The Australian Weather Forum

Been amazed here how much rain we have had here from very heavy drizzle. Apart from a period tue arvo it's really been constant light to heavy drizzle and we have had 42mm now so just goes to show just what 36 hours or constant drizzle can do I guess, very unusual for up this way.

Rhino.

dry » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:03 am wrote:

dry wrote:Not sure about the heavy rain but the drizzle is back for the third day. Dogs need a walk and ready to tear the place apart!

Yep same here, drizzle most of the day which seems to have finally stopped.

Have a Jack Russell myself who was looking pretty miserable in her kennel last night. She's 7 year old so not quite as crazy as she used to be.

Geoff » Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:47 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:Well, after yesterday warning friends and family that we were in for flooding rains today (quoting the BOM forecast), they will now think I'm a complete berk who knows nothing (probably right).
Yesterday's 4.20pm forecast could well be the most inaccurate in recent years, 1.6mm as of 2.45pm, and nothing much more to come today going by the radar.

The 'black hole' off the East Gippsland/ southern NSW coast seems set to quickly suck yet another low pressure system into its vortex! The low in west/ central Bass Strait from 24 hours ago is gone from the BOM forecast charts, and with it (apparently) our chance here for really big rain. A few days ago I would have rated our 22 mm here as a great fall, now it seems like one of the lowest outside the south-west .

been drizzly and near 100% humidity the past 3 days amounting to only 15mm. It stopped about 2pm the roads dried out and the sun shone for a billasecond, the clouds then looked very black thinking gee perhaps if it gets unstable....but back to drizzle. Not even showing on the radar this shyt.

Geoff » Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:47 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:Well, after yesterday warning friends and family that we were in for flooding rains today (quoting the BOM forecast), they will now think I'm a complete berk who knows nothing (probably right).
Yesterday's 4.20pm forecast could well be the most inaccurate in recent years, 1.6mm as of 2.45pm, and nothing much more to come today going by the radar.

Yeah it sure is a major discrepancy from forecast to reality. This time yesterday BOM saying 20-40mm likely. I get a little frustrated that they don't give any kind of explanation about what changed when they give their on air forecasts.

NE looking like continuing good falls for the next few hours. Mansfield weather reporting 24hrs rain approaching 45mm with 61mm MTD.

B

Several sessions of moderate rain here - looks like noise on the radar as well as underestimating the rate

The BoM were following the ECMWF model when they issued their forecasts last night ... which continued to indicate good falls through the central and Melbourne area during today. Other models such as GFS and ACCESS however indicated the better falls across northern parts of the state. Generally EC is the more trusted model (which is why I guess they followed it), but as John said the other day, EC has been rather poor lately. It would have been a hard forecast to issue.

Not sure on the rain areas forecast for tomorrow but we shall wait and see ... eastern suburbs might see it but should mostly be over eastern districts with showers elsewhere.

Jake Smethurst wrote:The BoM were following the ECMWF model

Yes that seems to have been the case Jake, but it does strike me as very odd, when the Access model is their own model - you'd think they would trust it!

Raining quite heavy here now and nothing on the radar being picked up
over me
However the radar is now showing widespread shower activity developing
At this rate could get another 40mm (not kidding)
The rainfall rates really underestimating

surprisingly had 11mm here since 9am! brings the total to 45mm !!

by the way the cyclone has been upgraded to a category 5!!!!!

Quite a good system in the end - and still going. 45 mm here, almost 2 inches for the older folk. The garden will go nuts next week in its last hurrah before winter.

Highest fall on the BOM page in the Melbourne area 18mm at Footscray since 9am yesterday, similar fall here which takes me to 50mm for the event... Fantastic

54mm all up now, thick drizzle still

31mm all up for us which was a great result.......the latter part went just north of us but happy with our lot...a nice early break for a change ........make the weeds grow, get a nice early kill then away we go.

Three days of continuous drizzle and light rain has now become drizzle and heavy rain bursts. Water tank overflowing (yes I did have to buy in 10,000 ltrs last week). Will paddle out to the Nylex when there's a break.

Swan Hill had 54.6mm on the 10th. bit soggy up there with 88 for the month..
getting our fair share and loving every bit of it, and yep watching that grass grow..

Bendigo is on track to beat the wettest April on record, we are 1mm from beating it. The record is 76mm

64mm here in Olinda since it began, and heavier stuff approaching now from the S/E.

The drizzle/rain just keeps on coming. There was a break for a while there earlier but has redeveloped.

Have to admit 3+ days of this is starting to test the patience of my 3 year old boy and Jack Russell. Both had ants in their pants last night.