The Australian Weather Forum

Models seem to be sticking with this one so far - let's hope it ends a dry year on a positive note !

I'm coming over to Victoria for the Boxing Day test. Will I see any play on Day 1?

Thanks Gordon. That would be great hope it's not too much for Boxing day test Tassiedave

Quick look across the models for boxing day. JMA has 15-30mm, EC 20-50m, GFS 20-30mm, ACCESS-APS2 20-50mm for most of Vic. Thinking it is holding or upgrading on the latest runs. All models have spot falls approaching 50mm. Best falls seem to be in central areas and about the northeast. Only 3-4 days until it starts so has to be getting pretty confident.

Thinking anyone planning to go to the G on Boxing Day might be disappointed (but hey that could change... but geez I hope not ).

As long as Christmas day is mainly dry I'll be happy. Don't particularly want to be spending 3-4 hours driving around in wet weather.

Of course once we are finally in Cowes at the end of the day.......

I'm not feeling too overly confident at this stage, given previous systems, which is unusual for me But in saying that, the models are looking quite good with healthy falls, though it does look like the west will again miss a lot of the activity. Will have to wait and see.

Skywalker » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:19 pm wrote:

Skywalker wrote:As long as Christmas day is mainly dry I'll be happy.

Don't think anything will really develop until after midnight Friday, so early hours of Saturday morning, for Melbourne at least

Oh dear, GFS 06z update now going for a measly 5mm for Melbourne area in the next week. 25-50mm only in the far N/E of Vic.

Progs doing a few jumps.

EC up to ~40mm... but GFS down to 10mm. ACCESS and ACCESS-APS2 have~15-30mm with totals increasing rapidly from west to east in central Victoria. All models tending to produce some heavy falls, mainly east.

Some showers today, but trough is a little too far east (I fear) for most of us. Very humid, but southerlies dampen our chances this arvo. Fingers crossed for a surprise.

Work is done and dusted for the year! First morning of holidays.

I'm hoping these so called models are wrong and we finally get the desperate needed heavy rainfall statewide, not just in the east/north east again.

A bit of surprise convective cloud trying to get organised here - a little cell just to our north-east (near Blackwood) has started producing a bit of rain.

Latest BOM update is a wet dream! (if you'll pardon the expression).

Geoff » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:45 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:Latest BOM update is a wet dream! (if you'll pardon the expression).

The forecast of rain that the bureau is going for here is not my dream as I always have the extended family here on Boxing day, tradition has it that it is in the backyard. Will be a tight fit inside as generally expect around 30 to lob here.
The garden though will absolutely love it.

Geoff » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:45 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:Latest BOM update is a wet dream! (if you'll pardon the expression).

Well that's officially killed off chance of rain. Whenever those clowns start making outrageous rainfall predictions the opposite generally occurs.

I hope you've got that humble pie in the fridge ready to eat Skywalker!

Well....I was kinda referring to it raining in the western desert (have to cover myself there as we both know there's a much higher chance of it raining down at Cowes in the south east).

I do hope I'm wrong Geoff and it pours down to give my new trees the desperately needed kick along they need from the heavens. Then I will gladly wear that pie on my face.

Progs all sat on ~20 to ~40mm for central and eastern areas. The far west looks more like 5mm. Remarkable consistency.. and could well be the best rain event since January if it comes off.

Thinking 30mm in FC. Our summers on a knife edge... things are just barely green. Hope this one is general across the state and puts a dampener or what is a horror start to summer for farmers, the environment and firies.

From the BoM forcast for Central areas for Saturday:
"Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, mostly clearing by evening. The risk of thunderstorms. Heavy falls exceeding 70 mm possible."

This was this morning.
Peter

I'm very confident we will see 5mm of showers in Melbourne

They will of course come later than expected and we will all be p1ssed off at how little rain we got.

2 days off in 2015 is like 2 weeks off in a wet year model wise

I'm predicting no more than 10mm here in Bendigo. There is zero moisture left in the soil, and I saw a queue of 5 water trucks at the local stand-pipe this week.

BOM have dropped away from their 10 to 40mm's - now going for 8 to 20mm's.
Only going for 4 to 10mm's in Cranbourne.