Victoria: A bit of everything: 8-15 Jan 2016

[Gordon]

Sorry about the clumsy thread title (mods please feel free to change it!) but I can't think of a better description right now and we need a new thread for the interesting week ahead.

Depending on where you live, it looks like mild, then very warm, then a small respite with a shower or two on the 11th, then hot, then possibly a decent rain event sometime between the 13th and 15th.

[Gordon]

Latest GFS has us down for 75 mm, EC 25 mm - I'll meet them in the middle and take 50 mm .

[hillybilly]

I'll meet them in the middle and take 50 mm

Progs are pretty jumpy. Today's EC has around 25mm in FC (12 hours ago was 50mm). GFS about 20mm (from about 30mm). ACCESS has gone the other way, and looks like about 20mm to me. They are tending to bring the system forwards to Wednesday.

Good to see another opportunity so soon after the last bust

At this point I'll be happy with anything over 15mm, and over the moon with anything over 25mm.

Models pointing to something the week after - or at least a chance - so look to be avoiding the long block heatwave scenario that is pretty common this time of year.

[Geoff]

Interesting to compare this morning's GFS with the one Gordon posted above yesterday. Just goes to show how the models are struggling recently with rainfall predictions. At least with a cold front coming up from the S/W we should definitely get something here this time, though a windy day before the rain could make things nasty up here.



(As an aside, I've noticed GFS almost always has a bullseye of high rainfall totals in the top right hand corner, looks to be the Barrington Tops area.)

[Gordon]

Interesting to compare this morning's GFS with the one Gordon posted above yesterday.

I was certain it would bounce around but thought it might be interesting as a starting point - and who knows, one day we might look at a model 7 days out and it will prove correct

Water & Land is hanging in there with a half decent event, so that's something!

[Tassiedave]

29 degrees in Launceston today and 30 at Launceston Airport. Forecast is for 34 degrees tomorrow!! A total fire ban has been declared for northern Tasmania. Still only 0.8 mm of rain since Boxing Day. Looks like a front will cross Thursday bringing a few mm of rain.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

When is the Wind. ?
wanting to plan my week out - Hot and Windy is not required in this plan..

[Geoff]

No strong winds in the forecast Shell, moderate breezes at best. Strongest wind with the cooler wetter weather on Thursday is the current guess.

[Dane]

Yeah a lot of us still hanging out for rain especially in the Central and SW parts of the state which basically missed the last event. City and most western suburbs still yet to record Rain this year. I have only had 0.4mm's here in Cranbourne.
Hoping the next event later next week can give us something at least.

[Tassiedave]

Didn't get to the forecast temperature in Launceston today but it did get to 30.5 degrees at 245. Launceston Airport reached 32.5 with the highest in Tassie being 34.6 degrees in Cressy in the Central north. I notice that western Victoria are in for some serious heat on Wednesday with BOM forecasting 42 for Horsham and 44 for Mildura.

[hillybilly]

Nice 21C in FC yesterday. Was foggy first thing and quite humid.

Drove up to Port Germein for a week of camping (it's way up top of Spencers Gulf). Interesting drive up - you could see the patchy nature of the storms - the area from northwest of Bendigo to Mildura had obviously done well in spots. Was some water lying in some of the paddocks and oddly the grass at the side of the road had turned green in spots. Still, not water in any dams or creeks (to speak of).

Progs are dancing around. EC dropped to 10mm yesterday and back to 30mm. GFS went ~10mm to 30mm to ~10mm. ACCESS is rather more stable, sitting aroun 10 to 25m. Thinking somehting around ACCESS is a good bet, could do worse, or do better depending on the final details.

Monday's interesting - quite moist air and a slow lingering trough. GFS and EC both have falls - not large but lumpy so should be showers and storms. Thankfully, not much wind to speak of.

[stevco123]

My weather station is forecasting 40 degrees on Wednesday but only 19 on Thursday at this stage.

[hillybilly]

Stinker in FC today. 29C which is about 35C equivalent at sea level.

Tough tomorrow - all the progs have showers and some including UK and ACCESS-APS2 have up to 10mm in central areas. That would be a welcome surprise!

Thinking dribbles, and hoping for more.

Thursday could be anywhere between 3 and 33mm EC and ACCESS are keen, but GFS is on-off-on-off (currently off).

Band of showers moving through western/central areas currently - was high based in SA with little reaching the ground. Here's a photo I took as it passed of Telowrie (SA). Look pretty, but only spits.

[Gordon]

Amazing the line between the southerly and northerly influence today. Fog and 13 C outside at 7 am, 30 C and full sun by 11.30 am.

Currently cloudy and back to mid 20s. I notice several coastal locations struggled to crack 20 C all day.

[hillybilly]

A few showers/storms back in SA. Might get a sprinkle today or not Hoping for a mm or two (or more), but wouldn't be surprised with zilch.

Wednesday looks seriously hot then much colder on Thursday. Progs showing 10-25mm for Thursday. EC best, GFS "worst". ACCESS inbetween. Thankfully, after that heat a long spell of warm/mild weather.

[Jake Smethurst]

Apologies for the forum/website outage. All should be working again

Edit: Just getting a very very light shower here in Parkdale. But can see some minor convection already.

[Gordon]

Good we're back up - looking too interesting

A few showers have skirted here so far, including quite a big one (storm?) to our south. However the real action seems to be back near the SA border?

[Onetahuti]

Apologies for the forum/website outage. All should be working again

Edit: Just getting a very very light shower here in Parkdale. But can see some minor convection already.

Well the title of the thread is "a bit of everything" , just this bit of the website being out was not invisaged in the name.
Certainly getting hot even with the cloud cover that we now have, usually have my lady out of the nursing home on a Monday but we decided it was simply too hot for her to come out of the air conditioning. Will be good thing to get a shower out of what is showing on radar, anything will be a blessing.

[Jake Smethurst]

The severe thunderstorm warning has been extended (see below), and radar definitely increasing in activity over the past couple of hours. Still relatively hit and miss, though a good chance for the rest of this afternoon to score a thundery shower. Heavy bursts of rain with them, but not much total-wise.

Melbourne's temperature was only forecast to reach 34 degrees in this morning's update, however the BoM sensibly updated it around noon to 36 degrees, which is generally what the city is currently sitting at.

Edit - The storm between Avalon and Werribee was showing very strong winds on doppler a short time ago.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in the Central, Mallee, North Central, Wimmera and parts of the South West, Northern Country and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
Issued at 2:58 pm Monday, 11 January 2016.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Geelong and Melbourne.

[Geoff]

Best looking radar I've seen since Boxing Day! Even if the storms/showers miss us (which they usually do), the rain band following seems to be expanding and could well give us a few mm.