Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

[tizza]

Or Death Valley, once again those little valleys are like pressure cookers in summer, it's not an easy choice at all, it's quite a tricky question. I still loving the suggestions though, thanks for the replies!

[Robbo]

Fair enough mate.
Valley of the shadow of death/Buckland Valley,was so named in the initial Gold Rush of 1853/4/5.Populations were decimated by disease,oh Gold Fever at its worst
Never the less ,that area has an awesome climate [in my opinion],hot dry heat over Spring /Summer,Autumn -winter cool,cold,dry days.No south west changes from the west,like here.As "daviescr" said ,i too would move there ,alas there is no manufacturing sector up there,so just periodic trips for me....

[tizza]

I'll look into that Robbo, cheers

[johnno]

305mm for Summer as it stands for Melbourne at the moment! After 313mm for Spring! Spring/Summer rainfall combined is a staggering 618mm!! Normally in a Year you get 648mm for Melbourne!! So a Years rainfall has fallen the past 6 months since September what a remarkable turnaround!

[Macedonian]

Last day of a truly remarkable Summer at Mount Macedon.I recorded 506mm of rain for the three months, cant quite believe that amount! Its still drizzling now and cold at 12C
Only about 3 days over 30C Quite a few days with maxs less than 15C and last week we had a minimum of 5C, not sure which night that was. There is the first sign of some autumn colour on some of the american maples and a poplar.

[Macedonian]

Dont move to Macedon,Tizza, soggy,damp and l-o-n-g Winters, where you get Moss on your south-facing side if you stand still for longer than 10 minutes

[johnno]

Has anyone noticed in Melbourne last few days that the Prunus and plum trees are already starting to drop their leaves? Am I imagine it guys? Or anyone else seen it? If so it is extremely early! Given February this Year has been cooler than March of last Year it probably wouldn't be suprising, also the fact this Summer Victoria and Melbourne has seen alot more dull days and less sunshine compare to the norm which also may be sending some decidious trees into Autumn mode

[johnno]

Also clovers in lawns here going mad all over the place! whether its in nature strips, parks or someones lawn there everywhere! Unsual site for late February can't recall ever seeing clover this time of the Year let alone in masses like this usually there seen in Spring in particular September and October

[crikey]

Yep : we have clover thriving on our block in Dunolly. It is welcome. Nitrogen fixing nodules.
Also an obnoxious weed with a radial wheel spoke shape. Don't know its name but have been uprooting them for weeks. Also lots of mushroom nucei.
Locust activity has declined.Grape vine leaves are autumn color.
Reports of the odd mouse and spider infestation in homes as they take shelter.
Also bull ants been building high mounds all summer.

[Macedonian]

johnoo, the clover is doing well because it has been wet and coolish, usually it would be February-fried by now. My plum is bare up on the mount, very early, i think that it doesnt like so much rain.
i think we will be in for a good autumn,for so many years now trees have been defoliated early from drought and heat stress. Hopefully this year it will be a nice autumn.

[droughtbreaker]

There is a bit of what I guess you'd call 'mock' Autumn colour around here. We have a few small to very small trees that have never taken off due to drought and other factors which have either dropped all their leaves without changing colour or are changing colour now and there are a few trees around that are already into Autumn mode. 95% of the garden is still green though with little to no Autumn colour which is a good sign, all is set basically for a fantastic Autumn.

The reason that deciduous trees go into Autumn mode and colour and drop leaves early is because they are under stress. In drought years, or years where there has been water logging in summer ( a very rare occurrence in SE Aus but it happened very badly this year), trees will drop leaves and go into dormancy at the earliest possible opportunity.

[johnno]

From Blair Trewin..

October-February ranks 3rd highest ever for Melbourne interms of rainfall (566.0mm, behind 586.4mm in 1954-55 and 582.8mm in 1934-35). Spring/summer rainfall for Melbourne ranks 6th (619.0, record 655.6 in 1916-17).

But it is the wettest Spring/Summer for Victoria as a whole

[HarleyB]

This morning is the coldest here since October 24, 2010. Last year, the first night that was this cool was not up until April 12th. Very interesting indeed, and could it be the first sign of us having a very cold winter this time around?

[Supercellimpact]

Had a look outside and belive or not there was very light frost, are minimum was 4.6c, 1.4 below forecasted minimum. This season change is coming right on cue. But I wish we could get a severe storm outbreak.

[HarleyB]

What.............? Has anyone seen the BOM's latest seasonal outlook forecast map?

[johnno]

I don't take that to heart Harley every month and season they say it will be warmer than average

4 days in a row Melbourne has not seen 20c when was the last time this happend at the end of February/Early March? 10? 20 Years? Mabye more? Could easily be 6 in a row if Tomorrow and Friday come off even with the heat island effect.. The suburbs shouldn't have any trouble staying below 20c for another 2 days, funny isn't it last Year we couldn't buy a 20c until April or was it May? And it sticks in our mind thanks to the BOM reminding us day in day out of the long sequence of 20c+ but a completely different story this Year!

[johnno]

More stats and records.. We have equalled (4 days in a row) Late Feb/early March 2003 of longest below 20c for Melbourne back then it was from the 28th to the 3rd March before that we have to go back to 1984 (27 years ago) when there was a sequence of 5 days late Feb and Early March of below 20c for Melbourne from Feb 27th to March 3rd so if Tomorrow we see it go below 20c again we will equal a 27 Year record, only reason this may not occur would be to the heat island effect as I expect all suburbs to stay below 20c once more Tomorrow, IF Tomorrow and Friday remains below 20c (6 days in a row) for the CBD it will break a longer record which I will check out either Tonight or Tomorrow

[Petros]

Its all due to global warming Johnno. We are told by reputuable government and government funded agengies (including universities and our state education system) that there is no longer any doubt.

Initially from the "80's - early last year, the global warming models created predictions of extended terrible droughts for SE Aus. But now since mid 2010, global warming has far worsened for us SE Aussies. Its now morphed into a phenomena that not only causes terrible droughts, but also unprecidented hail stone sizes and bigger thunderstorms, shocking flooding, record low winter temperatures, "above average" Summer temperatures like this summer Victoria has experienced according to BOM, and any other unusual weather phenomena. Presumably, soon the models will be re-tuned to demonstrate these variabilies they accidently missed under the current programming parameters.

The above must be true because we all believe what our respected experts tell us. They wouldnt be influenced by "funding blackmail" by an AGW alarmist government would they? - no way!. And above the experts, the government itself wouldnt lie to us - would it!?

[droughtbreaker]

Had a look outside and belive or not there was very light frost, are minimum was 4.6c, 1.4 below forecasted minimum. This season change is coming right on cue. But I wish we could get a severe storm outbreak.

Yeah, some light frost around Macedon as well. Our minimum was 4C here but my car thermo recorded 3C at Macedon at 7:00am, even prompted an icy roads alert to come up on the dash of my car, (and there was a bit of ice on the road).

[Gordon]

What.............? Has anyone seen the BOM's latest seasonal outlook forecast map?

Harley go back through recent archives on that site & compare what was predicted with what actually happened. Worryingly often, the 3 mth forecasts are not only wrong, but diametrically the opposite of what occurred.

The BOM do a lot of great work, but their seasonal outlooks should be abandoned for SE Australia - at least until their accuracy improves. Presently, there is a good argument for looking at any of these forecast and flipping them to get something half credible; e.g. a forecast for drier than average actually predicts wetter than average, and so on.

Btw I dutifully tried to complete the BOM's survey on this very subject, and after spending about 15 minutes of my precious time wading through it, the freakin' thing jammed! Maybe it sensed what my answers were going to be...