Victoria: Cooler & Wetter 13 Feb >

[Gordon]

Not that it would hard after the last month! But the models all seem to be agreeing on at least some rain for many parts of Victoria from Thursday to Sunday, and a gradual shift away from the extreme heat - for example, Ballarat's BOM 7 day forecast this evening has only two 30+ days, down from four this morning (5 including today).

[Rivergirl]

Heaven Thanks Gordon

[Jake Smethurst]

Thank for starting Gordon! Certainly looks interesting and hopefully we can score some decent falls across the state if things fall into place.

We wrote this on our Facebook page earlier this evening (see pic on our FB):

POSSIBLE RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA
Written by The Australian Weather Forum
Issued: 7:40pm

With southeast Australia being affected by high temperatures and baked with relentless heatwave after heatwave so far this Summer, many have begun to wonder where the world's most natural resource is. Of course we are talking about water, or in weather terms, rainfall. But more importantly, people are asking when the next bout of rainfall will be.

After analysing the latest computer models, the team here at The Australian Weather Forum believe we may be on the verge of a rain event later next week.

For a number of days, models have been throwing up the idea of a broad trough of low pressure and associated tropical incursion moving down from northern and northwest Australia through South Australia and into the southeast. At this early stage, most of the models have this, but do vary in regards to how intense the tropical burst will be and the positioning of the trough of low pressure.

Below is an image of two computer models, GFS (on the top) and ACCESS-G (on the bottom) respectively. Both of these models indicate the broad trough and moisture extending towards the southeast and affecting the southeast, including Victoria. As is more than likely obvious, a wide range of totals between 10-80mm are being computed by the two different models.

At this early stage, the team believe some sort of tropical event will develop either next Thursday or Friday and persist for a couple of days (in Victoria). It's not possible to forecast exact totals yet, but somewhere within the range of 10-40mm is likely with locally higher falls.

As we move closer towards later next week and as models firm up on the idea, the team will keep you posted on how things are likely to pan out.

[Dane]

The Bom seem to think that most of the rain from this upcoming system will fall in the north of the state.
Bom only going for a shower or two for Melbourne on Thursday through to Sunday.

[johnno]

Not convinced at all with this event.. Most the the rain looks like it will go over northern Vic and moreso through SA and into NSW, EC has been this way for days and now ACCESS is leaning the same way and even the most recent update of GFS (06z) is starting to show similar signs. At this stage I see Melbourne getting very little unless progs change.

[Gordon]

Latest Access looking pretty good; GFS not bad. A lot of divergence in the synoptics between the two for only a few days out, so my amateurish sense is that this will be a 'look out the window' event which has been so typical of the struggling models in recent months. (Water & Land this morning gives two thirds of the state 10 mm plus.)

One thing that all models seem pretty clear on is that the awful heat pattern that's dominated for the last month will break down for quite a while and that is unequivocally good news.

(PS Not enjoying the smell of burning coal this morning - must be strong in Melbourne?)

[Dane]

Really smoky here in Cranbourne and no doubt most of Melbourne as that bushfire smoke is right over us.
Sun is shining weakly through it.

[dazrain]

Really smoky here in Cranbourne and no doubt most of Melbourne as that bushfire smoke is right over shining weakly through it.

looking at ARPANSA, given a clear sky the smoke effect is huge, about 30% less UV then forecast.

http://www.arpansa.gov.au/uvindex/realtime/mel_rt.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Didjman]

Extremely smokey here - no surprise lol. All emergency warnings are now downgraded to watch and act.
Bring on some tropical rain!
Peter

[Wilko]

Out with appointments all day and so smokey all round Melbourne
Not good for my Asthma
Nasty Summer with garden crispy now and our 2 big liquid amber trees dropping branches etc
Looks like we're not out of the woods yet
Most of rain forecast to go to our north
It's so so dry
We need 50mm+ before something nasty turns up

[Skywalker]

My tank has finally run dry here, so now it's all mains watering for me. Ka Ching, ka Ching, $$$$.

Been a very nervous few days for my family. Parents at Kilmore have escaped a bullet with the fires. Yesterday it was heading right for them, but fortunately was held back.

Desperately need something in terms of rainfall. Fingers crossed for Thursday/Friday.

[Jake Smethurst]

Unfortunately the models do appear to have shifted the majority of the best falls away from southern Victoria, now looking at around 1-10mm. Of course for those in northern areas it still looks like some significant totals will be accumulated there, potentially up to 50mm roughly. But of course models can still change, however they have become more consistent the last day or so, regarding GFS, ACCESS and EC in positioning the best moisture further north. This will be the best rain potential in a long time and it appears that it will be the best one for a while too with extended models not really showing anything else of significant that I can see.

[droughtbreaker]

Serious smoke around here as you would expect. Visibility is only about 2km at best. A run of light winds ahead will trap the smoke for some time unless we can get rain on Saturday as GFS is progging.

I don't really know what to make of this upcoming system. EC still progging next to nothing for most of the state despite showing big falls for just one run (which was yesterday morning's run). BOM ACCESS has a little each way. It shows reasonable falls down as far as the ranges but not much else.

I'm still hopeful for 5-10mm here which would be a pittance but better than nothing.

Big shift in the patterns evident. The upper high that we have been stuck under for much of the last month is replaced by a significant upper trough that at this stage stays with us for at least the next 10 days and intensifies into a major upper system late in the model runs. There is little over 30C for the next 10 days+ at this stage, at least for on and south of the ranges, and even tomorrow has downgraded to a 'normal' hot summer day rather than an extreme one, with 40C only likely in the far north of the state.

If the models hold on this then it is possible that we have seen the last of the extreme heat as it will be getting late in the month by the time heat builds up again, and at that stage the sun's intensity is backing right off as the most intense of the sun's radiation moves back towards Papua New Guinea and Indonesia on its way to the equator.

There will still be some hot spells in March with bad fire weather, but IMHO we shouldn't see much in the way of high 30s and 40s for days on end. Hopefully I'm not tempting fate though.

[johnno]

Yeah as I was saying the other day looking like an inland/northern vic event to me with little for Melbourne we will be lucky to scrape 5mm. Good for northern Vic but badly need rain down here too especially around the fires area.

[johnno]

Need rain either way cos if it doesn't now and its so crisp out there doesn't matter if the temp is 43c or 28c if we have a gale blowing fires will take off no matter what now that's how bad things have gotten.. Just need the rain its not so much the extreme heat that concerns me anymore

[droughtbreaker]

If the models are right about the upper trough, and especially the intensification showing up on the progs later in the 10 day runs, then I think we will find the chances of significant rainfall events from lows and cold fronts over time massively increase compared to under the quasi stationary high we have seen for most of the past month.

I am looking at the long term and larger scale trends, not just the short term and local scale.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looking at the 850s on GFS for the next week, it certainly looks like the interior will cool down a bit, reducing the risk of any heatwaves in the near future. This week look likes predominately S/SE/SW flows. With the tropical moisture brewing through the middle of the country hopefully any further northerlies will bring it down and we can enjoy some long awaited storms and some good rain.

[sparra]

Never have i seen 100% chance of rain for us but that is what weatherzone have....for now anyway.....100% 10-20mm for Friday 80% 10-20mm for Thursday.....will be good for the garden and tanks and make a welcome relief from day after day of heat.

[I_Love_Storms]

Nice to have a bit of typical humidity back with warm weather rather than those disgusting hot air masses. If only a trigger was present we could have some nice rain and storms.

[Pane]

G'day

Just listened to the bom on the country hour and geez did he talk it down. Other than the nth west of the state they made it sound as though the rest would be lucky to get some decent showers!

Elders saying 80% 5-10 tomora with a late shower and 90% 10-20 for Friday.

Can someone put up a map for the coming few days, or a link to the models.

Cheers