The Australian Weather Forum

Okay, looking a bit like deja-vu this week with a couple of warm days followed by another low pressure trough coming down the east side of the country to give potentially another very wet period later this week, especially for southern and eastern Vic. Another event that will have a few surprises thrown in no doubt, best taken one day at a time as it unfolds. Good times to be a weather nut!

Well considering that the wet season up north has started early its not surprising too see wet stuff making its way down here too, the neutral INO conditions are on average a little wetter than normal, especially around this time of year leading up too and including christmas after that things should dry out and we will get more hot summer weather (bout time I say).

Met a dude from Rockhampton on Fri night, who said the the wet season started last week up there, and then those storms hit...

Several parts of Gippsland are going to be under water by the look of it.

Will be interesting to see if the system can push further west like the other one -then parts of Central may be under water as well.

Models have downgraded to me in fact some models have not been interested from the start with this system only EC was then ACCESS in patches and GFS yesterday and this morning but apart from that I don't see much happening around here, EC and GFS seem to have weakened the upper low other models don't even want a bar of it.

tre75 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:24 am wrote:

tre75 wrote:Well considering that the wet season up north has started early its not surprising too see wet stuff making its way down here too, the neutral INO conditions are on average a little wetter than normal, especially around this time of year leading up too and including christmas after that things should dry out and we will get more hot summer weather (bout time I say).

No hot, dry weather please... it makes me frightened, I cannot stand the bushfire threat in my area and I really want a humid, wet, stormy summer instead! If it must get hot (ie. 35C or more) then it had better be oppressively humid with the risk of storms and torrential rainfall!!

Any chance of storms hitting Melbourne during the next few days with this system, especially tomorrow afternoon/evening? It feels like AGES since we've had a good storm event and I'm getting really tired of waiting, those further north up the East Coast seem to be hogging all the action...

I think this event could throw up some surprises as it evolves. It's very touch and go though, however some models do suggest significant falls across parts of southern and particularly eastern Victoria. It is one to watch closely, where the trough moves and if a low can develop close to Victoria or somewhere over the state.

Relatively confident the thunderstorm season for Victoria isn't too far off (and hotter conditions), models are consistently showing more and more instability on the progs (and heat encroaching on the state). Even this week there could be some thunderstorms about, but very complex and like I mentioned depends on the movement of the trough and potential low.

I think tomorrow does pose a risk of isolated thunderstorms near the frontal system, but the risk is only moderate. Then thunderstorms remain possible most of the week somewhere in the state.

Can't see much rain on the horizon other than a few showers here and there - nothing like the last system. May get lucky one day if the timing is right. Next week is looking hotter

I am quite optimistic we will get some decent rain at some stage
over the next 4-5days
Gee it's a complicated set up
GFS looks ok to me
We just need that potent mix of cold and tropical are to mix
and it's again a watch and see scenario for it doesn't take much
for the position of the trough line/low to make things interesting
Again the forecast SW winds from Thursday could set the warming Bay off !
Good times

The low seems to be pushing down from the Nw corner of vic. Baro is dropping here too (from1012.5 to1010.9 since noon) in the southerly wind. Could be an interesting evening if that is correct.
Peter

The latest BOM 4 day chart doesn't do anything to reduce my own optimism for this event with the low hanging around for days and staying nice & central too.

On the BOM charts on their own I'd call this a 50 mm event for us, so something like moisture or lift must be missing for BOM to downgrade to a forecast that's now largely a 'shower or two' forecast.

I'm with you Gordon however the bom did not sound too optimistic this morning
The bom mentioned that the low will center right over Melbourne a bit like the eye of the storm
Nice and calm and clear air
Anyhow you would think we would get quite a bit of weather out of this some time or place

Quite Humid out there today with DP's around most suburbs in the low teens.
Did manage to get on the board with this system (just) with a light shower about 5am which gave me 0.2mm's.
Don't think we will do that well in the Melbourne area from this system but eastern Victoria should fare better.
Already the east is getting some rain and they should get more later today with some storms likely as the air is quite unstable in the east today.
NW Tassie is getting some good rain ATM and some thunderstorms as well. Launceston got 44mm's up to 9am and they have had another 16mm's since.
As For Melbourne today maybe one or two showers later particulary in the eastern Suburbs and The Dandenongs.

Melbourne area;
Cloudy. Isolated showers. The chance of thunderstorms during this afternoon and evening.

Just had to remind myself that I had actually read the BOM forecast right this morning. By any stretch of the imagination it has been a fine sunny and quite warm morning here, after a misty start, so 0/10 so far I'm afraid BOM!
We are of course in the "eye" of the storm as it were, with the low centred right over us, so nothing much going to happen for a while here until it shifts.
Currently 19.5c and sunny.

Getting ugly here in Tassie. 65mm in Launceston since midnight, heavy rain on Mt Arthur (55mm) and Mt Barrow (55mm) since 9 am. Flood warnings now out for the North Esk, South Esk and Macquarie Rivers. Focus to turn to the East and North East overnight. The event has only just begun with rain on the forecast statewide until Monday. We even had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued this morning which is very unusual for Tassie. The Launceston Cataract Gorge will be pumping with floodwaters next week.

I seriously cannot see how Melbourne's going to get a storm today... much too stable weather atm, another big let-down, really sick of waiting for this boring weather to go away I really want to be under a severe thunderstorm warning!!

At least it's a nice day to go for a walk, currently about 26C outside

Brief storm over Sale - a few rumbles - one CC observed - a bit of rain and almost hail - now we have a rainbow and sunny skies again.

Boring as today.... Would've guessed we were under the middle of a big fat anticyclone (even though the opposite was the case)!

Looks like Canberra got hit with a pretty nasty storm this evening: 26mm and 93 km/h wind gusts Black cores on the radar with that too.

P.S 13.4mm of that fell in only 5 minutes!

hillybilly wrote: Next week is showing hot... Almost tropical conditions with showers and storms. Record early monsoon up north, developing TC off nw WA and low near NTQ throwing up lots of moisture.

Ummm, yeah: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Funny how it's rocketing in from the West!

700Hpa streamlines tell the story atm. Today the winds at that pressure were from the NW and dry, but cold uppers drifting over tomorrow with high RH should get things cranking over again here.

hillybilly » Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:14 pm wrote:

hillybilly wrote:Unfortunately the progs have been right the last couple of days with all the weather rotating around the low sat almost on Melbourne and all the weather to the north,south, east and west.

.

Yes credit to the models and forecasters - looked good to me but they got it right. Still seems like a few chances yet over coming days.

Had a few drizzly showers here this morning half a mm in the gauge.
Thinking mostly fine today with maybe one or two showers later this afternoon.
Still a chance of some storms in the east of the state as things are more unstable there.