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Perth/WA - Day to Day Weather Talk

Event discussion and analysis for southern Western Australia, including day to day weather.
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Pete
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Yeah, been keeping a close eye on that low... looks like no cyclone now. Doesn't have that tight circulation that the models were showing before. Pretty boring weather here in WA now. Waiting for the next thunderstorm event, which looks to be about a week away if the models hold. Cool and cloudy with showers here on the south coast, temperatures got down to the 11 - 13 degree mark on the coast last night, reached 21.4 degrees today.

Yeah, some awesome photos taken by the storm chasers here in WA on the 4th - 5th. My photos aren't as great, but still happy to have caught lightning, check mine out in the photography thread. :)

Oh and my videos from the storm here.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gunshot thunder. 8-)
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

ALBANY:
Remainder of Saturday: Partly cloudy. Moderate to fresh E/SE winds.
Sunday: A shower or two and chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Light to
moderate NE/NW winds, tending W/SW in the afternoon and freshening later.
Temperatures Min 19 Max 29
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by crikey »

Hi Pete and WA
Here is today's( 16th jan 2012) sat pic of a small isolated heat low off n/west WA.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Image
Looking back at BSCH surface wind stream ( GFS) forecast for today,from a previous post. Looks like this could be the low the model was forecasting for monday( today).
The sat pic indicates a little banding on the periphery, some evidence of clockwise rotation

The WATL wind forecast indicating some interesting and maybe some extreme weather for the s/west of WA. for thursday jan 19th and even better on the friday the 20th as that low intensifies and sits in the same region. 8-) :o
looks good for storms and rainfall?
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Yeah, yet another potentially big thunderstorm event on the cards for the next few days. Just a bit uncertain as to where they'll actually occur for Friday, Saturday. Tomorrow evening looks good for Perth. Strong E'ly winds will aid forced lifting associated with the trough. My call is for thunderstorms to develop late evening and continue overnight and into the early morning before clearing. Storms should then refire up during the afternoon. Hopefully there's not too much outflow from the storms, because when the storms died in the early morning with the last event, a lot of anvil cirrus was left over and it just wouldn't budge for most of the morning. So surface heating was ruined and the storms down here didn't turn out that great at all. Good parameters for this event, although shear could be better. Good surface convergence. Fingers crossed. Maps look interesting for Friday and Saturday down here. Heaviest rainfall looks to be in the inland mid-west to west coastal areas at this stage. Check out this map. http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... 2012011700" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; :shock:

Anyway it was a cold morning here, got down to 8.5 degrees at my place and 7.0 degrees at the airport.
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Heavy Rainfall
For people in an area bounded by Northampton, Mount Augustus, Three Rivers,
Mount Jackson, Wongan Hills, Lancelin and the coast. This includes people in,
near or between the following towns: Geraldton, Jurien Bay, Dalwallinu and
Meekatharra.

Issued at 11:15 am on Wednesday 18 January 2012

WEATHER SITUATION

A trough is positioned through the inland Gascoyne, extending down towards the
coast near Geraldton, with hot and humid conditions to the east of the trough.
People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during this
afternoon and evening. Storms may be accompanied by VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
conducive to FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAIL and DAMAGING WINDS that could result in
DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.

The overall weather pattern is not unusual for this time of year, but these
thunderstorms may
produce severe weather in localised areas.

WHAT TO DO
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises people to secure loose items, move
vehicles under cover and stay inside away from windows. If there is lightning
unplug electrical appliances and avoid using landline telephones. If caught
outside find shelter away from trees, powerlines, storm water drains and
streams. If driving through heavy rain slow down and turn your lights on or if
visibility becomes low pull over and park until it passes. For SES assistance
call 132 500. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 pm Wednesday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 213.
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

I'm sticking with my call. Perth will get the worst overnight and tomorrow morning.
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Well, its been a bit of a fail for Perth. Going off here big time, I'm gunna head out soon. :)
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by crikey »

Wow!! great convection Pete! 8-)

Good to note GFS ( BSCH) indicated this substantial troughing activity. and it has emerged Right on time !!
Posted on 16th of Jan . So BSCH ( GFS)saw this clearly 3 days ago
Looking pretty good atm ,with intensification coming , l believe tomorrow .
GFS indicated in particular for the south west ?
WZ have an article on this event atm
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/pert ... orms/20070" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The infra red 'sat pic' animation is looking fabulous. .
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... njava.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Some strong moist n/west inflow interacting with that trough along the WA coastline. THe animation is indicating significant development. Should be some good 'dumpers' along that trough line especially up north west arounf d the horn of WA by the looks
Image
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
For Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall
For people in an area bounded by Minilya to Mount Augustus to Beacon to Wongan
Hills to Lancelin, along the coast to Dongara and then inland to Minilya,
including the town of Dalwallinu.
The warning for the Perth Metropolitan Area has been CANCELLED.
Issued at 3:50 pm on Friday 20 January 2012


WEATHER SITUATION

People are advised that there is the continuing risk of severe thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms may cause HEAVY
RAINFALL conducive to FLASH FLOODING as well as DAMAGING WINDS that could cause
DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY. Hail is also possible.


A severe thunderstorm has been observed on RADAR in the
Moora/Badgingarra/Dalwallinu area.


While severe thunderstorms are no longer likely over the Perth Metropolitan
area, isolated thunderstorms and showers are still possible during Friday
afternoon and evening.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises people to secure loose items, move
vehicles under cover and stay inside away from windows. If there is lightning
unplug electrical appliances and avoid using landline telephones. If caught
outside find shelter away from trees, powerlines, storm water drains and
streams. If driving through heavy rain slow down and turn your lights on or if
visibility becomes low pull over and park until it passes. For SES assistance
call 132 500. For more safety tips visit http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The next warning will be issued by 7.00 pm WST Friday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 213.
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Yeah, severe thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and redevelop tomorrow further south and west. Haven't had any storms here yet. :( Perth had a massive line of thunderstorms go through the city during the early morning. Mandurah had 56mm in 3 hours. Intense lightning apparently. Check our facebook for photos. :)
https://www.facebook.com/wa.weathergroup" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Thunderstorm threat continues in Western Australia
Alex Zadnik, Saturday January 21, 2012 - 10:18 EDT

Severe thunderstorms have struck parts of western and central Western Australia over the past 48 hours and the threat of more wild weather continues today.

January rainfall records were smashed during Thursday night and Friday morning, as thunderstorm activity lashed numerous towns. The highest 24-hour rainfall total in the state was 99mm at Mingah Springs in the Gascoyne, which was a new daily record for January. Mandurah had its wettest January day in six years, with a total of 56.6mm.

Mandurah was also the focus of strong winds and a tremendous number of lightning strikes on Friday morning. A wind gust of 76km/h was recorded with thunderstorm activity, while over 2000 lightning strikes occurred within a 30km radius of the centre of town between midnight and midday on Friday.

The thunderstorm activity seen during Thursday and Friday was triggered by a deepening low pressure trough near the west coast. The severity of the storms was also enhanced due to high levels of atmospheric moisture.

Humidity levels were still elevated across central and western parts of the state on Saturday morning, while the low pressure trough was located near the west coast. Perth's dew point temperature at 6am was unusually high at 18 degrees, which is a value more commonly seen for an east coast city such as Sydney.

The dew point temperature is used to calculate relative humidity and values above 15 can be one significant factor in severe thunderstorm development. Water vapour is the 'fuel' for storms, releasing latent heat as it condenses into a liquid state. This latent heat release drives the strong updrafts within thunderstorm clouds creating more powerful and longer-lasting storms.

For today, the required conditions for severe thunderstorm activity remain across much of western, central and southern Western Australia. These factors include; high dew point temperatures, stronger upper level winds, a change in wind direction with height and the presence of a deepening low pressure trough.

This low pressure trough will edge a little further eastwards during the day, so while Perth is still a chance to see thunderstorms, areas stretching down through the Gascoyne, inland Central West, Central Wheat Belt, Great Southern and Southern Coastal districts are probably at greatest risk. Thunderstorms may develop during the morning hours but are likely to reach peak intensity into the afternoon once the sun has heated the ground intensely. Thunderstorms will also be a risk across the Southwest and Lower West districts.

It will be worth keeping an eye on the latest weather warnings through Saturday, as thunderstorms will have the potential to produce severe weather. Damaging wind gusts above 90km/h, large hail and heavy rainfall with associated flash flooding will all be risk factors with the storm activity.

The low pressure trough will edge a little further eastwards on Sunday, so drier conditions are expected along the west coast for areas southwest of a line from Geraldton to Albany (including Perth, Rockingham, Mandurah and Bunbury). However, thunderstorms are still likely across the Gascoyne, Central Wheat Belt, Southeast Coastal and Goldfields districts on Sunday. So all-in-all it is looking like a stormy weekend ahead.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Soundings are in. I've replotted them with current obs.
Image

Perth sounding.
Image

Look at the CAPE. :shock:
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Bust today, mostly. :( I took photos of the storms, but they died before getting here.

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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Perth's hot summer will ramp-up this week with the first heat wave of the season on the way.

In December, Perth averaged a maximum of 30.4 degrees which is 1.5 above the monthly average. Despite the steamy start to summer Perth is yet to crack the 40 degree mark or experience a heat wave. The hottest summer day so far was December 28 when the mercury peaked at 39.9. In early December Perth had four consecutive days of maximums five degrees above the monthly average, just missing out on an official heatwave by one day.

Both 40 degree maximums and a heat wave are looking likely to strike Perth this week. A slow moving high pressure system in The Bight is directing easterly winds over the nation. As these winds move over the interior they are dragging vast amounts of heat towards the west coast.

Perth's average maximum temperature in January is 30.9 degrees. The lowest forecast maximum this week is 36 on Monday, with the heat building during the week to a 40 degrees forecast on Australia Day Thursday and Friday. For the weekend it will drop a degree or two with tops in the high thirties likely. Should these maximums be achieved it will be seven straight days where maximums exceed five above the average, making it the first heatwave of the season.

Next week should bring some welcome cooler conditions as the hottest airmass moves away. Keep an eye on weatherzone.com.au for the latest updates.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Perth going for 39 degrees on Wednesday, 40 degrees for Australia Day and Thursday, and then another 39 degrees for Friday. A lot of the state will be above 35 degrees for Australia day. Even down here on the coast, its expected to get to 32 degrees, but the E'lies should keep things cooler, since they're onshore.
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by brayden »

Yep the notorious heatwave of Perth ;)

We need a coldfront lol
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

ALBANY:
Remainder of Monday: Partly cloudy. Fresh E/SE winds.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Moderate to fresh E/NE winds, easing by midday.
Temperatures Min 14 Max 25
UV Alert: 8:10 am to 4:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Outlook for:
Wednesday : Evening showers and thunderstorms. Min 15 Max 31
Thursday : Shower or two. Thunderstorm risk. Min 19 Max 24
Friday : Shower or two. Min 16 Max 20
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by crikey »

Hi Pete..
Thanks for updates. I do read them :P
Here is WATL wind forecast for Thursday 2nd Feb of this event. It looked the best scenario, especially for you down near Albany . Looks to be a small area of low pressure that is likely to form right over you on Thursday by the looks.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like ex cyclone IGGY comes pretty close to North of Perth as a Tropical storm. Should be lots of moisture around.??
Only 10mm you say? Any other models got higher amounts for the west and s/west coast of WA ??

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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

WZ saying 10-20mm tomorrow. We sure as hell need it. GFS is on drugs as usual. :roll: Predicting 100mm+ for some areas and less than 5mm for others. With such widespread cloud cover, I'd say there could most areas in the southwest could pick up 10-20mm, and maybe more under thunderstorms. Some areas north of Perth picked up 22mm tonight. :o And the cyclone is still fairly organised. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow. :)
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Re: Perth/Western Australia - General Weather and Obs

Post by Pete »

Had a cold front go through overnight followed by a cold pool of air. We got a few showers. :) Been a cool day with the App Temp hovering around 11C. Quite a welcome change, and a few cool nights ahead. In fact, I'm sick of summer. Bring on winter.
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