The Australian Weather Forum

Well, a very boring day today. Not that we need excessive rain, and we have had plenty the last few days anyway, but I was looking forward to a big day today. Oh well, you can't win them all. Looks like big falls today just to the west of here, we literally were right on the edge here. It has ended up very patchy with just the one heavy rain band that sat in the one spot all day and scattered storms to the east and SE of Melbourne that looked impressive. In between though there was just light rain with a few heavier showers in amongst it but only fairly brief.

I would like to think a big band will still develop from the north and tilt NE as it moves into the east of the state but there is no real indication of this happening so I can't be confident, only hopeful.

Fantastic day. Areas getting hit where they should be getting hit. 4 day accumulations are adding up and more to come.

Getting heavy rain here now, has not stopped since 1pm. 14mm and rising!!

Edit: The convection on this windshift means the east is going to get belted!! Could see a quick fire 20mm in some spots.

I would of thought we only needed a southerly David. It's just the south westerly setups that miss us. Synoptics look SSE to me for tonight and tomorrow.

I'll have to wait for model updates when they come out to get a better idea.

And just like that it gets very dark and it starts all over again.some heavy rain rapidly developing and hitting my area right now. I don't know what to expect anymore lol.this thing has a mind of its own.living it.

SE wind change just blown through here with a heavy downpour and temp dropping.

Edit: Ummm that would be SW wind change

As stratospear mentioned, a Major Flood Warning is now out for the Loddon River, d/s of Cairn Curran Reservoir.

Video of Cairn Curran today:
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Laanecoorie:
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Loddon River:


Rain getting heavier in Bendigo atm.

Latest from BOM:

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times. The chance of thunderstorms. Winds west to southwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h becoming southwesterly later in the evening.

City Centre
Heavy rain.

Forecast for Sunday

Cloudy. Rain, easing to a few showers during the morning. Winds southerly averaging up to 35 km/h.

City Centre
Heavy rain easing. Min15 Max18

Another 23 mm for us since 9 am, event total 62 mm. Of some interest, we've missed all the thunderstorms so this has been 'regular' rain. Much colder outside now at 12.5 C, so the tropical feeling has gone for now.

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the North Central, Northern Country, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and North East forecast districts
Issued at 4:16 pm EDT on Saturday 27 November 2010.

Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure over central Victoria will deepen and move to the east of the State tonight, then linger over eastern Victoria on Sunday.
Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the North Central, Northern Country, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and North East forecast districts.

stratospear wrote:Video of Cairn Curran today:
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Laanecoorie:
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Loddon River:


Rain getting heavier in Bendigo atm.

Funny that I just heard some well learned person say that there was no evidence that this rain was helping the deficit. Ummmmmmm...

Anyway enough of my editorial... 4mm in 10mins here, best went southwest of me towards David and One in Dandenong.

17mm here for the day, sitting under wonderful rainfall still.

Watch to the NW.

17mm since this time yesterday and 61mm since Wednesday night.

Rainfall rate has really ramped up in last 10 minutes and now it's belting down. Since 9am: 17mm.

rain, we have rain, and I heard a rumble - fingers crossed - we may finally get something out of these systems

Rain has decided to have a break here. 25mm recorded since yesterday and the yard is a ocean of water! Though great oppotunity to pull out the weeds

Hubby decided to comment that I looked like a Chinese woman pulling out the crops! LOL I only replied I need my hat to make it work!

Scored 2 thunderstorms! Alwsome!

Well that was a short lived change! Came in fast and strong with a real chill to it then seemed to be eaten up by the NW flow after it passed by here. Calm now and the rain has stopped for the first time since around 1 pm.

Waiting with anticipation to see what happens next.

Real rain even - gutters starting to flow. Of course timed perfectly - have to go out in a minute! I've heard lots of rumbles and even seen on lovley CG.

My updated thunderstorm chart as promised.

Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1 (Saturday) Issued 5:15 PM EDT 27/11/2010

A trough of low pressure is currently deepening over Victoria as it gradually moves eastwards. Thunderstorm activity has already been observed across the state today, including through the West and South Gippsland region where severe thunderstorms developed. For the remainder of today, isolated thunderstorms remain likely across eastern Victoria in a very unstable, moist airmass ahead of the trough. There is just the chance for isolated thunderstorms embedded within rain areas over the central districts. All thunderstorm activity today is expected to produce flash flooding, however the east of the state is where damaging winds is possible.

It hasnt stopped "raining" here since 8am, only 3mm though in that whole time

Karl Lijnders wrote: Funny that I just heard some well learned person say that there was no evidence that this rain was helping the deficit. Ummmmmmm...

Yes I've heard similar Karl, but it's nonsense. The water table is saturated, fuel is saturated, most natural and manmade lakes are full, rivers are in flood or nearly. You can't continue to fit water into saturated land or full storages. Except for parts of Gippsland, the deficit is effectively gone - it exists only in mathematical theory.