divide. Monday looks like that will be the day for Melbourne. In Kyneton, I'll be 30+ from Friday to next Wednesday and the BoM has already declared a heat wave for the Murray. Interesting day ahead on Monday across most of Vic, Access has now increased its wind forecast like EC did last night. Currently a trough is modelled to arrive in the late afternoon on Monday to change the wind direction to a south westerly.

[hillybilly]

Struggling to get excited by this sequence. Basically beaut summer weather in southern Vic with not much weather in the offering. One hot day, but progs don't know whether to put us into northerlies on Monday (or keep flow light and perhaps even onshore).

North will be warm to hot... and probably very hot on Monday.

NSW really looks like having a scorching few days (and have a good chance at their hottest month on recrod ).

We could get a weak rainband post change, but been on-and-off. GFS was keen for a while yesterday then droped it. ACCESS is keen. EC has been throwing up a bit.

[JasmineStorm]

Last day of nice cool temps up here for a while, currently sitting on 23c with a moderate SE breeze.

Latest models certainly looking like Monday will be a lock in Fire ban virtually state wide. BoM / CFA just issued their first guidance on the subject. EC last run shows up NW winds between 90 to 120 km/h at 850 hPa for big chunks of Vic and the southerly change is very strong. Probably 40c for here and not out of the question for Melbourne at this stage.

[JasmineStorm]

The heat has returned today here in Kyneton, currently 33c. Not sure I’m going to see a cloud until Monday at this stage. Nice southerly down south. More of the same for the weekend.

Some interesting tweaks on the models, for Monday. MetEye’s latest update just had low to mid 40’s around Avalon and Geelong on Monday afternoon. Ground zero has now moved onto the Vic border near the Mallee at around 45 / 46c. Low humidity and wind is a concern with most models still showing very high gusts, especially in the Grampians and Macedon Ranges. The good old monsoon low, soon to be cyclone Alfred is also assisting this process with it feeding the jet stream and into a trough in WA / the bight, enhancing the trough and the southern frontal system coming our way late Monday. Personally I’m hoping it downgrades to a light northerly soon…

It’s always interesting to compare a current set up to a historical extreme of the past on the MSLP maps. No 2 events are ever the same of course, especially with grounds conditions involving drought and lead up heat waves but it does confirm how certain events come together in the atmosphere at a certain time of year. Here is a comparison to a past extreme MSLP map based on the BoM MLSP map outlook from today which I found interesting.

[Sean]

7th of Feb... is that the day Melbourne almost hit 47c?

God, what a day. Resembled the apocalypse.

[Geoff]

7th of Feb... is that the day Melbourne almost hit 47c?

Yep, it will forever be known as Black Saturday.
What is strange is that the chart from 2009 doesn't give any indication of the storm force northerlies that blasted us that day.
Also, with very similar looking charts you'd expect similar temperatures, but the BOM forecast for Melbourne next Monday is 38C, almost 10C lower.

[JasmineStorm]

7th of Feb... is that the day Melbourne almost hit 47c?

Yep, it will forever be known as Black Saturday.
What is strange is that the chart from 2009 doesn't give any indication of the storm force northerlies that blasted us that day.
Also, with very similar looking charts you'd expect similar temperatures, but the BOM forecast for Melbourne next Monday is 38C, almost 10C lower.

Yes, good points Geoff. The inland heat from that event was something else building up over weeks.

[stevco123]

Someone from the BoM on the radio earlier this morning said there is a very slim chance of a a 40 degree day this summer. If it's going to happen it will happen in the next 2 weeks and Monday is our last real chance.

[hillybilly]

The heat has returned today here in Kyneton, currently 33c. Not sure I’m going to see a cloud until Monday at this stage. Nice southerly down south. More of the same for the weekend.

Quite amazing what aspect does to your temps. We are basically the same altitude but with direct line of sight to the bays topped out at 23C yesterday. Was damp early as we squeezed out a little mizzle overnight.Today looks maybe a degree or two warmer and tomorrow similar. These warm upper southerly/southeasterly days are glorious here, though do slowly dry things out.

There's a decent low level jet and hot uppers for Monday One of those days that will make most in Vic away from the air conditioned city shops/offices nervous. Can't see the north avoiding lots of low 40s. I don't like the dewpoints in the northerlies which are close to 0C. Progs are bringing Monday's front through earlier and have reasonable cloud. CMC, ACCESS and EC have all got some rain (though there is a marked dry slot sub-cloud which will probably evaporate a lot of it). GFS isn't that interest - maybe a bit of drizzle overnight with the weak rainband mainly effecting the southwest.

Strikes me as another one of those days which with a strengthening front coming late arvo and with proper northerlies could be horrible (but the fronts weakening and slipping south).

The airmass to our north has been hell-like for weeks but just keeps staying mostly north of us (NSW is probably headed for a record hot summer ).

Rest of the week looks like being dominated by a heat trough over NSW and southerlies over most of Vic. Might be a weak rainband wiggling across the north with moisture streaming from the Indian Ocean. Watch for unusual heavy rain in southwest WA next few days - progs have been showing Perth could well get a few January's worth of rainfall tied to the developing TC interacting with a trough...

[Macedonian]

7th of Feb... is that the day Melbourne almost hit 47c?

Yep, it will forever be known as Black Saturday.
What is strange is that the chart from 2009 doesn't give any indication of the storm force northerlies that blasted us that day.
Also, with very similar looking charts you'd expect similar temperatures, but the BOM forecast for Melbourne next Monday is 38C, almost 10C lower.

Yes, good points Geoff. The inland heat from that event was something else building up over weeks.

The inland heat and also the years of drought that lead up to 2009

[JasmineStorm]

Another day in the 30’s here, top of 32.3c and is now sitting around 30c with a fresh southerly that is fanning a medium sized fire north of here around Heathcote. Unfortunately a few misses with rain systems over the last few weeks doesn’t help with any fires that get moving in this neck of the woods.

Better news for Monday with temps capping in the mid to high 30’s (except the Mallee) with the incoming cloud and a more westerly wind direction in the late afternoon. Still looks around 38c for here and still rated as severe fire danger for most of Vic with decent wind gusts but not as extreme as yesterday’s models looked. Hopefully another little downgrade tomorrow and not the other way.

As for rain, no confidence of when the next proper drop will be for the next 10 days.

[Supercellimpact]

A hot 35 degrees here today, 37 tomorrow then 39 Monday. The difference between Melbourne and here is considerable, eg. 28c for tomorrow. Damn you dividing range .

[hillybilly]

Ran up to 25C here quickly then the southerly kicked in. A cool 15C now and quite humid with the relative humidity just shy of 90%. Thinking we may well get a bit of fog overnight.

Warm tomorrow. Hot Monday but more cloud and earlier, with a few late showers. Heat grinds on up north, but mainly over the Murray. Looks like we might see a pattern change in about a week.

Btw apparently a house and close to ten cars lost to a grass fire near Heathcote this arvo. Goes to show it's pretty dry now, so take care...

[JasmineStorm]

Looking like mid 30s here today. As HB mentioned, the heathcote fire had property loss yesterday....started from a lawn mower.

Latest runs has upgraded wind again The German model Icon has winds at 130 km/h tomorrow morning over Vic at 850 hPa MetEye showing the strongest of the winds to be 11am to 4pm in central areas tomorrow. Hoping for a late downgrade.

[hillybilly]

Nice morning here with a decent dew. Looks like a warm sunny arvo ahead.

Only a few hours of heat here tomorrow and some cloud to take away the edge. Shame there's no real rain in the offering. Maybe something late in the week (and a few spits tomorrow evening).

Shaping up as a historically heatwave event inland with already record runs of heat likely to grind on for another one or two weeks in inland parts of NSW and Qld.

[StratoBendigo]

Hopefully we can get past Monday without another major incident. It got a bit windy with a Northwesterly breeze yesterday afternoon while Melbourne had a southerly....

Looking forward to cooler weather mid-week, and if EC is on point (not confident though, except EC has been pretty good this summer), Feb 6 could see a doozy of a trough arrive to dampen things up.