Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[I_Love_Storms]

May have one last shot with this band but it looks like the western areas and Otways have done best out of the positioning of this low. Interesting to watch anyhow and can't complain with 60mm

[Instability]

We got smacked well and truley with this system in the inner east. I picked up 41mm to 6pm yesterday and another 28mm overnight, for a grand total of 69mm to 9am this morning

Rog.

[Karl Lijnders]

Impressive list there!

Still getting thick drizzle but only 1.6mm of rain since 9am. Should see this go on for the next 3-4hrs with odd heavier burst. 84mm now for the event. 75mm to 9am.

[brayden]

Thanks Alexia

Very nice list! thanks HB

[melsy]

Good morning soggy people

Another 15.5mm here bringing the total to 41mm. Looks very grey and dark to the east in the direction of the Lake, but here the sun is shining and there's a gentle rain still falling ever so lightly.

Melsy, where are your family camped? If there's anything we can do to help, let us know. I haven't been out to check the park this morning (need coffee stat lol), but experience tells that there'll be quite a few people packing up and going home today with wet and sodden tents.

I think they are somewhere near Goughs Bay right near the lake. They called before and said the sun was out and they are staying.
Not even the rain will put a damper on their trip.

Total 59mm in the last 24hrs. What a fantastic weekend.

[Jake Smethurst]

Thanks for those DJ.

Still raining heavily here. We had 45.2mm to 9am this morning, not as much as the near 100mm in a 24 hour period in August, but a fantastic fall nonetheless! Also some fantastic falls around again. There is local flooding through this region again, similar to what was flooded here in August; farms, paddocks, tracks, dams, and even some roads! I should also mention that winds are starting to strengthen right up here, slamming the rain horizontal!!

Radar returns showing the main wrap around band to be contracting southeast with the low into Bass Strait, but still expecting moderate rainfall here for a little while following the main band which is not showing up on radar, as it's in the radar hole just east of Warrnambool (shown as white echoes).

[David]

64.5mm here with drizzle still falling, good falls in the catchments except the Thompson.

[sago]

62mm all up in my manual gauge. Fantastic!!!

[Ken]

The 24hr GPATS imagery recorded a solitary cloud-to-ground lightning stroke in the Melbourne metro area this morning. Have circled the stroke in black to make it more visible:

[Jake Smethurst]

AWF Update 10:14 AM

Heavy falls are continuing to be recorded in the last hour with the moderate to heavy rain band west of Geelong and around Colac, pushing towards the east to southeast now thanks to the low's wrap around, however moderate rainfall continues to be pushed on to the coastline from Bass Strait also thanks to the lows wrap around effects. This is producing high reflectivity rates and generally 20mm/hr rainfall rates, in some local cases higher. Generally elsewhere over the past hour, rainfall has eased over the central districts and also West Gippsland with just scattered showers remaining. Rainfall totals in the last hour have generally ranged up to 5-10mm across the Otway region which is being influenced by the rainfall near Colac, and generally elsewhere totals have been only a few mm thanks to showers.

At the present time, rain areas are generally affecting areas to the west and southwest of Geelong with moderate to heavy rainfall, and this is stretching over the Otway Ranges and also on to the region around Colac and the Great Ocean Road near Port Campbell. The orientation of this rainfall currently is varied, with the main band of rain west of Geelong moving in an east to southeast direction with the lows southeast movement, but moderate rainfall is persisting to push up onto the Great Ocean Road area around Port Campbell and further north from Bass Strait. Scattered showers generally over remaining central parts. Heavy rainfall is increasing the risk of flash flooding and main river flooding, particularly about the Otways and areas of the eastern Western district. Flooding is also becoming a concern elsewhere across the state today and tomorrow thanks to the heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday.

For today, the upper low will slowly move south to southeast and into central Bass Strait, which it is currently doing. The rain activity around the low will gradually move further southeast and clear offshore later this afternoon, so further periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected across the southwest and eastern parts of the western district. Strong and gusty SW winds will develop as the low winds up over Bass Strait and pushes further south tonight.

AWF Melbourne Forecast:

Sunday: Showers with conditions becoming cooler. Light SW winds freshening over southern suburbs, then extending throughout during the day and strengthening, before tending west to northwest and easing tonight.

For the latest host of warnings please visit http://www.bom.gov.au/vic for flood watches and warnings.

Next AWF Update at 11:30 AM

[Karl Lijnders]

10mm in the last hour @ Murchison so there are some locally heavy showers about.

Drizzly rainfall continuing here, getting quite thick again. 2.4mm since 9am so ticking over nicely!!

[Macedonian]

85mm at mt macedon, stopped now and cloud lifting, time to go out and splash about!

[dagget]

Checked the gauge this morning and 76mm really tipped down around 4am, calm and almost sunny now.

[johnno]

Great rainfall & great reports/forecasts guys.

65mm here incredible system for this side of town but believe it or not I still had more rain for the March rain/storms event.

Just want to bring up with the forecasts that the Upper low is progged to move across the state not SSE into Bass straight however the surface low is moveing SSE towards Tassie but the upper low will actually move ENE as progged by EC shown this for a few days.

As we speak the Upper low and cold has detached itself from the surface low and holds back over the Vic and SA border.

EC Tonight >> http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0103012!!/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

EC Tomorrow night >> http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0103012!!/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[droughtbreaker]

71.8mm overall here. I suppose some showers are likely to develop today but it might be a little unpredictable who ends up sitting under them. I expect some heavy showers developing with the cold pool, showers over night look to have been rather heavy.

A lot of posts to read through I guess with widespread 50-100mm across all the central areas, amazing system and one of the biggest for some time.

[johnno]

Cold air & upper low still just east of Adelaide guys shown on the Sat pic

[Petros]

We got another 1.25mm last night to add to yest arvos 1.25mm. An event total of 2.5mm. No wind storms or anything else to report.

That rain miser Proteous was right again!

[Pengaz]

Currently back in Sale for the weekend-weve had a measly 3mm since yesterday morning. Currently sunny with bit of a breeze, looks like it will remain largely fine for the trip back.

Some great totals in Melbourne yesty/overnight. Great stuff.

[droughtbreaker]

A few figures for my place.

October monthly total (to 9am**)- 169.2mm

Year to date total- 919.3mm- (Yearly average = 848.1mm*)

*Average was 900mm at the end of 1996 with our records beginning in 1974, long term drought has caused the average to plummet since then.

**I record rainfall in the evenings as I don't have an AWS so I can only record when I am home. Monthly total was only 140mm to 4:30pm yesterday afternoon

An incredible result. Probably wouldn't be all that incredible if it happened pre-1997 but given the extreme long term drought we have had this is a very significant month.

EDIT: Third wettest October since 1975, wettest since 2000.

[johnno]

Awesome stuff Andrew! How the creeks looking up your way this morning Jacksons, Emu, Deep creek? Heard any reports?

145mm MTD here incredible stuff!