QUEENSLAND...Day to day weather talk

[crikey]

August 30th 9pm
The national loop
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
is showing once again some significant falls of rain in Queensland tonight.
Some current totals as of 12 hrs , with still 12 hrs to go before the end of the reporting period
some of the bigger totals at

Darling downs/Granite belt district
Toowoomba.20m

WideBay/Burnett District
happy happy joy joy..23.4mm
Gympie..35.4mm
Toolara..20.6mm

SouthEast coast
Amberley..23mm
Brisbane airport. Hit again!..33.4mm
Coolangatta..Hit again!...44mm



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
A WARNING was issued tonight..
for current warnings and update
link to
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/index.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields,
Capricornia and
Wide Bay and Burnett Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:47 pm Tuesday, 30 August 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bundaberg, Gladstone, Biloela, Monto, Baralaba and Town Of 1770.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Those troughs moving toward the coastline on a north /south alignment have really been delivering.
There was a severe thunderstorm warning last night and some more storms on parts of the coast tonight. An incredible amount of electrical activity in the S/East coastal area as seen on storm tracker last night and tonight.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/stormtracker.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weatherzone's report
Severe storms dump serious rain on Brisbane
Alex Zadnik, Tuesday August 30, 2011 - 19:21 EST

Severe thunderstorms dumped torrential rain over southeast Queensland during Tuesday,
with half a month's worth of rain hitting Brisbane airport in the space of 10 minutes.

It was the fourth day in a row of thunderstorm activity over Queensland on Tuesday, with a
cold pocket of air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere acting as a trigger. Plenty of
sunshine through the morning also provided the solar heating required for violent storm
activity during the afternoon.

The storms covered a wide area from the Central Highlands of Queensland down to the
Southeast Coast district, with storms also present across a large swathe of northeastern
NSW.

Areas around Brisbane did see some of the most intense rainfall rates into the evening.
Brisbane airport picked up an incredibly heavy 20mm of rain in 10 minutes, which is more
than enough to cause flash flooding. It is also around half the monthly rainfall average!
Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued due to the risk of flash flooding, along with
large hail and damaging winds.

Wednesday will be much calmer in Queensland, with the cold air moving offshore, greatly
reducing thunderstorm potential.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011
Wild storm cuts power across south-east Queensland
Tuesday August 30, 2011 - 18:22 EST

A severe thunderstorm has hit south-east Queensland, leaving about 1,600 houses across the region without power.

Energex says crews are working to restore power to customers in Brisbane's northern suburbs, as well as the Lockyer Valley and Ipswich.

The company says about 11,000 lightning strikes have occurred across the region.

The Bureau of Meteorology for damaging wind and large hailstones.

One affected area includes Emerald and parts of the central Queensland coast.

The warning also covers the state's south-east, including coastal areas from Bundaberg to the Gold Coast and inland areas around Kingaroy, Toowoomba and the Granite Belt.

Forecaster Vikash Prasad said the storm activity would continue into the night.

"We do have a trough that's extending through the central parts of the state and that has caused storm activity to develop mainly around the central highlands and to the north of Brisbane," he said.

"And in the last hour or so we've seen some of these storm cells move towards Brisbane. They were conducive to producing some large hail stones and possibly some gusty winds as well.

"Chances are we'll probably see storm activity continuing for the next few hours into early evening."

ABC/AAP


- ABC

© ABC 2011

[crikey]

It is always good to check the record weather claims made by the weather media.
Just thought l'd check some statements made by weatherzone report on the Queensland rainfall for August 2011.
The report says
"The St Lawrence River region takes the prize for having the highest percentage of the
monthly average. August is usually St Lawrence's driest month, with an average of
22.9mm, but reported 145.3mm this August. This is 650% of the average and the wettest
August in 141 years of weather records!"
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wett ... -qld/18707" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However checked the records at BOM for St Lawrence post office ( St Lawrence has 2 stations)
and in fact it was not the wettest August in 144 years.
Years that were over 145.3mm in August include
1893.. had 206.7mm.. 127 years ago
1988..had 144mm..( just one mm short of 2011 ;put that in for perspective)
1998..had 218.6mm ..12 years ago.!!.
2011..had 145.3mm

records began in St Lawrence post office in 1870 and so in 141 years of records there was only 4 years with August rainfall above 144mm. A not so frequent event
Ratio 4 events in :141 years = one in thirty five year event

The BOM percentile chart for st Lawrence recors this level of rainfall in August as above the 95th percentile!
And to further put things in perspective . There have been 21 years out of 141 years of records where St Lawrence has had zero 0mm of rain in August
Ratio 20 events : 141 years of records = 7.05
One in every 7 years you may expect to have zero rainfall in August at St Lawrence post office.
However even those stats are misleading as if you look at the sequence those years of zero mmm can come in three consecutive years, like 1875, 1876, 1877 and 4 years in a row from 1883 to 1887.
From 1926 to 1931 , 5 years of rainfall in August below 4mm.
Anyway this month of august 2011 will be remembered by many mainly coastal districts/towns in Queensland as an August with well above average rainfall.
The average for St Lawrence for August is 23.9
anf the median is 11.2mm. So August 2011 has been a 95th ++ percentile event for St Lawrence.

Noticed Coolangatta broke an all time record ( 28 years of records)
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=040717" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The highest rainfall recorded since records began in 1983
Coolangatta had 203.6mm in August 2011
The last time any years got close to this was
1987
and 2007 ..188.4mm


Got to watch for sensational media

However an event like this doesn't happen that often at all

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=033065" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Ken]

Below are a couple of screenshots I saved from the 3D radar imagery during the early stage of the impressive severe thunderstorm outbreak we had in SE QLD/NE NSW last Tuesday. I cut a slice out to the WNW from the Mt Stapylton doppler through a nearby cell that was starting to develop - it later developed a good forward lean. The main triggers were a mid/upper trough and associated cold air, inland sfc trough, warm moist northerly flow and a weak coastal front/change.

Hail accumulations occurred in some areas with the ground turning white and "hail fog". There were also right-movers and left-movers galore yesterday as can be seen on animated radar loops:

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 1-08-30-13" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (64km)
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 1-08-30-13" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (128km)

Full size version of the screenshot here: http://ken.bsch.au.com/gallery2/d/3075- ... shot-1.png

Cross-section/side-on view of a couple of the cells:

[crikey]

Fires Burn Across Southeast Queensland, Australia

By Paul Vaughan - Mon Sep 26, 9:24 pm

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite detected several fires burning in southeast Queensland on Monday (September 26, 2011).

The fires, featured in the above image, are outlined in red.

The fire season in Queensland, Australia runs through the dry winter and spring. The Queensland government declared a fire danger period from September 4, 2011, to January 2, 2012, when fires are allowed by permit only. The fires shown in this image likely include both deliberately set fires and natural wildfires.

Many of Australia’s ecosystems require fire to stimulate growth and regenerate some plant species. As a result, the landscape is extremely prone to fire and burns easily.

NASA image courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Caption by Holli Riebeek.

Instrument: Aqua – MODIS
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/ ... 39690.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[crikey]

Crews battle as fires threaten properties and smoke closes roads in Queensland
* by: By Samantha Healy and Rikki-Lee Arnold
* From: The Sunday Mail (Qld)
* October 01, 2011 7:18PM
HOT temperatures, gusty winds and low humidity levels are fanning a number of blazes across the state with a fire weather warning in place for some regions.
Firefighters are battling a number of grassfires along a stretch of the Bruce Highway between Ayr and Bowen.
Read more:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/gr ... z1LrhWRLtd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[crikey]

Evacuation warning as Queensland fires worsen

ABC October 2, 2011, 4:34 pm
Residents south of Gladstone in Central Queensland have been told to enact their bushfire plans as the fire threat escalates in the region.

More than 70 fires are burning across the state and some residents at Burua, south of Gladstone, have been encouraged to consider relocating to a safer area.

Authorities say a large bushfire in the area is moving quickly and they are warning of spot fires and embers being blown from the blaze.

Queensland Fire and Rescue assistant commissioner Neil Gallant says 11 fire crews and a water bomber have been unable to bring the fire under control.

He says he cannot guarantee that crews will be able to defend all properties.

"If their property is well prepared and can be defended that's fine but if that's not the case and they're not feeling safe then certainly happy for them to leave while it's safe to do so," he said.

Extra fire crews from Brisbane and Mackay have been sent to the region to help.

There is also a large fire causing problems at Buxton near Hervey Bay.

Police say motorists should take care due to a number of smoke hazards, particularly around Gladstone.

Yesterday 23 fire crews defended properties as more than 60 fires burned around Barmoya, Cawarral and Loven Lee, north-east of Rockhampton.

It was feared the outbreaks could regain intensity but the bureau is not expecting yesterday's wild winds to flare up this afternoon.

Senior forecaster Brian Rolestone says conditions around Rockhampton have eased and there is no need for a fire warning.
"It's improved a lot. It's not as dry and ... the wind speeds have decreased since yesterday so we won't be in extreme fire danger," he said.

More news coming here.. Latest here
Chemical plant at risk as fire battle continues
http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/lat ... continues/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Ken]

Thankfully we haven't had an excessively severe fire danger here in SE QLD. Spring and very early summer is traditionally our fire season here whereas it's towards the end of the Dry further north. However our susceptibility to widespread vigorous bushfires here is a bit lower than that of say Vic because of generally more moisture, green-ness of vegetation and synoptics.

There was a good outbreak of cold-air thunderstorms here yesterday after some steady rain from the front that swept through here the day before. Some of the cells near and off far NE NSW/SE QLD were pretty intense and may well have been supercells. The diagnostics were very favourable for large hail and supercells. Temps were hovering around 8C to 9C for most of the day today in Applethorpe in SE QLD and around 13-14C in Toowoomba.

Expecting yet another pulse of cold midlevel air here tonight/Mon (-5C at 10,000ft and -27C at 18,5000ft) before it moves out to sea so expecting to see a good scattering of showers, some thunderstorms and maybe even some small hail in a few places mainly during the daytime on Mon. Here's a couple of satpics from Sat showing the cold air storms:

Animations:
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... 1110010733

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... 1110010733

NASA MODIS imagery:


MTSAT visible imagery sourced via the US Navy and available on BSCH:

[Ken]

I might also add that the setup from overnight into tomorrow (Sat) is still looking explosively dangerous for many areas of QLD/northern NSW and favourable for the chance of lots of large hail (huge amount of forecast hail CAPE), strong winds (mid to low level jet) and mabe even a small tornado (very strong shear/helicity in the lower levels).

EDIT: a report of a funnel cloud 20km south of Surat in southern inland QLD from a stormchaser has now come in.

[crikey]

Brisbane times
Govt orders drop in Wivenhoe levels
Marissa Calligeros
November 13, 2011

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensl ... z1Lr8GABUM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Water being released from Wivenhoe Dam last summer.


Govt orders drop in Wivenhoe levels
Marissa Calligeros
November 13, 2011

Water will be released from Wivenhoe Dam to 75 per cent capacity.

Wivenhoe Dam levels will be dropped to 75 per cent following a prediction by the weather bureau for extreme rainfall this summer.

The Queensland Government gave dam operators the go ahead to release 400 cubic metres of water from Wivenhow Dam over 12 days, after the Bureau of Meteorology presented its latest seasonal outlook saying with "moderate to high level confidence" that "the rainfall over the November to January period will be above the long term median in southern Queensland and New South Wales".

The dam, which is currently 80 per cent full, will then be held at 75 per cent until the end of the wet season in March.
Advertisement: Story continues below

Any extra in-flows over the summer will also be released to maintain the lower level.

In the event of a flood similar to that of January this year, the flood peak would be 0.3 metres lower with the dam level at 75 per cent.

The operation of Wivenhoe was a key focus of the inquiry into January's devastating floods, with many victims believing that if water had been released sooner, the scale of the damage would not have been so bad.

The inquiry recommended Wivenhoe dam be drawn down to 75 per cent if the Bureau of Meteorology made a prediction similar to, or worse than, last year's briefing.

However Acting Premier Andrew Fraser, who made the announcement this afternoon, said there was no guarantee the city would not flood.

‘‘While the government has been told there will be a period of above average rainfall, for the last few months it has been below the level we had last year so the situation is not as dire as last year," he said.

‘‘If we get an event such as last year, Brisbane will still flood.’’

Having decided against lowering levels in September, he said he hoped Sunday’s decision would be a comfort to victims of the floods earlier this year.

‘‘For many people who have experienced a very difficult year, thinking about a repeat is a horrific concept, this decision means we are better placed to deal with those factors in the future.’’

The release of water will close Twin Bridges and Savages Crossing for about 10 to 12 days, but Colleges Crossing will remain open.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensl ... z1Lr84n1WX" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Ken]

Incidentally, there was a tornado reported at Rathdowney southwest of Brisbane last night (Sun) which destroyed a house and damaged others.

[crikey]

Thanks for that info ken. Chased up some links for the Rathdowney Tornado
Excellent ch 7news You tube report here. Incredible . Steel mangled like plasticine
The shed / house they purchased was designed to survive cat 5 cyclones ?? Reject.. refund..
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Stormchaser Geoffrey Higgins noticed 3 tornadoes lowering


Sth Brisbane storm chasers video of the same event
http://www.findbrisbane.com/storm-chase ... th-2011-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
South Brisbane Storm chasers Andy Barber and Cam Hines intercepted a dangerous severe warned thunderstorm from Woodenbong, NSW to Rathdowney, QLD. We witnessed beautiful lightning strikes and winds gusting to near 140kph in Rathdowney that evening. Possible tornado occurred rainwrapped in the storm and took out a house and industrial shed. All family members were fine thankfully. We were accompanied by Sue Martinovich on her first storm chase also.

[crikey]

Is there an error on the MILES weather station in the Darling downs granite belt forecast district ?. It is reporting 100mm of rain falling in one and a half hours?

Total since 9am 110.4mm !!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 5529.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Ken]

We've actually removed that from the web for now pending further investigation because it looked suspect.

EDIT: there was an impressive 52mm of rain in just 20mins at Laidley west of Brisbane at 3:20pm AEDST from severe thunderstorms.
45mm of rainfall was recorded in 30 minutes at Manly at 4:55pm.
45mm of rainfall was recorded in 30 minutes at Burpengary at 4:45pm.
42mm of rainfall was recorded in 15 minutes at Holland Park at 4:20pm.

[crikey]

Hi all
Currently posting from burnett heads coastal near bundaberg
the dew points have dropped right off here on the past 48hrs
dew point down as low as 4 deg c at 2pm today
drier south westerlies have been prevailing atm
gorgeous weather here currently
the past few nights have been 'nippy' with temps down at 11 deg c
the perigree moon looks fab tonight
clear skies viewing

[crikey]

hi all
posting from yeppoon about 40km east of rockhampton on the coast
we had a very cold night last night with minimum temp at 9.6 deg c.
even though this is 6 deg c below the mean of 15.6 deg c ,it was not the coldest by a longshot which was 4.9 deg c in may ,the year 2000
yeppoon has a very small data set and has only published obs ince 1967. even though it says the station was opened in 1891
there are many holes in the record
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=033294" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We noticed that the land is much drier here, especially on the road from gladstone to rockhampton
forecast for tomorrow 26 deg c fine and sunny

[Thunder]

We noticed that the land is much drier here, especially on the road from gladstone to rockhampton
forecast for tomorrow 26 deg c fine and sunny

You could probably chalk that one in for the rest of your time but there may be a rain event on the way, won't be much though. How far north are you headed crikey? Yeppoon to Airlie is nice, usually pretty green and the road is good. From Airlie it goes down hill(not literally) to Bowen, then you enter an area affectionately known by me as "The Death Zone" Bowen to Air is a dismal stretch of highway imo.
Hope you enjoy the rest of your time in our great state crikey!