23/24th Jan - Trough and Front

[Harley34]

Opinions? Last system was a nice system, but I slept through the rain overnight. Friend said he heard thunder around the area. Solid inch of rainfall...

Storms for this Monday/Tuesday?

[typhoon29]

Why not storms for Monday?! Hot conditions late change sounds like a classic setup. I was awoken by thunder at 0130 Friday morning, we scored and inch in the old scale, so not bad!

[Dane]

Storms not that likely with the next system i think. And not much rain either.
Have not heard thunder this year yet.

[hillybilly]

Geez progs are jumpy for this. EC gone from 25 to 10 to 20 to 5mm here on the latest four runs. GFS, ACCESS and CMC all going for a bit, bouncing between 5 and about 10mm.

Main issues looks to be lack of low level moisture. The mid and upper levels are hot and moist, but low levels rather dry.

Looks like our last system for a while with highs and southerlies dominating after this til February.

[JasmineStorm]

It’s just not lining up on the models at the moment but I do think this one has some potential for a quick last minute upgrade. On Access R last update at 8am today, projected dew points will be in the mid 20’s in the Mallee tomorrow evening and around 18 to 20c around Melbourne around midnight. It will be interesting looking at the sat pic tomorrow night, this is what latest GFS simulated IR says for tomorrow evening http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=481

The old monsoon is back for a third crack at the tropics. The next 4 weeks is upgrade alley for Victoria. I think the moisture will creep down after a hot spell around Feb 5th http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... =20#p98383

[JasmineStorm]

31c currently in Kyneton, it’s certainly been a warm January without being too extreme. Some good heat again tomorrow.

Just had another quick look at the vitals for tomorrow and as I suspected, a little upgrade on Access R on the latest run at 2pm, especially the areas of Melbourne and the Mallee around midnight tomorrow night and then north central around sunrise Monday. I also think this trough might be one of those annoying fire starters, with quite a few dry lightning strikes as it drifts across inland Vic.

[Geoff]

Just back from a wonderful month in Tassie, surely the most picturesque state in the country!
Just wanted to post this picture from onboard the ferry when we were in the middle of Bass Strait midday yesterday, beautiful flat calm ocean!

image upload no ads

[JasmineStorm]

Looks great Geoff, Bass Strait looking like a wolf in sheep's clothing

Heading into the high’s 20’s, humidity around 50%, dew point mid teens in Kyneton. BoM’s MetEye has zero chance of any storm in Victoria for the next 24 hours as of the 8.30am update. If you look at MetEye for thunderstorms, it seems that the BoM have deployed the storm shield on the S.A and NSW borders and incorporated this into the model run. Impressive stuff

This is what I see on the 9.30am Sat Pic.

[mick]

Radio says no change until 2am!

[JasmineStorm]

It looks like the first trough will pass through central Vic around this evening, so there will be some sort of southerly change around 6 to 8 in Melbourne but it will be muggy old night after that with some showers hanging around.

[Rivergirl]

Welcome back Geoff Lovely and calm

[JasmineStorm]

Cloud is keeping it around 30c here ATM but I see some gaps heading this way on the Sat Pic, so I think its going to spike. Melbourne has 35c covered, maybe more to go if the cloud breaks continue. Balmy 38c in Avalon.

A few cloud tops just reached -30c in western Victoria, so there is some lift about.

[Macedonian]

Is it really that hot at Avalon? 38?
Cloud has kept the temp low at my place.
24C at Mt Macedon. Big difference between there and here.
I can see the Avalon area from my upstairs windows.

[JasmineStorm]

reached 35.4c up here not long ago, up 5c in an hour, amazing what a break in the clouds does. The storm zone in central S.A is going off.

[stevco123]

Surprised to reach 37 a moment ago. 2 above the city.

Back to 35 now however.

[WeatherViewer]

Top of 36.7C here today in Tarneit, still 36.5C. Just saw Weatherzone website stating 5-10mm for Melbourne area tonight?

[mick]

Looking west its got that might be a storm feel about it, but might just be a blanket of cloud.

[mick]

Elvis is heading down the mornington peninsula, oh dear.

A helicopter is being dispatched to Sandstone Island late today to apply fire retardant to the remaining structure.

One left?

[WeatherViewer]

Is this the actual change coming through associated with the rain band around Geelong area? Temps are dropping with the SW Wind direction. Much earlier than anticipated.

[mick]

Wind change has hit!

dropped from 34 to 30