The Australian Weather Forum

58.6mm here so far, was awoken at 4am to a few flashes and rumbles and torrential rain. Was just on the edge of it, was a little further East.

Its tilting now and GFS was on the money with West Central areas clocking up big falls as its pivoting on them since about 3 am.

i think another 10 - 20mm looks likely by the arvo which would make it a superb event, and provide lots of flooding statewide.

62 mm now in the manual guage which is 5 mm more than the weather staion is recording.

Come on, I want to see Melbourne break it's 24HR October record, we're currently sitting on 53.2mm, we just need 7.9mm more by 9AM. It was set on the 21st of October 1953, 61.0mm. There's a couple of juicy looking bands heading this way. We just might break it!

Becoming heavily convective now, the rain is moving quickly but the system is moving at snails pace. Another 8 hours of this will go down nicely, definitely thunderstorms a real possibility later this morning.

AWF Update 7am

Heavy rainfall and local thunderstorms over parts of W Central and North Central VIC are continuing to produce 10-20mm/hr rainfall totals in some areas increasing the risk of flash flooding and main river flooding. Otherwise scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms are affecting the remainder of central and northeast VIC with moderate falls also being achieved.

Today the upper low will slowly move SSE into C Bass Strait with rain and thunderstorms over the north and eastern part of that low gradually moving further southeast and clearing offshore later this afternoon. Strong and gusty SW winds will develop as the low winds up over Bass Strait and pushes further south tonight.

AWF Forecast:

Sunday: Rain, locally heavy over the west and north spreading throughout during the coming hour or two. Local thunderstorms chiefly in the west and northwest. Light SW winds inland freshening over southern suburbs over the coming few hours. Humid.

Remainder of Sunday: Rain tending to showers. Locally heavy falls and the risk of a thunderstorm clearing during the afternoon. SW winds extending throughout and strengthening before tending WNW and easing tonight. Becoming cooler. 18C

For the latest string of warnings please visit http://www.bom.gov.au for the latest host of flood advices.

Next AWF Update at 8:30am

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I love the thunderstorms that developed as was properly forecast by the BoM and people on here. Well done team.

Pounding down at the moment. 68mm since 9am yesterday here and up to 75mm for the system!! GO VIC....Byebye drought!

Lily wrote:Glad to see I'm not the only crazy person not sleeping at this time of morning I've woken to at first gentle rain and now much heavier rain up here in Eildon - radar is not accurately showing the intensity. No idea on totals, too wet and dark to go and check but will update in the morning. The park pump which drains water from the park into a natural depression in the land near our cabin is going pretty much constantly, so I would say intensity is similar to how it was earlier in the evening when we received over 20mm in one downpour.

Oh wow, now it is absolutely pouring, really, really loud on the roof! There's going to be some very wet and sorry campers in the morning.

Oh no Lily. Those wet campers would be my hubby and son. LOL
They just rang me and said it hasn't stopped all night and it's too wet to get out of the tent.

Does anyone know when it's expected to clear over Eildon way?

Karl, you guys put so much time and effort into your forecasts, not to mention that you put them up for everyone to see. I think it fantastic and that's why I love this forum.

Anyway starting to rain here again, I don't think it's going to be enough to break our current 68 year old record. The sky is so thick with moisture, I just wish we could cop a heavy shower in the next hour and a half!

Should ease from 12-2pm Melsy. The next few hours could see some flash flooding in the region if storms develop.

Really coming down here and closing in on 80mm for th event!! Now on 71mm since 9am yesterday!!

Thanks Tizza!! Don't be suprised by the radar underestimating!! Heaving down now!!!

Another decent moderate to heavy band here, but a much heavier and bigger stormy band following this. then the exciting part when it clear a little allowing for further bands to develop around the low..

Morning all.
58mm, including 55mm since 9am yesterday.
Lots of Flood Warnings popping up, including:

Moderate Flood Warning for the Mitta Mitta River Upstream of Lake
DartmouthMinor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River
Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River at Corowa
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Campaspe River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Goulburn River and Tributaries
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Seven and Castle Creeks
Minor Flood Warning for the Ovens River
Minor Flood Warning for the Buckland River
Minor Flood Warning for the King River
Minor Flood Warning for the Buffalo River
Moderate Flood Warning for the Watts River at Healesville
Minor Flood Warning for the Yarra River

Gunyah Bend is up to 73.8mm for the event after a convective shower just went through, and 192.2mm for the month...I'm hanging out to crack the 200mm....please!! The local nature of heavier falls is interesting - Clyve's on 49.4mm and that's 1km away but my rain rates have been more than double his consistently through the event (I'm further east) ...last night he had drizzle and I had rain....

Morning all, had no rumbles here thru the nite. Baro dropped to a min of 1003. 42mm here so far, we had heavy rain and some wind thru the nite.
Peter

10 mils is all we got in Horsham That was enough for us

Just up and about... lots of rain here overnight. Total so far for this system is 51.5mm.
Will get out and take some photos around Ballarat later this morning as I expect everything to be flooding and overflowing!

That's more like it! Just measured 45mm this morning after steady rain all night so our turn did come!

64mm since 3pm
69.5 system
149.5mm MTD. glad to be on a hill.

Just heard a rumble of thunder to my south I am assuming,

Can make out the convection and significant convection rings the sky in all directions here with light rain still falling out of the anvil of the thundery rain patch that has gone through. 8.8mm last hour here!! Slammed down!!

82mm for the event now!! 75.6mm since 9am!!!!!

Jane that is the same as the Scoresby AWS in these situations and me 5km away. We were even up until 4am this morning - then the convective rain took over!

There is a significant convergence band sitting from Macedon through towards Kerang which is showing signs of moving more E then S so that could give us another burst of rain. The rain over the top of the low is moving in line for Melbourne I feel and we should see further rainfall through to early afternoon.

Going to have a survey of the flooding.

6 more so alltogether we got 16 Just checked the gauge

looking at the radar loop, the low is diving south, so I dont expect much wrap around if any here. Will be heading up the Hume this arvo for the Hume Weir spillway(Camera/Vidcam aboard).
Peter