Victoria: Late summer cool/cold snap Feb 18 to 21 2014

[johnno]

Looking more and more likely we will see a decent cold snap for this time of the year for mid week with temps falling down to as close as 0c at 850hPa with snow expected down to as low as 1500 metres. This will feel like a shock to some people after the extreme heat of the past 7 weeks. Some rainfall is also predicted mostly for southern and mountain areas with both EC and GFS ramping rainfall up tonight for Tuesday night into Wednesday (EC 10-20mm) (GFS seems bit to excited for me with large areas of 25mm+) we should get a good decent showers band possibly may even be a rainband then coldies to follow after that and with a very warm bay it could get interesting.

[Geoff]

Yep, these are the events that really get me excited for this area, we nearly always do well from these cold blasts from the S/W, can't wait!

[Rivergirl]

Sounds good I was at Mt Martha for the weekend and there was hardly any rain, just a light drizzle this morning

[Wilko]

EC has 60mm here this week
Slight overestimation but may be an indication of what's to come
The bay effect could be Big

[Geoff]

EC has 60mm here this week
Slight overestimation but may be an indication of what's to come
The bay effect could be Big

Where did you get that 60mm figure from Wilko? EC only has about 30mm for us up here this week, and we would expect to get much more than Highett with this set up.

[Wilko]

Hi Geoff
I think this is EC
Please see the URL
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Skywalker]

Hi Geoff
I think this is EC
Please see the URL
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I just punched in Caroline Springs and it's predicting 18mm for my area.

We will be lucky to get double fingers here. It's a south westerly set up so we'll get bugger all.

[Geoff]

Hi Geoff
I think this is EC
Please see the URL
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes that's EC on Norwegian, must be a glitch there I'd say, according to that you'll get 60mm+ in 24 hours from mid Wednesday to mid Thursday, it won't happen!

[johnno]

I don't think its a glitch Geoff it has it for most of the south east suburbs including Caulfield etc etc even the city it has 30mm or so now so there has been an upgrade overnight, when I first looked at EC the synoptics it looked like an upgrade to me then I went to Norwegian and wasn't surprised with the higher falls, in saying this I expect some sort of downgrade to some extent tonight but wouldn't rule out odd spots of 50mm or so with the warm bay east and north east of the city with this event.

[johnno]

EC and GFS had 2-5mm Saturday mornings 12z runs for sat night and sun morning north of the city and CBD end result was around 10mm in some of the northern suburbs and 13mm in the CBD so you can sort of see how the bay plays a big part this time of year. So anything EC has north east and east of the city you can almost double it... 30mm is the general consensus so would not surprise me if we see 60mm falls out that way somewhere

[Wilko]

I hope your close to the mark Johnno
We've had only 18mm Ytd

[Geoff]

Yes Johnno it could well be a good producer. My main reason for doubt is that this is a prime set-up for the Dandenongs to do well, and yet they're predicting 50% less rainfall for here than in Highett, when we would often get double what they get, very odd. Will be interesting to see the figures in the next update.

[I_Love_Storms]

I'm liking the look of this. EC has been onto it for a few days. GFS not as keen, but I am happy to trust EC! Normally good with these SW fronts. Expecting it to be very wet in SE suburbs. Probably about 20-50mm for Rowville area - and even higher totals possible for Ferny Creek.

[Wilko]

For what it's worth Looks like a direct hit according to the Swellchart
http://www.yosurfer.com/surf_reports/swp/map/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Geoff]

EC (Norwegian) has finally come to its senses and now has programmed about 30mm for Highett, but still only has 20mm for Olinda, so hasn't got to grips with the set up entirely, I agree with hillybilly - this set up can easily give us 40mm-50mm, sometimes more.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

When will the rain begin..? not that Im being picky at all,
bring it on I say, Im sick of watering.

[Geoff]

When will the rain begin..?

GFS and AccessG both have it reaching the Melbourne area by around 6am on Wednesday Shell, so just a little watering to get things through tomorrow and then you can put yer feet up for a while!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Haven't lost any established plants, a new one may not make it through,
My apple has blossom, maybe confused.
Rain Guage might need dusting out today.

[Didjman]

Beautiful view of fog toward Yan Yean this morning. A cool 11.6/10.7. cloudless sky.
Peter

[Geoff]

Huge downgrade by EC this morning, just 5mm for Olinda and Melbourne, and around 20mm for bayside suburbs. GFS and NCEP both still keen with 25mm generally for most of the area. I think EC are having problems, I'll be flabbergasted if we only get 5mm from this event.