Victoria: Low pressure system. March 4th-10th 2010

[Anthony Violi]

Happened heaps of times other than that. We've had many intense storms here over the years around dawn due to 'nocturnal cooling' in a humid environment with cold and unstable upper levels. You don't even need it to be warm because the lapse rates take care of that with the cold uppers.[/quote]
Granted. Let me narrow it down.

I have never seen nocturnal cooling as a trigger for storms happen when someone has mentioned it as a possibility so we'd better just drop the topic.=P[/quote]


Lmao at that, very funny...

[Karl Lijnders]

Get ready for round two. I'm tipping another 50mm overnight out here. 53mm back at home.

[droughtbreaker]

Get ready for round two. I'm tipping another 50mm overnight out here. 53mm back at home.

And then there is tomorrow. That will be another 50mm. Just an incredible system this one. Get ready for complete insanity over the next 36hrs. It will be like Chinese water torture.

[Petros]

All calm again here, rain stopped. Lily it was you that was camping and noticed "black rain" over your house. Thoughts are with you I know what its like, good luck with the insurance.

[Lily]

Thanks Petros, yep that was me camped at Inverloch and watching the radar go black. Then I saw two missed calls from my neighbour and I said to my husband straight away, "Oh, no, something bad's happened." Thanks for your thoughts ILS & Shell too - yeah, it's mayhem. We've just gone upstairs to try and tape some tarps to the windows to try and stop any more rain but it's a useless exercise and we couldn't get that close due to the amount of glass. The kids rooms are just covered in shards of glass, all over their beds, water everywhere, , we've got damage on timber furniture inside, more pock marks from the hail (there's no glass around so I assume it was from the hail). The drive into our street was eerie, there's just "stuff" everywhere, everywhere you look. The oak trees have been stripped of their leaves, branches broken - it's unbelievable.

SES say they have about 800 people ahead of us waiting for help. Weve got broken roof tiles, the flashing's come away, the satellite dish is smashed as is the antenna.

My car is a mess - it was so strong I have creases in my boot lip approximately 10cm long, paint's been stripped off the car, the back windows smashed in and the entire car is covered in hail damage. It looks like someone's taken a hammer to it as does the garage door. Garage is flooded too, lost some furniture in there we had stored...

Gah, nice holiday.

[schitzengiggles]

Get ready for round two. I'm tipping another 50mm overnight out here. 53mm back at home.

where is "here" karl?

[Petros]

Lily - I suspect you have got the worst individual damage for a private house in Melbourne for this system, get in touch with the media so the story will ensure the insurance company dosent rip you off.

Still in a rain lull here, now the rain on the radar in these parts is comming in from the NE not the NW?? Low winding up in W of Vic?

[DarkEye]

Ouch Lily, that has to really suck, especially glass in your kids bedrooms and the worst is that your end is to get more, good luck to you.

As for me, some patchy stuff on the radar ATM.

[Hamlan]

Poor Lily...really sad to hear it. I hope the insurance and everything covers it....my relatives live in lysterfield as well...just got my Mother-In-Law to call that area.

We are watching a phenomenal light show develop to our N, we are near benalla. While we can see stuff south its only a few average crawlers, so hence looking for the line north.

Staying in Bendigo tonight...when we get bored of the lightning.

[Anthony Violi]

Radar is going ballistic to the North, expect GFS to be spot on this time tomorrow...we will be pounded in the next couple of hours...coming down from the NE right through Central...not much sleep im tipping for most of us.

[Anthony Violi]

And here we go...

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 9:00 pm EDT on Saturday 6 March 2010.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system deepening and moving into western Victoria is interacting with a tropical airmass over the State.

Heavy rain areas with embedded thunderstorms leading to localised flash flooding is forecast across all Victorian weather districts overnight and on Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms have produced extensive flash flooding through central and eastern districts of Victoria including Melbourne this afternoon and evening. Severe wind and hail was also experienced around parts of Melbourne but the activity has weakened this evening.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Sunday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300-659-217*.

[droughtbreaker]

Yep, surface low must be developing out west now, rain and storms coming back in from the NE to central. Stacks more rain overnight and it will all explode again tomorrow in the form of slow moving, very heavy rain bands with embedded storms. Don't want to go over the top but we are looking at 100mm+ falls (including today) in some areas.

[Karl Lijnders]

Get ready for round two. I'm tipping another 50mm overnight out here. 53mm back at home.

where is "here" karl?

Knoxfield.

Lily, we missed the bad hail by 0.5km. Aunty has smashed west windows down the road. Brother lost sky light. Everyone in the area has lost skylights it's seems and verandahs.

It is on. Looking forward to the light show!!

[Petros]

Calm cool and heavily overcast with low scud banks just hangin' there in the town lights, no rain. Distant thunder and the odd far-away sheet lightning re-started out to our NW after a 30 min lull. Nights not over yet by a long shot for us.

I see Sale has tallied another 15mm after 12mm yest/last night, so the system has delivered even with the cold pool still out Adelaide way!!!!

[Petros]

I think we are in for it after missing out all day, thunder getting more frequent and closer out to our NW, still in a rain lull when theres rain all about this area.

[Anthony Violi]

Yep we certainly are...some areas will end up with easily 150-200mm from this event as i forecasted many days ago. It was so obvious to me that this system had the hallmarks of being the best in decades, simply because of the dynamics at work. Not sure when we had such polar air at this latitude in March was, but to have interact with monsoonal moisture = mayhem x 100..

[schitzengiggles]

Yep we certainly are...some areas will end up with easily 150-200mm from this event as i forecasted many days ago. It was so obvious to me that this system had the hallmarks of being the best in decades, simply because of the dynamics at work. Not sure when we had such polar air at this latitude in March was, but to have interact with monsoonal moisture = mayhem x 100..

where should i be and at approx what time if i want to take photos oracle sir?

[dagget]

Raining again here, pretty stady but nothing on what we had before...at best some yellow rain for us...

[Anthony Violi]

Yep we certainly are...some areas will end up with easily 150-200mm from this event as i forecasted many days ago. It was so obvious to me that this system had the hallmarks of being the best in decades, simply because of the dynamics at work. Not sure when we had such polar air at this latitude in March was, but to have interact with monsoonal moisture = mayhem x 100..

where should i be and at approx what time if i want to take photos oracle sir?

3 oclock this arvo...anywhere with Western vantage point.

[I_Love_Storms]

The radar loop is amazing, it is wrapping around from the NE intensely now, unbelievable, this is becoming the perfect system. Going to be an extremely wild night, the city is going to cop a heap more as well, lots of water over roads etc. tomorrow I expect. A road weather warning may have to be issued.

I can't remember seeing a set up anything remotely like this since Feb 2005, which itself was a different type of system anyway. But this may end up being a storm/deep low event that we will refer to heavily in the years to come as a benchmark.