The Australian Weather Forum

Another warming trend then the prospects of some more rain. January 30th sees temps warm into the 30's then high 30s on the 31st, perhaps touching low 40s in the northwest/west. Thankfully little wind in the charts - looks like a great night for the beach or pool!

Change moves into central areas by middle of the 1st with cloud and perhaps the odd shower or storm

Then the trough stalls and GFS, ACCESS and EC has rain developing for a couple of days starting around January 2 as an upper trough builds to our west. Current progs have heavy falls, but have been jumping up and down so a lot of uncertainty. Would be good to start the new year with a big fall

Just had a willy willy come through here. Wind average before and after is 15 to 20kmh, the willy willy produced a wild gust of 50km/h.

Was quite interesting actually.

Quite interesting that you brought that up stevo as we had something similar happen back at Burnside Heights two weeks ago. Unfortunately for us it resulted in half a dozen of our roof tiles being displaced around the gas flue including the collar around the flue itself. Apparently it was a microburst according to the SES who attended. Bloody annoying trying to get fixed a week out from Christmas but we managed to get it done.

Beautiful day here in Cowes. Quite warm in the sun, but the cool breeze kept the temperature in check. I'll be hitting the roads on the bike around the island tomorrow morning for what is expected to be more perfect conditions for cycling.

Fingers crossed this possible new years rain event comes off, will be an ideal follow up to last weekend's rainfall.

Does anyone know how much rain Melbourne has had this year?

I've had 777mm on the mountain and a totally rubbish
434mm at work in Macedon. I knew it was going to be below average but I was surprised to see such low yearly totals at both places.

Bring on the new year.

Macedonian wrote:Does anyone know how much rain Melbourne has had this year?

(From Weatherzone)

About 210mm below average, but amazingly still ahead of last year!

Progs looking a bit more thundery in the latest runs. Upper trough slowly build to out west. EC has showers every day for a ~week starting Saturday and GFS/ACCESS look pretty similar. Looks hit and miss - and best in the northeast (as is usual!).

Warming up for tomorrow, and a hot New Years Eve, but not much wind and only one hot day at this stage for central areas with an overnight/early Friday wind change.

Macedonian, yet to add my total but think we are on about 1100mm. About 200mm below average. We did well in Jan, Jul, Aug and sneaked 100mm in Nov and and 80mm in Dec which has really saved the year for us. In August we scored just less than 170mm, while areas just 100km to the west got less than 10mm

Sitting on 46.8mm's MTD - Ave is 69mm's
YTD is 599.6mm's much less than last years 736mm's and well below the average of 771mm's.
Will be the driest year here since 2008 and only the 3rd year below 600mm's in my 14 years of records.
Almost certain that that will be it for rainfall this year.
Tipping a better year of rain next year - thinking close to average 700 to 800mm's.

Dane » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:30 pm wrote:

Dane wrote:Sitting on 46.8mm's MTD - Ave is 69mm's
YTD is 599.6mm's much less than last years 736mm's and well below the average of 771mm's.
Will be the driest year here since 2008 and only the 3rd year below 600mm's in my 14 years of records.
Almost certain that that will be it for rainfall this year.
Tipping a better year of rain next year - thinking close to average 700 to 800mm's.

Especially with talk of signs of a bunper La Nina coming possibly...

Latest GFS looks good. ACCESS has gone off the event, and EC is moving it sligthly east and hence missing central areas. Pretty finely balanced.

Thursday's wind change getting earlier - ACCESS-R now has it early evening in Melbourne. Would be good if we could avoid a stinking hot night.

Starting to look like a non event for here now. EC has zero rain for here in the next 10 days, GFS 5mm from a few showers, need more than that.

Just over 580mm for the year here. That's very dry but still above the 1982 and 1994 El Nino years, so not the worst.

Models will twist and turn constantly with this setup. GFS has 25-30mm here and EC (which is terrible for convection based rainfall) still has 7mm on Sunday locally so it's not as if it has completely gone off for everywhere.

The main thing is that humidity will be high for an extended period, and where there's moisture there's always the possibility of decent rain.

Looks likesummer is here but not many people around even at the beach.

These ex cyclones type things that come from the north usually have some rain in them, anything could happen, BOM is on holidays, got the usual work experience kids doing the forecasting.

If the low in the centre can suck just a bit more, be biblical floods.
If it moves west, it could move back east.
Probably just become a weak trough

Well, well, well, GFS is suddenly very interested again.....

Well, well, well, GFS is suddenly very interested again.

EC and ACCESS both back on board. EC has local falls to 50mm in central Vic (including Mt Macedon). Fingers crossed!

Is finely balanced... NSW and far eastern Vic has good upslide, as you move into central/western Vic it looks touch and go.

Interesting day today - no real weather - just hot and thankfully not much wind, but will be a battle between the sea breeze and the synoptic northerly. ACCESS has the sea breeze "change" pushing up during the day (has it about 8pm here). The proper front comes through early tomorrow.

Thanks guys. Hopefully the wind stays away today.

That's a another year of low totals for Melbourne.

The discrepancy between my YTD total here at work and Droughtbreakers total is too great.
I don't personally do the rain gauge here. I think there must be a mistake here. I also think the gauge is in a dodgy location.
I can't see why we would be lower than melbournes total. It doesn't seem right.

Anyhow Happy New Year, please let it be a wetter one.

Nice to see a solid week of mild humid easterlies after this heat clears out.

As mentioned previously, the major models are back on board for a multi day rain/storm event. Who knows what we all actually end up with, but I'd say with so many consecutive days with a favorable pattern most of us should see something.

Only downside in the models is that the west coast doesn't look like getting much, it's mostly an inland and ranges event at this stage.

Thanks hillybilly and Happy New Year to you, Jake and Geoff and everyone here at the AWF

Latest ACCESS-R encouraging for rainfall. It has patchy light showers/rain developing in a band on Saturday through the middle of the state and the focus tending to move west on Sunday. EC ensemble also looks good - probably better than the EC single run (yr) so pretty confident. Latest GFS is doing it's usual crazy wet/dry lines on the 18Z run (I find that 18Z and 6Z runs do this a lot) and don't read too much into the lines, but more at the patterns.

33.5C here currently. Curiously the DP has started to rise. ACCESS-C had this, and I suspect it's because we are mixing in some of the sea breeze air from the southeast. The sea breeze change/pre-frontal trough is about to his the bayside suburbs around Elwood and will take a while to edge in next few hours. Temps will drop butit could get really humid with ACCESS-C suggesting surface DPs could jump up towards 20C in spots (shame the uppers are so hot and dry and hence will kill of any convection).

Dry, dry, dry here in Northern Tasmania. 33 degrees in Launceston, our 10th 30 degrees plus day for 2015 (Average is 4.3 which we are continually smashing of late). It is our fifth 30 plus in December alone. Only 28.4 mm for December in Launceston. Getting jealous looking at GFS, ACCESS etc. We are going to have days ahead sitting under HIGH pressure with little prospect of rain.