The Australian Weather Forum

Thankfully not much rain here in Horsham today recorded 8mm this morning, wind is in the south now and rain has stopped, we missed yesterdays storms but still trying to dry up after 28mm on Wednesday. We need sun and rain for farmers crops to dry before they are downgraded. The way it is looking though they won't dry up before the next storm outbreak mid week. Who'd be a farmer, at least the rain is great for our gardens and lawns.

I saw the rain coming down through the doors at work. Heard abit of thunder aswell.

Meso that image you posted is very nice, great job! If you have a good view and lighting + CG's like that it's sure worthwhile to use continuous shooting mode even if you only get one!

Those cells have got huge around Pakenham area and further, interesting doppler east of Pakenham to. Also check out that west front coming through on doppler over the Gellong area now.

Don't know what to make of it atm. We haven't had much at all so far today. I haven't checked the gauge but it would only be 4 or 5mm I reckon. It's really brightening up now with light rain easing off. Still thick low cloud though that's unlikely to clear. Temperature is just 16C so not much potential for thunderstorm development unless we can fluke a bit more heating in the next couple of hours.

Seriously unsure as to what is expected next. Are we still waiting for widespread rain to develop over the state or is this it? Will the rain break up and we go back to showers?

Personally I reckon there is only another 5-10mm in it for here with the focus over the east of the state. Perhaps GFS was right after all?

Starting to doubt that we may get those areas of heavy rain developing. Only 20 mins of light rain since 6am here for a total of 1.8mm's.

28mm in Point cook since 7am this morning. Western subs winning out again.

I'm a bit more optimistic about the whole scenario. The radar was and still is amazing for most areas in terms of heavy rainfall. The trough has retrograded west again as well. We still have another 18 hours of potential rain periods and embedded heavier falls IMO.

I think its coming, should develop in the clear slot to the north, clear on radar that is.

I expect the band to tilt as well from the NE tonight which should enhance rainfall, in response to the upper low. Surface low also developing too.

However these things are great in theory but dont always follow the script, which proves a point about how infantile our knowledge of anything to do with climate is. I geuss wait and see, i think the accumulations will be due to the slow moving nature rather than torrential rain.

To summarize, rain still to come but question is whether its tilts in from the NE with upslide to give us a bucketing..

Trough has sat west - the wind change may stall and wash out over the next few hours.

10mm here with rain still falling here and no stopping in sight. No temp change.

Hmm, we seem to be in the radar hole where nothing is happening, not that I mind at the moment, gotta walk the dog!

I think the radar hole is due to the surface low as illustrated in the weather map below. Best scenario for us is if this low moves a bit east and stalls rather than south, IMO anyway. It seems to be moving quite fast at the moment we want it to stall soon.



Edit: The trough actually seems to be on the move west and the low will follow it. This could be good news...we will know more soon. Keep an eye on the radar and the movement of the 'radar hole'.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
West and South Gippsland .

Issued at 2:17 pm Saturday, 27 November 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Morwell, Traralgon, Warragul, Moe, Tidal River and Yarram.

At 2:15pm a severe thunderstorm was been observed on the radar near Warragul.

Lang Lang did well out of that storm that past through here earlier recording 24mm. Drizzle here and still very optimistic about the chances later in the day.

22 C / 80% / 15mm (12mm since 1pm)

Weather radars are doing weird things. Doppler picking up strange wind returns and normal radar seems to be picking up convergence in multiple areas.

don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think tomorrow will have rain in the morning.i think its another forecast where they say it will rain but then it just ends up being fine.same thing happened last event lol. But I'm still optimistic for the scenario overall. Should get another 50mm at least over the next week.7.2mm so far today and 43mm since thursday when this event started

Just been for a drive to Cairn Curran and Laanecoorie. All floodgates are open quite a bit at Cairn Curran and Loddon River is pumping downstream. Some roads in area are getting impassable. Pics to follow shortly.

Rain gauge says we have had 44mm today

Had 56mm here since Thursday night, and looks to have set in for the afternoon/evening. Got a BBQ but who cares, love the rain and it's not cold.

Rain getting heavier here as the heating from the minimal sunlight starts to create a thick middle level deck. Things moving very slowly.

Still tipping 20-50mm through the Melbourne area.

Karl Lijnders wrote:Rain getting heavier here as the heating from the minimal sunlight starts to create a thick middle level deck. Things moving very slowly.

Still tipping 20-50mm through the Melbourne area.

There is massive convergence at the moment between multiple rain bands, wind etc. which seems to be helping a lot as well.

Still looking pretty good next 24 hours!

Edit: Bucketing down here now!