Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[schitzengiggles]

Yep! Where there is a chance, we will forecast it and not be apologetic for it. Besides, the rain is amazing but I guess you have got to find something wrong with the day or it wouldn't be a normal one .

Nearly 60mm here and rain still tumbling away. If I had to trade in every storm day to get another one of these events, I would...knowing how important water is changes your priorities and we should all be rejoicing!! Go VIC!!

Hey, the rain's great. I'd rather it came when they were 10/100ish, rather than 8/100ish.

[Jake Smethurst]

AWF Update 12:39pm

Rainfall has increased over the past couple of hours through the northeast and central districts, but more particularly the western ranges stretching south towards the Great Ocean Road where it is now moderate. Heavier falls continue though in the rain areas over northeast Victoria with isolated thunderstorms still occurring. There has also been a marked increased in rainfall over the northwest of the state with a rain band associated with the low pressure system. During the past hour, rainfall has mostly ranged between 5-10 mm over the northeast and eastern ranges, with patchier falls around 1-5mm across central parts and about 5mm falls over the western ranges and the Otway ranges area.

Currently areas of rain are generally increasing from the north to northeast as the low pressure system slowly intensifies and moves ever so gradually towards North Central Victoria. Most of the rainfall is currently affecting the western ranges and also up in the northeast of the state with heavier bands. Moderate rainfall is also continuing over the Central district from the north, with Melbourne seeing intermittent rainfall. This will increase overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are also evident across the northeast of the state currently which is bringing heavier falls. There is also the possibility for isolated thunderstorms in the northwest overnight as well as a band of rain. If you look closely at the radar returns for the 512km Melbourne doppler, rainfall has started to orientate slightly for a NE to SW movement over the western ranges region of rainfall, with this signature becoming more defined overnight as rain increases and the low moves closer, with the other areas of rainfall likely to do this as well.

The low will move closer to North Central Victoria overnight and as mentioned above, will tend to influence the rainfall orientation and cause it to come out of the northeast heading southwest. This is when rainfall is likely to become locally heavy again over the northeast ranges, through central parts and even over the western ranges and Otway regions. The main wrap around is expected tomorrow from the low as it moves offshore into central Bass Strait and causes rain areas from the southwest heading northeast. Gale force winds are likely to develop overnight near the coast, and particularly tomorrow morning across Victoria as the low enters the Bass Strait, with warnings already current for that scenario.

Flood warnings have been issued for many parts of the state, with more likely later this morning. If you are near a major river system in a flood watch area then please visit http://www.bom.gov.au/vic" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for the latest warnings.

Melbourne Forecast from 12:30AM-6:30AM

Sunday: Intermittent rain, increasing during the early morning with locally heavy falls, leading to possible flash flooding and the chance of thunderstorms, tending to showers during the afternoon. Light winds this morning, becoming strong and gusty SW later in the morning and possibly reaching gale force shifting, WNW later and easing.

Next AWF Update at (no further AWF forecasts until later this morning, between 6-8am)

[Twister]

Back edge of rain band, wrap around, upper low has done very well locally with steady to heavy rain and drizzle last 6 hours LOVING IT

13mm with wrap around
18mm from rain band
31mm so far

WOW once again what a system and still loads to come 50mm falls in the city 100mm falls in the mounts and still periods of rain for many in those areas for the next 12-24 hours unreal

Few Notes
Rain and Thunderstorms in NE Vic will thicken and tend to a nice band of heavy rain next few hours so big falls out there huge 100mm falls in the mounts there already which is unreal
Upper low and warp around moving through the NW now, quite a narrow heavy band of rain and winds really starting to pick up now as well, gusting over 40km/h and increasing.
Watch for an intense Wrap around to develop in SW Vic in the morning, another 30-50mm possible under it, watch out Jake and others down there, as there are signs of it just starting to develop now, this will only increase, could be quite wild down there in the morning with some of it moving into the Melbourne area later in the day

Lots more rain to come for the NE and most south and mount areas with tilting of rain band and then wrap around
Rain clearing in W NW parts now but Showers and small hail with the odd cold air storm developing tomorrow avro with cold pool moving overhead

What a system and as spring goes on, we are getting wetter and wetter, we still have the Huge months of NOV and DEC to come once these cold pools slam into a 36/20c air mass things will be far more intense than today.
Like many have said and i agree, there is still heaps more to come next 2 months could provide the biggest systems yet.

BTW last 3 big systems have dumped over 30mm of rain this is unheard off up here, never have we had 3 systems in a row do this, we are sitting on 150mm last 2 months thats 6 months of rain in 7 weeks CRAZY and i am sure many are in the same boat
For the last 10+ years a 15-20mm day was huge, 30mm was epic and biggest of the year oh how things have changed for the better this year

Winds picking up here on the back side of the low should be cold air showers about tomorrow hoping for some hail and a few more mms

Could there be more rain this weekend just love it

31mm from the system so far
85mm for the month CRAZY

[Meso]

Despite all the reports of thunderstorms occurring across the state, there has been a grand total of 21 lightning strikes detected across Victoria in the past 24 hours (to 11pm)...of which the majority were offshore. http://www.gpats.com.au/php/repository/VIC.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sorry if I'm being a bit cynical, but I'm just about sick of reading the words thunder and thunderstorms in all these posts when clearly there isn't really much happening apart form a great deal of rain. Even the BoM chart with more than 50% of the state covered in red was a long way from reality in hindsight.

[occluded]

Steady rain continuing here, nice to hear it raining on the roof.

Looks like a fair bit more on the way over the next 24 hrs or so. Sunday morning looking like it might be interesting. Loving the AWF forecasts too, keep up the good work!

Just back from a few flooding jobs and a tree on a house. Almost no wind around but the soil is so moist and waterlogged that trees are dropping without any assistance from the wind.

Heard on our radio that a woman and her kids were stuck in a car in rising floodwaters, didn't catch where it was but hope they got out ok.

[Meso]

Radar doesn't show it but it's p'ing down here now! Might crack the 50mm mark after all!

[AUS_Twisted]

Despite all the reports of thunderstorms occurring across the state, there has been a grand total of 21 lightning strikes detected across Victoria in the past 24 hours (to 11pm)...of which the majority were offshore. http://www.gpats.com.au/php/repository/VIC.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sorry if I'm being a bit cynical, but I'm just about sick of reading the words thunder and thunderstorms in all these posts when clearly there isn't really much happening apart form a great deal of rain. Even the BoM chart with more than 50% of the state covered in red was a long way from reality in hindsight.

So what would you say if the guys here said there would be no chance of Thunder/Thunderstorms and there was some? with the system we have had so far there was always a chance of embeded Thunder/Thunderstorms. I still think theres a chance today, probably won't be anything special if there is but theres still a chance.

[Meso]

Despite all the reports of thunderstorms occurring across the state, there has been a grand total of 21 lightning strikes detected across Victoria in the past 24 hours (to 11pm)...of which the majority were offshore. http://www.gpats.com.au/php/repository/VIC.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sorry if I'm being a bit cynical, but I'm just about sick of reading the words thunder and thunderstorms in all these posts when clearly there isn't really much happening apart form a great deal of rain. Even the BoM chart with more than 50% of the state covered in red was a long way from reality in hindsight.

So what would you say if the guys here said there would be no chance of Thunder/Thunderstorms and there was some? with the system we have had so far there was always a chance of embeded Thunder/Thunderstorms. I still think theres a chance today, probably won't be anything special if there is but theres still a chance.

So say "chance of thunderstorms", not stuff like "thunderstorms are occurring", when really there isn't much evidence to suggest there is. Power Storms post before said "Heavier falls continue though in the rain areas over northeast Victoria with isolated thunderstorms still occurring". Show me the evidence of thunderstorms in the NE today/tonight.

I have no issue with people forecasting storms. If you think there is a chance, then great, get the warning out there. I just can't understand how some people on here draw the conclusion that there is active storms around when they have nothing to back up their statements with.

[fiztig]

Well, the wind turned pretty fierce at about 2am here. I've heard some trees and large branches coming down close by, and even though we're in a pretty protected spot normally, these NE winds have been buffeting us for the past hour and a half - so much so that I can't sleep Thankfully it looks to be easing a little so I won't be waiting to see if the roof sails away into the neighbour's paddock!
Wind speeds at Hotham over 100km/h with gusts to 135km/h. Falls Creek had gusts to 137km/h.

We've had trees coming down all over the place up here with so much moisture in the soil, so with this wind there's bound to be more flopped over in the morning. We're meant to be off to Melbourne at 7am. Guess we better pop the chainsaw in the back!

[AUS_Twisted]

Just had a rumble of Thunder here and I see lightning on the tracker.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

thunder, and need calculator to work out totals.

53mm since 3pm

[SC.]

Yep saw flash and heard rumble here too

[Onetahuti]

Roll of thunder here @ 3:54am, light rain,47.5mm om weather station since 9am so expect a little over 50mm in manual guage.
Confirmation

[I_Love_Storms]

Got it here as well. Have surpassed the city rainfall now. Got 50mm here. Buckle up your seatbelts, becoming very convective now, there will likely be a few more rumbles throughout the morning. As far as I can tell, the upper low is still around Ouyen area. Western, North Country, North Central and Central areas are right in the firing line of the wrap around! No more looking at models now, it is happening! Enjoy!

[Lily]

Glad to see I'm not the only crazy person not sleeping at this time of morning I've woken to at first gentle rain and now much heavier rain up here in Eildon - radar is not accurately showing the intensity. No idea on totals, too wet and dark to go and check but will update in the morning. The park pump which drains water from the park into a natural depression in the land near our cabin is going pretty much constantly, so I would say intensity is similar to how it was earlier in the evening when we received over 20mm in one downpour.

Oh wow, now it is absolutely pouring, really, really loud on the roof! There's going to be some very wet and sorry campers in the morning.

[Meso]

Enough please guys, I realise the frustration but I have to step in and say its wandering away from the actual topic of breaking weather.

Meso, you are treading into very complicated territory. Unfortunately I am going to have to point out that Strictly....a thunderstorm is a misnoma for the type of convection you are pointing out. Very intense convective storms can produce no lightning whatsoever...not all cases, but these have been known to produce large harge and intense tornadoes. By the same token, just because a shower produces lightning (hint 400 CAPE is the supposed lower limit for lightning...which isnt really that intense), doesnt mean that there is anything special about it whatsoever. It frustrates me somewhat as well when people talk about storms/thunderstorms in the context of a rainfall event, because as Doswell 1996 points out, heavy rainfall does not actually demonstrate a storm to be severe, as it is highly dependant on the topography and other factors, rather than an updraft being particularly intense. However this being said, I would suggest you pay more attention to the concept of Deep Moist Convection (DMC), which covers this avenue and clears up the misinterpretation of thunderstorms, it talks about convective cells which produce intense updrafts and extend for a large portion of the troposphere. Now that I have put this out there I would ask those referring to thunderstorms and storms in a rainfall/lightning context not to use the term DMC unless there is evidence of a proper and potentially severe thunderstorm(s), rather than a non-descript rainmass with convective cells.

Now back to the weather at hand, starting to get concerned I am going to have to flush water from my pool, damn thing is up and approaching 3 inches above the normal level. We get too much more and it will over flow.

John, I have no doubt you're more schooled then me on the technicalities of what constitutes a "storm" and what doesn't, so I won't argue that with you. But, to the laymen (which I would assume the majority of these forecasts are directed at) a typical thunderstorm will at least produce one of the most commonly recognized thunderstorm characteristics (lightning, hail, strong localized winds, etc.)...of which the majority of this (even if it is convective) rainfall has not. It simply doesn't make sense to call something a thunderstorm...without the thunder.

I don't see the need to go peperring forecasts and reports with the word "thunderstorms" when by the most common definition they really haven't been a factor at all.

On a side note, we just cracked 50mm here!

[tizza]

It's really starting to intensify, the outer rain bands are getting thicker by the minute and it's really starting to pick up speed. The state radar is showing the formation very nicely, it should really start to hammer down again all over the place. The showers are getting more frequent and heavier in the last 30mins here. Temp and DP's are almost even across the board for Melbourne and everywhere is +90%RH. It's going to be interesting to see which way it tracks.

[tizza]

This heavy shower just pushed me over 50mm

[tizza]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Melbourne has 3.5 hours to beat it's October 24hr rainfall of 61.0mm, so we're currently sitting on 52mm at the moment. I hope we can get another 9.1mm by 9AM. It would be nice to break a rain record for a change.

[Alexia]

Up to 41 mm rain and still raining also windy. Heard thunder a few times around 2200-2400 hrs.Will be a bit of flooding as the bulk of rain has beeen since 2400 hrs will be able to see soon.Very mild night didn't see temp under 17c