Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[Petros]

Certainly no event on the radar for next 7 days. Maybe later next weekend the setup creating onshore rain on Aust. eastern flank may become ECL to meander S of Sydney early in the week after next?

[Ken]

The Week 2 forecasts (next week) from the NAEFS ensemble aren't suggesting anything too major at this stage due to most models starting to gradually weaken and slide that next front SE'wards as it approaches Vic and the slow-moving longwave ridge/split flow pattern in the eastern Tasman Sea. The Tasman Sea low scenario that Petros mentioned looks interesting though.

Probabilities of above/below normal temperatures. NAEFS currently shows a moderate signal for cooler than normal conditions around SE Oz:


Probabilities of precip exceeding 25mm. NAEFS confines most of the wetter signal to far southern parts of SE Oz. This is similar to the EC ensemble which is even less keen on the idea of Vic-wide widespread/heavy rainfall. Would only take a bit of a further eastward rather than SE'ward movement of the front to change this though:

[Dc449]

Hmmm... abit of a wait.

[stratospear]

Both GFS and EC are positioning a very cold pool of air over SE Australia this time next week, but rainfall totals aren't predicted to be anything of note. Perhaps 10mm... South Australia coastline might get a bit though.

[droughtbreaker]

It's looking alright to me at this stage. A decent band of rain on Sunday and then a major cold pool coming through in around a week. Both models are on to this now.

The cold air currently progged for next Tuesday is quite decent and snow could be expected down to 1000m at least, and probably flurries as low as 800m. It's still too far out though, and too much variation happening amongst the models from run to run to be overly confident, but never the less, the chances of this event coming off are pretty good IMO.

[Ken]

A couple of months from there, JAn 2010, something changed. I dont need to data, its a feeling i get when i step outside.

AV, was just scrolling through some older posts trying to find something when I came across this one. For what it's worth, model runs from as far back as late 2009/start of 2010 were showing increasing probabilities of wetter than normal conditions starting to spread across Australia from late autumn through winter and onwards.

[droughtbreaker]

I think some of us made a major error of logic by declaring that we had crossed over into 'different times', forgetting that climate changes, often dramatically only to change back again to something more normal, or sometimes back into drought. Of course it is all dependent on a number of factors, including La Nina and El Nino but many other cyclical and non cyclical factors.

Now that the La Nina has waned we are back to pretty much normal weather conditions and I see no reason why this won't continue for the rest of the year. In short I wouldn't expect too many more extreme deluges this year of the sort which defined the past spring and summer.

[Petros]

Sniping at others is hardly "looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Aus"???

The last 2 posts from a forecaster and a moderator as well!!?? - lift your games boys, trust your own predictions, and let the silent majority make their own judgement on who to follow, who to ignore or perhaps who is "on a roll".

Remember this is only opinions based on "undefined criteria". Some predict by the moon/planets, others by ants or aches in the knees, others more conventional.

This forum has no rule to mandate the prediction method criteria, AND UNTIL IT DOES SO, let everyone have a fair go for Gods sake.

Back to thread (ie. end rant) - next chance for rain is at least 9 days away in IMO.

[Robbo]

This does get very confusing,for "Newbies" trying to Interprit what charts others are Quoting etc etc...
In my opinion,just my 2 cents,regardless of charts ,websites,links,Weather is so unpredictable,afterall there is no Central Command,issuing "here's your report for 7 days ."

It was common knowledge up here in Spa Country,governed by the old timers,if you get a Hot Spring,Summer will be cool/Damp....not the case in 2008/9.
Spring/Summer 2010/11 one of the coolest- wettest,ever seen,but April had remained pretty dry.

Certain websites are calling "El -Nino" for the next coming Spring /Summer,is realy beyond me how that can be called so early in advance,
Just saying ,whatever happens does,forget all the old cockie tales,Weather does what it does ,it creates its own environment,its a closed loop,were just looking in,trying to diagnostic.

[Ken]

Sniping at others is hardly "looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Aus"???

The last 2 posts from a forecaster and a moderator as well!!?? - lift your games boys, trust your own predictions, and let the silent majority make their own judgement on who to follow, who to ignore or perhaps who is "on a roll".

I had a feeling someone would take it the wrong way. If you read my post again, you'll see that I deliberately said "for what it's worth" to avoid this very misinterpretation that I was "sniping" at someone. My intention was simply to mention that there were also some other indications of a possible turn towards wetter conditions by winter. So now when someone predicts some scenario, should I not even mention any other forecasts that happen to agree with them? Please don't jump to conclusions and tell me to "lift my game" or imply I'm sniping at people as it sounds very condescending.

Robbo: it's possible these days to get a fair idea of the likelihood of an El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions some months in advance in certain situations (e.g. after autumn or when most of the modelling agrees with each other).

[Petros]

Sniping at others is hardly "looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Aus"???

The last 2 posts from a forecaster and a moderator as well!!?? - lift your games boys, trust your own predictions, and let the silent majority make their own judgement on who to follow, who to ignore or perhaps who is "on a roll".

I had a feeling someone would take it the wrong way. If you read my post again, you'll see that I deliberately said "for what it's worth" to avoid this very misinterpretation that I was "sniping" at someone. My intention was simply to mention that there were also some other indications of a possible turn towards wetter conditions by winter. So now when someone predicts some scenario, should I not even mention any other forecasts that happen to agree with them? Please don't jump to conclusions and tell me to "lift my game" or imply I'm sniping at people as it sounds very condescending.

Robbo: it's possible these days to get a fair idea of the likelihood of an El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions some months in advance in certain situations (e.g. after autumn or when most of the modelling agrees with each other).

Sorry to misinterpret you Ken and please keep up the super-quality posts! I'm just very keen to retain an evironment for all to post their ideas/opinions, (having been in other forums where people move on or hide after thinking they may have embarrassed themselves). All opinions are gold because it helps "single thought track people" like me to think outside the box.

.... and STILL nothing on the radar in terms of "rain" for SE Aus on current model runs.

[adon]

Well starting to need a rain up here to get sowing the crops done on time. Soil is dry to from the surface to 30-40cm down now so need a decent rain to get crops and pasture growing. I like the look of the NW cloudbands that have developed over the last few weeks but need them to come down and link with a cutoff low. Any chance in the next couple of weeks?

[Petros]

Very humble request Adon.... I'd normally be asking you!!!!!

Cant see anything bar cold weather over SE Vic for my 2 bobs. (Gut feeling is very different - a wet winter is on the way in my opinion).

[crikey]

Hi Adon.; It must be hard being a farmer. Grain so costly l suppose.
The frosts seem in full force at the moment. What temperature is required for germination of seed?
We have a minor plague of mice here. Farmers concerned about sowing and mice eating. My neighbour mowed is acreage and said mice were running everywhere.
Do frosts destroy seeds or new shoots. It seems to be an early start to winter at the moment.
I don't know when the next low( ECL) is coming. Just have to check the synoptic chart and keep an eye open.
BOM are forecasting a generally average rainfall for autumn/ winter. Maybe you could stagger sowing to reduce risk. ( Maybe thats not practical?)
After years of drought l have forgotten what average rainfall is?

[adon]

Hi Adon.; It must be hard being a farmer. Grain so costly l suppose.
The frosts seem in full force at the moment. What temperature is required for germination of seed?
We have a minor plague of mice here. Farmers concerned about sowing and mice eating. My neighbour mowed is acreage and said mice were running everywhere.
Do frosts destroy seeds or new shoots. It seems to be an early start to winter at the moment.
I don't know when the next low( ECL) is coming. Just have to check the synoptic chart and keep an eye open.
BOM are forecasting a generally average rainfall for autumn/ winter. Maybe you could stagger sowing to reduce risk. ( Maybe thats not practical?)
After years of drought l have forgotten what average rainfall is?

Hey Crikey Grain being pricey is what we want! haha we grow it and keep our own seed. As far as germination is concerned, the current temps are not really a worry but would not want to be much lower. It slows germination moreso than stopping it for Australian grain growers. Frost can damage new crops but the frosts are not really that bad up here atm as the soild temp is still high enough for frost not to be too severe. We do tend to stagger seeding but it is more for the other end of the growing season when frost can damage flowering crops.

We are not after an ECL out here as that usually prevents us from getting rain. We need a cutoff low developing near Adelaide and moving across. or some decent rain bearing coldfronts.

[droughtbreaker]

After reading a few recent posts on here I would like to remind everyone to keep the level of discussion mature, respect all other's opinions regardless of whether you agree or not, attack the opinion and not the person posting, and refrain from name calling or disparaging terms.

Also, I seriously take issue with conflicts being started (that can destroy the discussion completely) over a petty issue, misunderstanding or overreaction.

[Jake Smethurst]

Some models have been hinting at another unstable period of frontal activity towards the latter part of next week. GFS this morning indicating a weaker front to come through around Thursday followed by a stronger system on the weekend with potentially further major rainfall for at least southern/eastern Victoria. Something to watch as we get closer, models have been quite good lately, and also worth a note that winds could be a problem ahead of and following these systems.

[adon]

Hope there is some link up to some northern moisture so that the NW ca get some out of these as we are starting to really need a rain. Will be keeping a hopeful eye out for this one.

[Ken]

Some models have been hinting at another unstable period of frontal activity towards the latter part of next week. GFS this morning indicating a weaker front to come through around Thursday followed by a stronger system on the weekend with potentially further major rainfall for at least southern/eastern Victoria. Something to watch as we get closer, models have been quite good lately, and also worth a note that winds could be a problem ahead of and following these systems.

The week 2 outlooks from both EC ensemble and the North American Ensemble Forecast currently paint moderate to strong probabilities of colder than normal temperatures spreading across a lot of eastern, inland and northern Australia during the last week of May:

EDIT: Here's a 2-week time series EPSgram from the EC ensemble for a sample point I've picked near 36S and 149E (southern NSW) which is in the area of the stronger probabilities of colder than normal temperatures. The wind direction probabilities (4th row from the top) shows most of the ensemble's forecast members going for mainly W'ly or SW'ly wind regime during this period although the lighter shading and broad range of directions around this time means a bit of uncertainty for this. Meanwhile the vertical bars represent the spread/uncertainty within the ensemble (the taller the bars, the greater the uncertainty... the median value is generally the most likely and is in the middle segment of the bars while the extreme min/max scenarios are the upper and lower tips of the bars) while the horizontal shaded bands represent average conditions for that location. As you can see, there's a boosted signal for precip as well as colder than normal temperatures next week for this location:
http://ken.bsch.au.com/gallery2/d/2703-1/EC_EPS.gif

Probabilities of above/below normal temperatures for the next 4 weeks from the EC ensemble (Week 2 is the upper right panel):


Probabilities of above/below normal temperatures for Week 2 from NAEFS:

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking chilly and EC holding I think a 30-50mm event for much of the state over the coming week or 10 days. Should see widespread cold temps and snow developing too.

Might be a settled start to June.