VICTORIA: Trough then cold front. 3rd .. 6th Feb 2012

[crikey]

Just been watching the weather news and firstly Livinia's weather on channnel 9 , indicating showers for Melbourne as far away as next Monday/Tuesday ????
and
Jane Bunn on WIN news weather indicating showers and storms this Friday for her forecast area being around Ballarat and Bendigo districts
that means only 3 days away for potentially some more showers and maybe storms.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Had a very quick look at ACCESS which is indicating a troughy region starting this Friday and WATL wind forecast indicating the same but a nice area of low pressure arriving from SA that could make things interesting on SUNDAY the 5th Feb !!
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As for the cold front . I assume that is what Livinia is focusing on?

[Rhino]

Just had a quick look at some models and not overly excited yet, GFS stormcast not showing anything in regards to negative LI's or decent CAPE for the whole period apart from far eastern areas but may change of course. OCF, EC and GFS only going for minimal rainfall for my area, maybe 10mm, southern areas might do ok going by EC but most of the rain coming sun-mon so still 5 days away and so plenty of time for the models to decrease those amounts further . Something on the horizon though.

Rhino.

[Karl Lijnders]

To me it actually looks like a reasonable event. Convective activty should begin around Friday and then become scattered across the weekend into early next week with the movement of a cold front through our region.

The easterly winds that setup over the state will be moist and with a weak trough developing Friday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to form on the ranges.

Saturday the moisture from TC Iggy which plows into SW WA begins to move in and we can expect to see that moisture link up with the trough over C VIC so showers and thunderstorms increasing a tad across the state. Sunday it ramps up as a cold front moves through southern areas.

Not too hot ahead of this system but it will be humid again.

Anticipating around 20-30mm of rain for many southern and eastern areas. 10mm across northern and western regions.

[Gordon]

Great looking map for Vic this Sunday on the latest BOM 4 day charts, with a 996 low centred on the state.

[johnno]

4 Day BOM chart which is a translation of the EC model Gordon is the only model going for this scenario so we shall see if turns out like this but has been the minority going for this scenario This morning and past couple of days

[Rhino]

EC was going for 16mm for me this morning and caught my attention but only has 2mm for me tonight so will see how tommorow mornings run turns out and GFS does'nt want any part of it atm. OCF giving slightly less totals aswell but still a few days out so will too and fro a bit yet. A wish some of that system in NSW was heading this way, just seems it's been sitting there for ages and still not over yet.

Rhino.

[crikey]

I thought it might be interesting to see how much of cyclone IGGY makes its way into the trough
Here is a snap of the current situation with a nice snap of cyclone IGGY off the WA coast looking quite healthy at such a southern latitude.( can see the eye clearly)
I believe the temp anomalies off the west coast are still above the mean, maybe assisting maintaining the cyclonic low?
Some of the moisture appears to be entering the trough.
Wonder how much of TC IGGY the trough will capture.?
Thought l would take a few snaps along the way
( note: the arrows l have drawn indicate the direction of cloud as l have perceived from the animation ,from a top down view. Some flow is upper layer and some is mid or lower layer)
Also like the look of the cold front. It looks cold!
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00902.loop.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



and the synoptic showing the surface layer synoptic



Also Jane Bunn WIN weather news tonight, indicating possible storms for the N/west of the state tomorrow and now looking to Sunday night for a change in the weather

[Karl Lijnders]

Still looking at a fair event across southern and eastern areas with the remains of Iggy being dragged into the SE with the front and this could see widespread showers and storms come through the state around Sunday. Should be fairly windy too with low pressure.

ACCESS and EC have around 10-30mm across southern areas and GFS and the rest a little less.

Looking more favourable for storms in the north today with storm cells up along the border near Swan Hill.

[Rhino]

Yeah looks alright on the nth border and all moving sth and should continue moving that way for most of the day so will be interesting to see how far sth it all gets, west central may be in with a chance of a drop, I hope anyway. Still sticking with my 5-10mm forecast for here so should get something.

Rhino.

[johnno]

Storms in NE Vic Today and as we speak and suprisingly very quiet in here Today

[I_Love_Storms]

Some beautiful convection going up out west. Very crisp in the clear air. Cell on radar near Beaufort.

[rikjpool]

looks like this to me east 30min ago....

[adon]

Was the same up here about an hour ago Ricki but has eased off now and only the odd cloud hanging about.

[crikey]

Jane BUNN WIN weather indicating that Bendigo/Ballarat and districts only 5mm on Sunday. This system favoring the south. She mentioned the EX TC IGGY moisture is likely to be all used up on its passage before reaching VIC
Perth got 20mm from IGGY decaying

Another perspective : Stepping through ACCESS gives us in west nth central 10mm and southern areas more

Clutching at straws here for a bit more

WATL wind indicating plenty of wind with this change. WATL wind indicating a strong change Northerlies strengthening before the change to gusty westerlies

According to ACCESS
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... u&model=CG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

An embedded low within the trough develops in the southern ocean and will intensify . It has a central pressure of 987hPascls on Sunday morning where the low is centered s/west of Tassie . ( no wonder it will be windy)
However the isobars extend or protrude into VIC and ACCESS is forecasting that VIC will have a pressure of 994hPascals over ALL of VIC on Sunday
So basically this trough is deepening ( but over Tassie' on its passage over VIC
That low gets down to 967 pascals well south of tassie by Monday.
'Tassie' looks to do well from this low
ACCESS has the change passing through VIC quite quickly. The change in the west of the state on Sunday morning and by 5pm the trough well l and truly in the east of the state ACCESS indicating better rain for southern areas and Melbourne

WATL wind indicating that the front/.wind change line will pass on a generally north/ south alignment and looks well defined. Likely to have embedded storms on the wind change line?
Note: the wind change line extends fro southern NSW to the coast of VIC

As for moisture
Digging deep now..LOL

Dew points at 14 deg C on Sunday morning as the trough/wind change comes through in the west and followed directly behind some very dry air with low dew points
BOO HOO!!
Maybe a line of embedded storms with wind change and then another with cold? front

BOO HOO !! Likely Have to order water..BOO HOO!

[Meso]

Clutching at straws with this system. A few mm for the usual southern and mountain areas, maybe the odd pulsy cell about the ranges and a drop in temp and a bit of wind for the rest of us.

Gee, I hope the atmosphere is holding in one last burst of real severe weather before the cool autumn air arrives.

[Karl Lijnders]

We will get big events as we get into March and April as the colder air returns. March can be very active as we all know over the years - but it is starting to get a bit strawy and clutching is required with this system.

Looking like the front and bits of Iggy will dive SE off VIC and into TAS who will reap the benefit.

Anyhow chance of a line of storms with the change across the state but really dependent upon the thermal gradient, timing etc. Moisture looks a little less than desirable.

Next week it improves with signs of autumn coming.

[Meso]

Good to see you being realistic, Karl!

Anyway, surely we have one more severe weather event to come before summer dies out and the interaction of air masses declines? We all remember March 2010. If there is something like that hiding up mother natures sleeve then buckle up...otherwise, we may just crawl in to winter without a whimper. I know Xmas day was madness for those that were caught up in it, but apart from that, we have had the November (Robyn's mothership) event and the October storms that nailed Ballarat and Bendigo, but apart from that I'm struggling to remember anything noteworthy this summer? Plenty of stray storms out east, but nothing like most of us have become accustomed to over summer. Summer night light shows have been severely lacking, much to the disappointment of a lot of our members.

[93ben]

Messo, hopefully theres storms tomorrow. The BOM have already put up the temperature for today in Melbourne to reach 33o. ATM forecasts.bsch.com.au isn't showing much for tomorrow with thunderstorm activity. Hopefully that changes when we get closer to tomorrow. I really thirsty for a storm because we haven't had since the start of January.

[Karl Lijnders]

It is still looking fairly marginal but OK for some patchy rain across the region. Should see cloud develop tomorrow with the chance of thunderstorms greater through E areas later.

Nice and warm today, nothing like 33C and a bit of humidity. Could sneak 35C tomorrow then cooler next week with a few showers and thunderstorms returning later in the week with a developing low pressure trough and system in E VIC. Good catchment rainfall is possible and storm outbreak over C areas.

[AUS_Twisted]

Nice new look to the front page guys, nice and clean.

Currently there's some instability going up out west of here, very weak looking but it's early afternoon, dp's are going down a bit though.