Victoria: Unstable period and cold outbreak - 7th - 12th Jan

[Skywalker]

Rubbish week of weather coming up for my area, absolutely hate west/south westerly airstreams. We rarely do well out of these types of set-ups, plus on a more personal note it's creates a nightmare cycling experience for the ride home (head wind). grrrrrrr

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like winter outside. Hope we get some humidity and a strong trough after this event. Would make for some unbelievable storms with the colder upper levels IMO.

[stratospear]

Latest GFS suggests 850HPa temps close to zero degrees along coastal areas on Wednesday night. Should be some snow in the Vic Alps.

[johnno]

Latest EC also looks half degree to a degree Colder on Wednesday with once again the colder air being pushed N/W by at least 100-150ks compare to Yesterday evenings run

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Might head up to Buller, which would be the pic day, wed or Thursday.?

[johnno]

Wednesday

[Jake Smethurst]

Definitely Wednesday!! I am thinking we should keep the discussion in this thread for the upcoming frontal system for Wednesday. Most of our discussion about it has been in here, so common sense tells me this is the place for it. I have extended the dates until the 12th of January.

However the pattern does look very interesting with a strong cold front likely to approach southwest Victoria later Tuesday, increasing shower activity down there later in the day, with scattered showers and cold, windy conditions on Wednesday as the front pushes its way through. And as we said, likely to see snow on the Alpine Peaks. Strong to gale force southwesterly flow by the looks too, so coastal areas in for a very windy one.

Just had quite heavy showers pass on through here. We have had 15.4mm since 9am this morning, and in fact 7mm of that in the last 20 minutes with a rainfall rate being reached of 73.0mm/hr. Cold out there though, only 14 degrees!!

[nafets]

How is it looking for Phillip island the next few days? I'm expecting it to be cold and showery!

[I_Love_Storms]

How is it looking for Phillip island the next few days? I'm expecting it to be cold and showery!

Yep - cold outbreak! Rain/storms isn't relevant any more

[norfolk]

is it just me or does today not seem like a cold outbreak has arrived yet? Yeah its cooler than average, but its quite pleasant here

[I_Love_Storms]

is it just me or does today not seem like a cold outbreak has arrived yet? Yeah its cooler than average, but its quite pleasant here

Seems as though the bulk of the cold air will push in tomorrow morning http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... _hour.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[johnno]

Not suprised that BOM have lowered the temp to 19c now for Tomorrow and not suprised they have added hail in the Melb forecast which I mentioned the other day that there will be

[droughtbreaker]

Many suburbs will struggle to get to 17C tomorrow. Here it looks like around 14C tomorrow with a few showers and fresh to strong winds. I'm not expecting a great deal here in an unfavourable SW airstream but there will certainly be a few showers slipping through. It is a very significant cold outbreak for mid summer, something we don't see every year basically.

Close to the coast and particularly east of the bay will be really miserable tomorrow, a shocking wintery day basically. The Otways, Dandenongs and South Gippsland will be nasty places to be IMO, I'd be heading north if I lived there.

[johnno]

We don't see one every year but last one we had for Mid Summer was 3rd week of Janurary in 2010 with similar 850 temps

[Flangfest]

Down here at Apollo Bay for a few days...on and off showers here....heavy at times. First camping experience is certainly interesting weatherwise

[johnno]

I still expect a dusting down to 1400 metres & think 20-40mm will fall over the Melbourne catchments with spot falls as high as 50mm

[I_Love_Storms]

Really looking forward to tonight! Ec giving us 20mm sure to be some noise with small hail and thunder

[mick]

This is good, like winter, coldies off the bay, yummy.

[Jake Smethurst]

More heavy showers currently occurring!!

Saw about 15mm to 9am this morning, a further 13mm since 9am today. Good fall!!!

BTW, all AWF forecasts updated: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/main.html

EDIT: And HAIL!!

[Nick Sykes]

Nice little cloud band heading raipdly ne on sat pic near bass strait. some radar returns already showing from it and a few sparks earlier. nice summer cold outbreak