Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the South West, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and North East forecast districts
Issued at 3:47 pm EDT on Thursday 13 January 2011.
Weather Situation
A low pressure system developing over eastern South Australia will move south along the western Victorian border tonight then move west of Tasmania on Friday. An associated low pressure trough will move through western Victoria Friday morning, central districts by early afternoon and eastern districts later in the day.
Damaging winds averaging 70-80 km/h with gusts around 100-120 km/h are forecast to develop over elevated areas of the Wimmera and South West this evening, North Central, Central and Northern Country overnight and the North East and Gippsland early Friday. Isolated gusts 120-140km/h are possible about exposed peaks.
Wind gusts to 90 km/h are possible elsewhere in these districts, mainly associated with heavy rain or thunderstorm activity.
Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the South West, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central and North East forecast districts and parts of the West and South Gippsland forecast district.
The heavy rain will clear western districts Friday morning and central districts during the afternoon following the passage of the trough.
The highest rainfall totals in the 24 hours to 9am Thursday was 109mm at Kyneton and 74 mm at Whitland. Many locations in the northeast of the state received totals in the range of 50-70mm.
Between 9am and 3.30pm Thursday, a further 60mm of rain has fallen at Mt William, 35mm at The Basin, 32mm at Montrose and 30mm at Mt Macedon.
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Thursday.
I'm feeling like I did in Indonesia when i went there on a school trip years ago, i.e. greasy skin and hair, and feeling completely energy sapped. The only difference is it was 33C up there when I went and the middle of an El Nino drought. The rain means that everything is growing mould.
In fact, to be honest, the place I've been too where the weather has been most like what it is now is Sydney.
Latest GFS has the main rain band passing through late morning and clearing out in the afternoon. It looks like another 25mm here overnight and then 50-75mm with the rain band. That's when the flash flooding will cause major concerns. Luckily for us, the weather clears up very quickly behind it and then we are fine for an extended period.
Timster wrote:Dang weather station is not communicating with the rain gauge.... Will kick it when I get home and take a reading from the ever reliable Nylex.
Looking at the radar loop and Ballarat's reading, I suspect we've had at least 25mm this morning.
Up to 121mm for the "event"... unreal.
Baro back down to 1001and falling fast.
Woow. When it was back at Deni i thought it would lose its line and head more westerly. Instead it has held its line well so far. Don't wanna jinx it. I gotta catch back up to you Melbournites anyway so hopefully we can get as much as possible for this band.
Relentless waves of rain. Creeks around here are rapidly rising, I've spent much of this afternoon sweeping water out of my carport, and this is only the entree for tonight/tomorrow...
Very big band moving through from the North for North Central and central districts, could easily see 30mm or so once again out of this current band, with more bands to develop overnight and tomorrow morning.
Sitting on 49.1mm for the event, after 27mm today so far, could double it by the morning.