The Australian Weather Forum

Well I hope this system for us gives better than 4mm, because that's all we have for this month so far, it is drying out and really it hasn't been that hot. I would like to get to the 1000mm mark but not looking like it unless we get a few 'bombs' before NYE.Although I do think it will be a wet Christmas.

Should see 20-50mm of rain out there in Ballarat. The system seems to favour western and northern areas this time around which is good. Sharing is caring!! haha!

Should be a conditionally unstable day today. Lots of AccAs about already and moisture is good. A scattering of shower and storm activity across the state, becoming more widespread in the west and about the ranges this afternoon. Locally severe storms confined to the south and west along the trough and seabreeze convergence. Could be some local falls of 40mm if you get under a slow moving dumper.

Looking beyond that into tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the state and tend to heavy rain over western areas during the day. Flash flooding possible over western and northern areas later. Mainly fine in the far east. Warm to very warm and humid ahead of a milder S change in the west later.

Monday the rain and storms in C and E areas will break down and clear during the afternoon. Cooler S winds extending throughout. Isolated showers in the south following the rain mainly near the coast. Very warm in the far NE at first but cooler elsewhere.

Tuesday conditions will be cool and cloudy at first in the south with drizzle patches and light showers with fresh SE winds strong at times in the afternoon. In the north, sunny conditions with SE/E winds. Milder throughout.

Already some small cells, lightning active, around St Arnoud. Im surprised there is no mention at all on the BOM Forcast for Bendigo. Or most of western vic for that matter.....

Just sitting on the eastern side of that area of rain and a nice grey rain curtain so should be a nice drop under it and not moving quick. Good if it develops a bit more on it's east side so I can get something but nice to see things develop early anyway and may be a damp late arvo for some.

Rhino.

yeah should be an interesting set up...mid level storms and rain out west, and surfaced based thunderstorms and showers through the Eastern half today. clear air at the moment so will be big storms in the Eastern half of the state, the hotter it gets the better.

Tomorrow will be interesting, in that we may start off in clear air as our rain will be a new band that forms not the one out west atm. Given the Dps i suspect we should see at least 25-40mm across much of the state with this system.

A nice blob of convection out east from rowville. Agree with Karl that nice unstable summer day with hopefully a few surprises in central areas later

If the last 3 days are anything to go by, the ranges should fire up in the east in the next 40min or so....

rikjpool » Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:35 pm wrote:

rikjpool wrote:If the last 3 days are anything to go by, the ranges should fire up in the east in the next 40min or so....

There has been a growing blob of convection about due-east of me, but looks a long, long way off in the distance and still a little disorganised at the moment.

Rog.

Looks like a few storms going up in the west of the state and out east over the great divide.

Next 24hours looks very interesting especially in the west of the state, with some big falls predicted by the models and some very unstable air moving through with the trough tomorrow.

Nick

Heaps of high cloud around today. I suspect storms will have trouble getting going through central and western parts. The NE and far east ranges might be in with a shot though. I am guessing that little blob of rain around Avoca will stay in the general area all day and other areas of rain may develop through the western half. I can't see much for central though until later tomorrow and overnight into Monday. Hopefully EC isn't right and we get more than a few mm on and south of the ranges.

NE of me now is going up at a rapid rate, with most of what was happening east of me dieing down. The air is feeling quite heavy outside, and we are getting bits of mid-level cumulous forming (all horizontal at the moment though).

Rog.

West of the state is where to be at the moment. Central and metro areas won't see anything until late tomorrow or Monday morning.

I might be wrong but my senses are telling me this. It will be a good amount.

Im up fishing @ Tooleybuc, very windy and the temp has dropped, its looking very stormy, im off to the pub to sit it out

Area to the west and NW of Avoca has copped at least 25mm so far going by the doppler with more on the way from the NE so a nice start there. Stormy towards my N NE so might get something over the next hour.

Rhino.

Bit of convection out this way.
Looking at the radar it is going off in SA with warnings all up the sa/vic border, nothing on this side yet from bom.
Hoping for a good day tomorrow, day off to enjoy some storms before the xmas rush.

Plenty of activity directly over head, towers and storm seeding looking good. Not a lot on the west last look, but guess it can change quickly, south looked more immediate threat, though never copped a thunderstorm from that direction.

A couple of small cells just crossing the Yarra Valley now, could be something in it for us yet.

Some convection going up to the SE and NE here, just noticed a cell popping up around Warrandyte area on the 64km radar.

Non stop thunder here getting louder, could do with a drop after last weekends disaster

And now the Severe Thunderstorm Warning... might get something after all.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and FLASH FLOODING
For people in the Central, North Central and parts of the East Gippsland,
Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:54 pm Saturday, 17 December 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall
and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations
which may be affected include Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Geelong
and Melbourne.