Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[Supercellimpact]

Yep everything you said is In Kevin's long range forecast.

[Twister]

You can have the strongest trigger in the world, but if you had no moisture, you will get no rain.

La Nina has played a huge part last 6 months if Dps were only getting to 15-18c we only be getting 80mm or so but we got record dps of 25c, so there is loads more moisture and when that trigger came in we had 150-200mm in Dec Jan and FEB

These events have being record breaking beyond belief the last 6 months, but if we start losing these moisture feeds then massive rain and storms will stop
Yes upper level support is very important look at the upper low in SE WA, nothing at the surface bar high pressure but with the upper low some 50-70mm falls and still raining out there but this has had a very nice in feed of moisture to.
but i have a feeling we are going to disagree on this topic so wont go further into it

Any way re chance of rain in future cant see much than few showers and odd storm for the state next week or so some may get 10-15mm from a few days of showers but thats about it.

Sure things will pick up again soon and think might see one more big event before it clams down to a more normal ISH pattern lol

Must say though after the last few years, this year will be very interesting to see whats happens as atm not sure what Enso or IOD will do

[johnno]

Giddy up folks! Odds are firming of another decent rain event next week for Southern/SE Australia including Victoria with plenty of moisture and humidity returning to our neck of the woods.. EC is firming on this idea, ACCESS also had it this mornings 12z run, GFS in its own weird way also trying to get something going.. looks like the cooler and drier air will be replaced Sunday/Monday onwards back to warmer (but not hot) and moister conditions due to 2 tropical lows moveing Southwards 1 over inland WA and the one which will have more of an effect on us comeing down from GOC towards Eastern SA and developing into a slow moveing surface trough as it interacts with an upper trough over the Bight area, still 6-7 days but I can sniff this one feel it and almost taste it, a nice way to start off March & Autumn if it comes off.

Yes I agree La Nina has played a major role but the Negative IOD influence July to October gave us alot of the rains in Victoria over that time period but as the IOD season came to an end in November La nina has had more of an impact during the late Spring and Summer period, I agree with you both you need the triggers Dean as without the triggers we would see alot less rain but at the same time if you don't have the moisture coming in from Northern Oz we would also see less rainfall even with the triggers

[Petros]

Agree J - can you start a Vic thread on this?

[johnno]

Will wait another 24 hrs Petros if EC holds will start a thread up in breaking weather I supect it will but will give it another day

[Twister]

Yes we need both,
I was just saying that it is this extra moisture that has allowed these triggers to explode, I am sure if we had the triggers in 09, we still would have had low rainfall
But you can have no trigger great moisture and get nothing and vice versus
We are all right, both triggers and moisture was been great last year or so, pointless going on about this further.
Its been the best 6 months ever and i am going to miss the tropical flood every 2-3 weeks sure many wont miss it though.

Yeah John saw the models this morning and thought if this holds mid next week could be another interesting system but think might give it another 36-48 hours hoping it holds

[Karl Lijnders]

ACCESS being onto it is interesting with lower resolution and parameters to EC. I think it is looking like a very humid and stormy week with better storm potential.

[Ken]

But without giving away all the secrets, reading of the play is important. Thats why i look at models most days and bring up my breakfast. Because i know that it will change, just like this Saturday did as i suggested 4 days ago. Everytime we have had a lull this summer we have been obliterated. Systems have had time to load up with 14 days break and then demolish us, thats why its setting up now as we speak, this time though its a seasonal set up change coming, and it will be violent. Remember, not much cold air from the South has been involved yet with all our rainfall, troughs have moved down from the interior or tropics.

I sense we are setting up for a huge cut off Low ala Feb 2005..which is not easy as the planets need to aligm, but somethings brewing, and the models will start to jump all over it in the next few days.

Where is this system? It's been over a week and there's been no signs in models of such a system

[Karl Lijnders]

LOL!!! It is just being a little bit of a floozy, playing with us, teasing us, something is there, how great remains to be seen.

I still think humid and unsettled next week.

[johnno]

Getting inside info (can't reveal my sources) of massive rains hitting SE Australia within the next 2 to 2.5 weeks.. From different sources I have heard all point to the 1 thing.. There was talk earlier in the month of 350mm perhaps falling in NW Victoria this month can't remember who said it?? Since then I have heard 3 NEW different information all pointing to massive rain which believe it or not may eclipse what we had in September and January, If I'm wrong I am perpared to cop egg on my face but given I have heard reports of 8-12 inches in the next 2 weeks or so in some areas near and in Victoria I think 99% of people would be very glad if I am wrong! But I have warned you guys be prepared!

[Lily]

Ouch Johnno, here's to egg on your face, because I don't think any of us want to see you being right about that, especially our regional friends

[WaterBaby]

Will be very interesting to see what happens (and hoping like mad it doesn't!)
Forewarned is forearmed though hey.

[Lily]

Somebody please tell me it's not going to be too wet early Saturday morning and Sunday morning for the little bloke to play his cricket semi finals. Please?! lol

If they don't play either/both of those days, they'll have to play Monday which then completely mucks up our long weekend "away" (which is barely happening now as it is if he plays Saturday and Sunday, we'll only be able to go away Sunday into Monday!).

[Karl Lijnders]

Lily a fine although foggy/humid morning. One or two showers developing through the afternoon with the chance of thunderstorms. That Melbourne forecast is translated state wide as we get a bit of repeating pressure trough.

Come later in the weekend into next week, we may start to see some of this rainfall that Johnno is speaking of above, develop, over parts of inland Australia before ultimately moving southeast into VIC/SA/NSW.

[Lily]

Thank you Karl, fingers and toes crossed!

[johnno]

Getting inside info (can't reveal my sources) of massive rains hitting SE Australia within the next 2 to 2.5 weeks.. From different sources I have heard all point to the 1 thing.. There was talk earlier in the month of 350mm perhaps falling in NW Victoria this month can't remember who said it?? Since then I have heard 3 NEW different information all pointing to massive rain which believe it or not may eclipse what we had in September and January, If I'm wrong I am perpared to cop egg on my face but given I have heard reports of 8-12 inches in the next 2 weeks or so in some areas near and in Victoria I think 99% of people would be very glad if I am wrong! But I have warned you guys be prepared!

Psstttt its coming.. Now the models are showing ominous signs especially EC & ACCESS

[Petethemoskeet]

Yeah Johnno i agree.I know it's at the end of its run but access is looking very nasty, Noahs Ark type rain.IMO the Nth Central,NE and East look to get the bulk of the rain at the moment.

[HarleyB]

On all the charts i've seen I cant see this, can someone point me to a link, unless it's pay-for-view?

[Lily]

Nor can I Harley, can you show us what you're hinting at guys? Pretty please

[Didjman]

not sure if it's related(I think it is), but here the town has a rat/mouse plague. Traps & poison are selling at my work (Hardware Store) like hot cakes!! And the rates of sales are going up. First time in 2 years, the shelves have been cleaned out!
On another note, what links do people have for these models/forecasts?
Peter