Vic: Cold fronts, Gales, AFL Grand Final Sept 24-30

[stratospear]

And the battle between Southern Ocean Cold fronts, an unrelenting inland heatwave, and Hawthorn & Freo rages on....

Could be decent rainfall on Wednesday night - widespread 10-20mm, perhaps more on the ranges?

Grand final day is looking showery, 16c or so. I can't stand either the Hawks or Freo, so might not even watch it!

[fireone]

BOM are saying Thursday morning will be wet for a fair part of the State. Falls around 50mm in the north east and 20-30 for many other areas.

[Gordon]

Thanks for the much-needed new thread stratospear. This period is looking like a reminder of the occasional fallability of the models more than a few days out. Last week these dates were forecast as pretty dry and mild; now looking quite wet with some highland snow as well.

[Wilko]

GFS has upgraded the rainfall in Melbourne to 20-40 mm tonight
In the meantime a beautiful morning with another series of big surf this week
The westerly belt keeps giving

[Rhino]

Yeah eastern side of melbourne and west gippsland should do really well out of this imo, would expect 15-20mm locally here so will be very welcome.

Rhino.

[stratospear]

Cold front seems to be taking its time. Already 23c (above forecast temp of 22c), no decent cloud, and very dry.

[johnno]

Mid level cloud near Adelaide will increase and thicken ahead of the front which is still well out west that's where the rain will come front joining with the front itself further west bombing into a low in bass straight mid to late morning.

Northerly wind factor won't be a problem tonight for Melbourne, I expect winds to go southerly or some sort of seabreeze to affect the bay and Melbourne late afternoon and early evening as a trough moves over us and lingers over us most the night as the upper trough interacts with it so basically what that mean for Melbourne is variable winds most of the night with good rainfall. Stronger winds will redevelop mid to late morning as the low bombs south east of us. However Strong to gale force NW winds will prevail over the alps most of the night. I'm expecting 15-30mm here 30-50mm east of Melbourne. Catchments should do well out of this which should keep them ticking along.

[Jake Smethurst]

Cold front isn't due to reach the far southwest corner of the state until about 10-11pm tonight. It should then speed up slightly and reach Melbourne around 2-3am and exit the far east of the state by late morning. As many have mentioned, the eastern central districts and also western Gippsland should do quite well out of this system, around 20-40mm for those areas. Elsewhere, generally 10-20mm. Not likely to see much rainfall until it develops from the west later tonight and early tomorrow morning. Also, expect these rather strong northerly winds to continue this afternoon before the strong southwesterly change brings strong to gale force winds but a little delayed from the front, particularly to coastal areas and a return to winter!

Hasn't really been mentioned, but there is the chance of both surface and mid level thunderstorms with the frontal feature itself, particularly for areas on and south of the ranges. Starting in the west tonight, in the rain band mid-level storms will be possible, whilst just ahead of and with the front surface-based storms will be possible. There is also a risk that these surface-based storms may generate strong winds, heavy rainfall and even large hail if they develop under the current forecast environment. Will be one to watch although I suspect if anything develops, since they will happen overnight, most people will be asleep. There's a slightly more significant risk of thunderstorm development during the late morning over eastern districts though. Unfortunately I cannot get the chart up until tonight, so you'll just have to stick with me until then.

Interesting night and day ahead! Good luck on the falls everyone!

EDIT: Just saw John's post ... basically sums it all up!

[Lara_Hunter]

Good stuff Jake & Johno, what time should I be expecting rain in Ballarat? Tossing up whether to work tomorrow or not!!! If its mid morning then I'll work, but if it comes in before 7am, might enjoy a day off chasing some deer up in the hills

[johnno]

The southerlies are coming up the bay as I mentioned earlier, South channel island into S to SW winds now so i'm expecting Fawkner Beacon and StKilda harbour in Southerly winds by 430-5pm. These southerlies will tend south easterly early this evening and wash out into variable winds later.

Lara Hunter the rain will come in well before 7am for Ballarat

[johnno]

Latest update from the BOM 231pm for Port Phillip bay

Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
Winds Westerly 15 to 20 knots, reaching 25 knots in the far south. Winds easing tonight to 10 to 15 knots.

The westerlies won't hang around for the rest of today, I didn't see this happening earlier and surely don't see it happening now given whats happening at the bottom of the bay

[Wilko]

The radar is filling in nicely to our west should be some useful falls tonight
Rain rain rain

[Macedonian]

anyone hazard an opinion for saturday in my area? should be quite cold? wet?

[typhoon29]

steady rain has begun here, should rain most of the night, risk of imbedded storms. System seems to be fast moving.

[Didjman]

fleeting shwr here as the band rushed thru!
Peter

[Jake Smethurst]

Few storms as I mentioned currently affecting the state. Raining steadily here at monash, a bit light but will thicken overnight. Will be updating the thunderstorm charts shortly, as soon as I have finished by university work.

[Didjman]

My pugs are unsettled tonite. one was panting earlier.
Peter

[Jake Smethurst]

Lightning tracker starting to become more active about the western districts at the moment!

[Jake Smethurst]

Have just updated the charts for tomorrow, http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/AW ... ecast.html.

Here is the description:

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Issued at: 10:41PM Wednesday 25th September 2013.

Discussion for Thursday:

Isolated thunderstorm activity has already occurred during Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to cross Victoria during early Thursday. It should move into central areas between 2-4am and then exit the east of the state by the late morning. Isolated mid-level thunderstorms will remain a risk across the majority of areas from midnight until around midday Thursday, mainly embedded within the rain areas. There is also a smaller risk for surface-based thunderstorms to develop near the cold front for areas on and south of the ranges, and if these thunderstorms do develop, they could produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hailstones. No 'severe' area has been defined on the chart due to the lower risk. Please note that the 'likely' area marked is due to stronger instability being available over West Gippsland.

[James]

rumble of thunder!