Victoria: Thundery Weather. February 7th-12th 2010

[Twister]

Well looking interesting today and for the first time this week no convection here yet cap holding on stronger than any other day but hopefully the trough can break this and it will be a good day but better to the S though.

Gusty NNW winds here drying things out a bit and getting very hot again

37/12c atm would rather a 37/18 but cant have it all

Trough to my west and some nice Ac and chunky Cus in a line to my SW W, will likely have to go south today showers popping up to my S SW and all moving SE so everything will be pushed south today

Big day in south storms just firing now north of Horsham should explode by 2pm no Cu field yet which is strange after the last week we have had, but this due to stronger cap and once broken will lead to bigger storms

[DarkEye]

Light rain starting to fall.

[johnno]

No worries Lily.

I have seen 3 white tails and 1 huntsman so far this Summer at my girlfreinds place none here so far

30c now here

[Instability]

This cloud cover has got me concerned about what it is going to do to convection. For the event so far we have had about 5 minutes of spitting in Burwood - not enough to register - so I am hoping to get at least something before the event is through.

Rog.

[stratospear]

Back in Lilydale and Cu is exploding to my North. Seabreeze basically non-existent here.

Photo of weird cloud swirl over Bendigo yesterday attached:

[Lily]

Yep, we're up to 30.1 now. Have a look at the Adelaide (Buckland Park) 512km radar, the rain is hugging right along the coast. Pt Lincoln has 11.8mm so far. Wind's swung around to the SW here now...

Edit: Scrap that, now it's gone back to NE... and now NNW! All over the shop!

[AUS_Twisted]

There's a lot of mid level white tail junk around here with a few huntsmans, hopefully see some red backs in the next few hours. lol sorry couldn't help it with all this spider talk again

[adon]

Just had a shower with one rumble in it. Just happened to be ontop of a silo at the time so was a little hairy. Got a light shower but sort of just fell apart as it moved across. Looks like more developing to our NW so won't be long. It's so bloody humid this morning, it just has to explode!

Edit: BTW just found a redback under the bed this morning.....hmmm maybe time to call the spider bloke in!

[Blackee]

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:26 am Thursday, 11 February 2010,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 11 February 2010.
A surface trough is located in the far southwest with a very warm and humid air mass to the east across the State, likely to produce widespread thunderstorms again today. Thunderstorms expected to be widespread and with increasing wind shear today and the trough in the southwest moving across the State late today, severe thunderstorms are to be expected, particularly in the south. Thunderstorms should clearing from the west slowly during the day but continue in the east for much of the night. Storms risk in the Melbourne area will be highest from early afternoon and clearing around 9pm tonight.

[DarkEye]

Judging by that storm chart, I shouldn't see any storms today would you guys agree or not?

[James]

that map looks good but i am not getting excited till i see it happen! - after so much hype over previous events i am feeling very cautious on this one

[Lily]

*slaps AUS_Twisted over the head*

[daviescr]

Hi All, decidied to try my luck again on a chase. I'm obviously still a newb with chasing, and still learning exactly how pull off a good one.

Was a late start for me and the wife (on maternity leave - hot and bored at home) so I took the laptop and headed north east at about 2.30pm, through Healesville, then north to Alex. As we were watching the radar pretty much the whole time, we though we'd be in for a cracker in the area. Everything was happening out to the west, maybe 15-25km's west of Yea - more or less a direct line from where we were. Looked fantastic on the radar.

Jumped back on the road and headed through Yea, NW to Seymour. Stopped halfway and took a dirt track and off-roaded a bit to get to a peak, and it was like someone pulled the plug! Spent about an hour hearing rumbles, but it seemed to just stall and saw maybe 10-15 CG's in that time. No rain whatsoever during this time either - 4.30-6pm roughly.

Gave up and headed home the long way, back through Yea then doubled back to Flowerdale, Kinglake then Whittlesea. Rained retty much the whole way home, but nothing torrential.

Not sure I get the moral of this story, but I'm seeing that chasing comes down to probably 50% luck and 50% judgement. And maybe a much earlier start

Gotta finish early today, but two more jobs to do! more haste, less speed....

[Blackee]

Stay local today Chris.
You'd get a good view if you headed to the Eltham-Yarra Glen Road which has a pretty mint view of the City and surrounds.

[daviescr]

Stay local today Chris.
You'd get a good view if you headed to the Eltham-Yarra Glen Road which has a pretty mint view of the City and surrounds.

Thanks Wes, definitely, and I spotted the fire obs tower at kangeroo ground last night on the way home on the E-YG rd - looks like a nice spot there. Reckon I'll pop up there when I can...

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Can here a few spits on the laser light roof.
one huntsman last night, huge white tail on my towel the night b4 and last dead spider few days back was a red back.

[Karl Lijnders]

Expect the radar to be a Christmas Tree in and around Melbourne in the next hour and thundering over a lot of Melbourne by 2pm. Should see some hefty totals.

Looking like the first storms starting from the NW. Adam are these mid or surfaced based?? To me they looks middle based here.

[Blackee]

Judging by that storm chart, I shouldn't see any storms today would you guys agree or not?

Darkeye, more thundery rain, rather than thuderstorms itself for you.
The way the band is coming in from SA you will pick up 10mm+

[firestorm]

I'm in Ascot vale Lily 8ks NW of the City


Firestorm - Is there still fog your way? On the observations it says 100% humidity still down there indicating fog to me

Yeah Johnno fog is in atm but has lifted quiet abit it cleared out for 30min to give me a look at all the great clouds forming up just nicley and now its poured back in very fustrating atm down here i must say thought had the SW change about 9am but now this wind has eased to nothing almost feeling abit NW atm which is good

[rychenroller]

Hard to tell, we are 8/8 here Karl. Considering all the developement seems to be taking place around/within this gunk I'd say yeah, mid based but dark bases developing.


No wind at all