Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[lightnin]

40 mm here so far, over double what Geelong has had - only 20 km away... Great steady rain over a 22 hour period.

[Supercellimpact]

54mm from 9am no rumbles here ..

[Skywalker]

Good morning all, up to 64mm here. This has simply been one fantastic event for this area & still more rain to come.

[stratospear]

Event total so far: 57mm.
I honestly didn't expect much rain to fall overnight so quite surprised to wake up to a downpour this morning.

[Jake Smethurst]

AWF Update 8:34 AM

Heavy falls have been recorded in the last hour or so, particularly with the heavy rain band southwest of Geelong pushing towards the southwest thanks to the low's wrap around. This is producing high reflectivity rates and generally 20-25mm/hr rainfall totals, in some cases higher. Moderate to heavy rainfall has also continued over the western ranges and west central regions, over the Dandenong Ranges and over parts of West Gippsland. Rainfall totals in the last hour have generally ranged up to 5-10mm across the Otway region which is being influenced by the rainfall southwest of Geelong, and generally elsewhere totals have been up to 5mm in other rain areas. There are still embedded isolated thunderstorms occurring.

Currently, rain areas are generally affecting areas to the southwest of Geelong with heavy rainfall, and this will continue to move southwest with the low's wrap around. Further north to the area northwest of Melbourne another rain band is recognisable and is moving towards the south to southeast, so Melbourne is again expected to see rainfall increase slightly in the next hour. Heavy rainfall is increasing the risk of flash flooding and main river flooding, particularly about the Otways and areas near the Otways currently.

Today the upper low will slowly move south to southeast and into central Bass Strait. The rain and isolated embedded thunderstorm activity around the low will gradually move further southeast and clear offshore later this afternoon, so further periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected across the southwest and southern central parts until then. Strong and gusty SW winds will develop as the low winds up over Bass Strait and pushes further south tonight.

AWF Melbourne Forecast:

Sunday: Rain increasing from the north and northwest during the next hour with locally heavy falls and the chance of a thunderstorm. Rain will tend to showers late this morning or early afternoon. Humid conditions. Light SW winds freshening over southern suburbs over the coming few hours, then extending throughout during the day and strengthening, before tending west to northwest and easing tonight. Becoming cooler.

For the latest string of warnings please visit http://www.bom.gov.au for the latest host of flood advices.

Next AWF Update at 10 AM

[tizza]

Nice forecast Jake, you couldn't happen to drop 6.1mm in Melbournes gauge in the next 20mins

[brayden]

Awesome stuff people! 50.8mm at Albury, 50-60mm+ totals for some places in the N.E, noice! and Alps getting alot more of course

[HarleyB]

up to 37mm here. Almost finished. Some big river rises to come which is worrying.

[Alexia]

Brayden the Hume Dam looks fantastic beleive they need trafic lights out there so many out looking.67mm rain at Cudgewa we had 42mm.

[stormygirl]

Great timing for my Weather Station to crash....AGAIN.

Still stuck on 43mm which I recorded last night. Tryingto get it fixed, but not much luck at the moment. I'm about to head out to the manual one...

EDIT: 63mm to 9am, 67mm event total so far. Highest amount recorded in a 24 hour period this year. 154mm MTD.

[lightnin]

Is it just my eyes or is the rain now starting to change direction, echoes west of Ballarat now look to be heading back east north east?

[ShaneEEEE]

Geelong Airport 18mm, lowest recorded in the central area which I am extremely dissapointed about.

24mm recorded in my automatic gauge which I will confirm with the manual gauge shortly.

Can only hope some of this rain to the west gets wrapped around here...but I am not holding my breath.

[Madmel]

Yikes I am usually internally complaining about the lack of rain we get here, but know I am complaining about the ocean of water floating around in my backyard!!! LOL3

Close to 60mm of rain recorded so far

[Jake Smethurst]

You are right Lightnin. After lookint at the 256km, it does appear that the northern side of the rain band is beginning to move more E now, but this is expected as the low moves offshore.

Heavy rainfall here all morning!!

[Blackee]

57mm to 9am, 60mm for the event so far!

[daviescr]

Looking lovely so far, now at 65.7mm for the event, 62.0 in 24hrs to 9am. Takes me to a whopping 167.2 MTD!

Shame there's been no thunderstorms as such, would have been the cherry on the cake for most of us to have embedded storms rumbling away all night

As others have said already, a massive thanks to Karl and Jake for your regular updates and forecasts - they have been a really insightful tool.

[mick]

Same here 60mm, will go have a look at the paddocks later.

[Lily]

Good morning soggy people

Another 15.5mm here bringing the total to 41mm. Looks very grey and dark to the east in the direction of the Lake, but here the sun is shining and there's a gentle rain still falling ever so lightly.

Melsy, where are your family camped? If there's anything we can do to help, let us know. I haven't been out to check the park this morning (need coffee stat lol), but experience tells that there'll be quite a few people packing up and going home today with wet and sodden tents.

[Dane]

Finished up with exactly 50mm's up to 9am. 52mm's for the event. Back yard is a swamp. not the wettest 24 hours this year though as we had 56.4mm's on 24.04.10. month finished on 129.2mm's which is only the 3rd wettest month here this year, August was 136mm's and April was 130mm's. YTD is now 817mm's which is 15 more than the annual average and now the 2nd wettest year in the 10 years i have lived here, 2004 had 868mm's but with two months to go this year we should beat that. Sensational system just drizzling here now and no thunder heard here.

[Blackie]

event total 31mm for us here so on the lighter side of falls around the place. Rained all night though.