Perth/WA - Day to Day Weather Talk

[brayden]

39.8C at 1.30pm from the airport

* some decent Cu's around now, can't believe it had to get around 40C for it! lol

[ozzie]

41 degrees here...Rubbish tip fire 2 mins from here...hope it doesnt come my way

ADVICE for Armadale Rubbish Tip fire
Friday 12 March 2010 – 2:50 PM
ALERT LEVEL:

An ADVICE has been issued for people near the Armadale Rubbish Tip for a fire that has started at the Armadale Rubbish Tip on Hopkinson Road near Rowley Road in Darling Downs.

WHAT TO DO:

People living in the area need to be alert and watch for signs of fire.

You should:

· Close all doors and windows

· Turn off evaporative air conditioners but keep water running through the system if possible



People living in the area need to be aware of fire and other emergency services personnel working on site and take their advice.



People driving in the area that come across smoke should:

· Turn your headlights on to make your vehicle more visible to others

· Drive slowly

· Keep a close watch for and follow any directions given by emergency services personnel

If you cannot see clearly, pull over to the side of the road, keep your headlights and hazard lights on, and wait until the smoke clears.

WHAT FIREFIGHTERS ARE DOING:

Fire crews are on the scene.
Helitacs have been mobilised to assist ground crews.

The incident was reported at 1.25pm today.

Motorists are asked to avoid the area, reduce speed and drive carefully due to smoke. They should also be aware of emergency services personnel working on site and take their advice.

Further information will be released as it become available.

KEEP UP TO DATE:

Call 1300 657 209, visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au or listen to news bulletins.

[ozzie]

Next week could be quite interesting here, here is the 4 day forecast for the South West:

A mid level disturbance will interact with the surface trough on Saturday, and
as a result scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should continue over
far eastern parts. A moist SE'ly flow will also produce isolated showers over
remaining southern parts of the Division.
A new surface trough should develop near the west coast on Sunday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms initially over eastern parts of the Division should
extending to remaining parts of the Division north of Perth in the afternoon as
the trough interacts with a developing mid level disturbance to the west of the
state. Isolated showers should continue over southern parts in the E/SE'ly flow.
On Monday the mid level disturbance should deepen off the west coast. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over northern and western parts of the SW
Land Division, with isolated showers and thunderstorms extending to all but
south coastal parts, where a little morning drizzle can be expected. It is
likely that the thunderstorm activity will result in some moderate rainfall
totals over parts of the SW Land Division, but at this range there remains a
fair degree of uncertainty as to where this may occur.

[Lily]

Wet stuff, falling from the sky? I certainly hope it comes off for you guys over there

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah Oscar with that disgusting H pressure system centering out here, I think you will be starting to get moderate fronts with showers and the odd storm. Not huge rainbands yet with 150kmh winds but you will be working your way towards something more dramatic in about 3-4 weeks time.

Glad the 42C days are finished!!

[brayden]

Yeah been keeping an eye on this one LI's look good for Monday 12pm onwards:

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast. ... #stormcast

Still a fair bit out, but hopefully won't get a worser model now lol

Hopefully some mid level storms on evening for lightning pics! And deff. need some precip!

[brayden]

Forecast for Friday
Some high cloud. Light to moderate S/SE winds tending moderate to fresh S/SW in
the afternoon.

Precis: High cloud.
City: Max 28
Mandurah: Max 26

UV Alert: 9:20 am to 3:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

Saturday Sunny. Min 16 Max 30
Sunday Cloud increasing. Min 17 Max 33
Monday Chance of a thunderstorm. Min 20 Max 30
Tuesday Cloudy periods. Min 19 Max 31
Wednesday Partly cloudy. Min 19 Max 30
Thursday Sunny. Min 18 Max 29

[Lily]

Monday Chance of a thunderstorm. Min 20 Max 30

Hallelujah!

[ozzie]

Potentially a very good storm setup from sunday evening

[ozzie]

Not a bad forecast Storms will be very hit and miss tomorrow is my guess...


IDW1200003
Perth Forecast
Warning summary
Nil.


Forecast for Thursday evening
Clear. Moderate E/SE winds easing tending S/SW near the coast.

Precis: Clear.

Forecast for Friday
Partly cloudy with the risk of a thunderstorm. Moderate E'ly winds shifting
moderate to fresh S/SW in the afternoon.

Precis: Risk of a thunderstorm.
City: Min 17 Max 28
Mandurah: Min 18 Max 27
UV Alert: 9:30 am to 3:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 7 [High]
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

Saturday Partly cloudy. Min 14 Max 23
Sunday Chance of a shower. Min 14 Max 24
Monday Cloudy. Min 12 Max 26
Tuesday Shower or two developing. Min 14 Max 26
Wednesday Shower or two. Min 14 Max 25
Thursday Cloudy. Min 14 Max 25

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite a significant area of shower and thunderstorm activity over the SW and inland regions of the SWLD. Should see storms kick up across Perth but mainly inland towards the hills.

Still looking towards a showery week with the first series of fronts.

[Anthony Violi]

Not sure if anyones noticed but Carnarvon is currently tracking at 2 degress below the April average, as is Newman. Certainly a good cool burst and its being enhanced by the cold pool thats riding up the west coast all the way up to Dampier

Certainly a sign of things to come, both here and over there. Will watch with interest if it can get close to the coldest April, right now its tracking in the top 10 coldest Aprils IIRC.

[Jake Smethurst]

Very interesting stuff Anthony. How did you fare with the thunderstorms Ozzie in Perth the other week? Whilst I was in Bali, everyone had heard of the monster hail storm!!

[ozzie]

It was pretty intense Jake! Didnt think it was really possible for Perth to get such a big hail storm, but where i was i got very little hail...

[ozzie]

Early next week is looking pretty good for some decent rainfall

[Karl Lijnders]

Bit of a cut off feature could bring some rain periods, thunderstorms and heavy showers with small hail. Should be fun with this feature potentially stalling for 5-6 days.

[ozzie]

Light rain all morning, currently 16 degrees!

[daviescr]

Bit of a cut off feature could bring some rain periods, thunderstorms and heavy showers with small hail. Should be fun with this feature potentially stalling for 5-6 days.

Nicely picked Karl, was just studying the 24hr sat loop and was very interesting to see the low stall so drastically!

Some dumb questions -

1) is this a classic cut off low?

2) It seems to be dipping south-easterly, as it does this, I presume it will gain momentum as it drops into the forties and head our way, right?

3) this is why we're expecting some prolonged rain periods early next week?

[Blackee]

Perth has its coldest May in 15 years
Press Release, Monday May 31, 2010 - 17:15 EST

Perth has just had its coldest May since 1995, and the wettest May in five years.

The minimum temperature for Perth in the last month averaged just nine degrees, two below the long-term average for May. This was the lowest average minimum in a decade.

Maximum temperatures weren’t as notable, averaging 22 degrees, very close to the long-term average for May. This came despite nine days in the month where the mercury stayed below 20 degrees, a feat which hasn’t happened in three years.

“There were a few intense low pressure systems that crossed the west coast of Western Australian this month,” said Samuel Terry, meteorologist for weatherzone.com.au. “These brought widespread cloud and rain, dropping day-time temperatures. As well as this, cooler winds and clear skies behind these systems brought cooler nights, making it Perth’s coldest May in 15 years.”

The Lower West district fared well in terms of rainfall this May. Many locations received between 80 and 100 percent of their long-term average. However, inland areas, such as Dwellingup and Karnet, didn’t do quite so well.

Perth managed to collect 89 millimetres of rain this month. This made it the wettest May in five years. There were also some heavy falls. The morning of Thursday the 13th saw nine millimetres fall in just five minutes, enough to cause localised flooding.

“On average Perth gets about 12 days of rain each May,” said Terry. “This year Perth only had seven rain days, but average rain, which tells us that the falls were heavier than usual.”

“Another low pressure cell is a chance to reach the west coast by the weekend. This could bring 20 to 40 millimetres more, along with gale-force winds.”

[daviescr]

Just over in the Perth area for a flying visit today and tomorrow. Finished my first job in Joondalup at 12 and looked north-west I saw a wonderfully defined anvil. Checked my schedule and I had a few hours spare. Time for a drive....

Headed north about 25ks hugging the coast as much as possible. Temp was about 18c (had been 20c in Joondalup at midday!) when I pulled into a beach car park to check things out. Loads of static on the radio, perhaps around 5-10 sparks per minute.

Immediately I saw my first ever waterspout! It was a good distance off, perhaps another 30ks away to the NW in open sea. It appeared very tenuous and ropey, and kept dancing around, touching down regularly, then after about 10 minutes of watching it sucked up and disappeared.

Jumped back in the car and kept going NNW along the coast as best I could. Drove under the most magnificent inflow band moving at a great rate of knots more or less perpendicular to the coastline. Finally got under the rain curtain, was wonderful heavy rain, I saw and heard one very close CG perhaps less than 1k away, and then it seemed to crash and burn as it hit land - I guess not enough warmth...

Gotta say I had forgotten that feeling you get with the chase. Well it's back, and this was a nice little trip to tantalise the tastebuds for the coming season!