The Australian Weather Forum

Long way out, but there is what looks like a potential rain event next Friday. Any thoughts?

Just had a look at the 7 day wind forecast map and atm it is suggesting a whopping north/ south front-line from mid/ NSW to Vic coastline and wind change from northerly to westerly wind stream on Friday 9th DEC 4pm to 10 pm in the west of the state.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
And as you say BERVY a fair way off but looks to be our next low pressure area?
By the looks of the 4 day BOM synoptic .the trough /low is around SA/WA border on the Wednesday the 7th DEC
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Haven't really looked to deep in to it and yeah it will all probably change, but for the time being...



Oh yeah!

Fantastic week of weather ahead. Cool nights at first with mild to warm days getting into the high 20s in Melbourne by the end of the week and then an influx of moisture with a trough. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough and will tend to rain for periods. I can't see anything major with this. There may be a few decent storms about at first, but for most places probably only 15-25mm with some higher falls as usual on the ranges.

It's great to see absolutely no significant heat though for the entire 10 day model outlook period and reasonable DPs as well. We will still get our fair share of warm and sunny weather but no extremes whatsoever.

Looking like a decent system. Tonight most models, especially CMC have Dps hovering around 20 degrees for a 48 hour period Fri/Sat. This will ensure 25-50mm over a large swathe of the state. At this stage it doesnt appear to cut off violently or be cradled, however ACCESS did prog an upper low on Friday around Mt Gambier in the 12Z run so this possibility needs to be watched, as rainfall will alter if this occurs. GFS also beginning to hint at the same..

Another rain event on a Friday night/Saturday, Awesome!...

I love it when it rains, but surely it could start raining early in the week for a change?

I dont think it likes cricket, last 2 years has seen an amazing amount of Saturdays washed out...

Latest GFS interesting, by the looks of the graph cradled set up could be on the cards, along with the formation of the upper low. The ridiculous cold of this morning will also ensure another smashing in the way of storms and heavy rain. Mid levels at 600mb have been decreasing for years and i dont understand why the models arent seeing it, actually i do its called corrupt climatologists.



Will have to keep an eye on this one, our December record monthly rainfall could be in jeopardy as i expect 2 very active weeks after this weekends system.

eddie » Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:43 am wrote:

eddie wrote:Another rain event on a Friday night/Saturday, Awesome!...

I love it when it rains, but surely it could start raining early in the week for a change?

It is always Friday night! In the 16 years i have watched weather in Victoria it has always been Friday night tha anything exciting happens.

Last summer is getting repeated by the looks of it!

LOL, Eddie I was just coming in to make comment about the cricket, but you beat me to it. SO FRUSTRATING!!!

Latest model runs indicate a huge drawn out rain event across SE Australia. I would anticipate thunderstorms and showers developing from the north on Thursday tending more widespread Friday and by the weekend, widespread rain areas and thunder with a deepening easterly dip situation. Should see a low pressure cell form on the weekend in the trough and that should enhance the rain over the C and N areas.

What this system does is setup for the next one that comes in this time next week from C Australia with TC moisture attached. If it comes into this forecast trough and low then we could be staring down the barrell at something rather ominous and unprecedented. Standby for further information as it comes in. But to me this is looking disasterous.

In the meantime moisture is building up to our north and east with the flooding rains starting in SE QLD this week, NSW mid to late week and to VIC, chiefly the eastern 2/3rds by the weekend.

Karl Lijnders wrote:
What this system does is setup for the next one that comes in this time next week from C Australia with TC moisture attached. If it comes into this forecast trough and low then we could be staring down the barrell at something rather ominous and unprecedented. Standby for further information as it comes in. But to me this is looking disasterous.

That sent shivers down my spine Karl. Thanks, I will be watching the forum more closely than ever over the next week.

This one looks like a 20-25mm event for our area. Handy rain seeing we are yet to open our account for December yet.

Glad I'm not in the same house as last year.....

Could be a nice chase on the cards after the ASWA BBQ this saturday... As long as we dont get washed out. Haha

Whats up with GFS? Seems to have lost interest in the latest run.

Latest EC says "non-event". I suspect this weekend won't deliver much (probably a good thing given that we're in the middle of harvest), but mid-Dec into Christmas could be massive...

Karl Lijnders wrote:staring down the barrell at something rather ominous and unprecedented. Standby for further information as it comes in. But to me this is looking disasterous.

Jeepers Karl, AV is really going to have to pull out all the stops to beat that description!!!
So I gather you think it might rain next week then? Certainly NCEP thinks something is in the pipeline...http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, and EC shows a low of tropical origin approaching late next week...http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... hive_date/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, so you may be onto something. Let's see what this weekend produces first, I really don't need another wet one!

EC really stuffing up with tonights run IMO, how you can have rain periods in the official BOM forecast for friday and EC forecasting 0mm for me just does'nt cut it. 3mm for Sat forecast aswell so can't take it seriously at this stage, unless BOM aren't doing their job. Anyway, still big falls on the cards (50-75mm) and expect GFS to come back with the solid falls again tonight if not tommorow and still expect 20-40mm here locally but might get 50-75mm if it sets up well.

Rhino.

Lol I know this seems a tad off-topic... but this chill makes me feel like winter hasn't completely lost its grip, despite the warmth that arrived as early as the beginning of August! hahahaha maybe we might get a repeat of 2006... a mighty cold front just before December 25th which shoves out even the most scorching heatwave and most brutual bushfire risk and gives way to a White Christmas across Victoria?!

Anyway, back on-topic, more soaking rain sounds great, especially in summer. I can understand that it'll increase the risk of flooding, but Melbourne's catchments still need more good inflow, so any heavy rains that fall throughout the summer months will be appreciated in my area for the most part

Models flirting with this system a bit now, as per usual it will come back a couple days out. Most likely outcome will be a strong trough with a low pressure system form on it as it passes through VIC. Widespread rain with locally heavy falls and isolated thunderstorms from late Friday spreading statewide by weekend and clearing early next week ahead of a stronger low pressure system.

Still anticipating around 30-50mm across Melbourne with this system and heavier falls along the divide.

Not looking the best for thunderstorms away from the NE of the state.