The Australian Weather Forum

at the dew points around the state atm. Port Fairy has a dew point of 25 degC which I find hard to believe. But 23 at Geelong and 22.5 at Shepparton seem reasonable. Welcome to Darwin!

20C here, close to 100% RH.

I would guess that warm upper levels would decrease the risk of large hail. I don't think lapse rates are high today. Total-Totals values only around 45.

Absolutely torrential rain is the obvious danger along with possible squalls. Basically monsoonal style storms like they get in Darwin, i.e. not particularly severe in a technical sense but causing huge dumps of rain in quick time.

johnno wrote:27mm isn't to bad Stefan Thats 2/3 our January average

Dp's 23c at Laverton and Avalon thats Darwin material

I guess but compared to the 100mm GFS was predicting

nafets wrote:

johnno wrote:27mm isn't to bad Stefan Thats 2/3 our January average

Dp's 23c at Laverton and Avalon thats Darwin material

I guess but compared to the 100mm GFS was predicting

Not halftime yet Stefan.
And we will be kicking with a strong breeze in the last 1/4!

Theres still Tomorrow and Friday Stefan I never expected 100mm here but 50-60mm all up for the week is a safe bet.

Showers dyeing over the ranges Today as they head towards Melbourne typical in strongish Northerly Flow.. time and time again we see this even if the atmopshere is loaded with moisture to the brink.. pulsey showers always seem to die as they head towards us

Thanks to http://www.theage.com.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A 40-kilometre section of the Great Ocean Road has been closed due to rockfalls and floods caused by heavy rain in the area this morning.

A VicRoads spokeswoman said the scenic highway was closed between Lorne and Skenes Creek, with motorists urged to delay any unnecessary travel to the area.

Sniper wrote:

nafets wrote:

johnno wrote:27mm isn't to bad Stefan Thats 2/3 our January average

Dp's 23c at Laverton and Avalon thats Darwin material

I guess but compared to the 100mm GFS was predicting

Not halftime yet Stefan.
And we will be kicking with a strong breeze in the last 1/4!

Great

Sniper wrote:Thanks to http://www.theage.com.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A 40-kilometre section of the Great Ocean Road has been closed due to rockfalls and floods caused by heavy rain in the area this morning.

A VicRoads spokeswoman said the scenic highway was closed between Lorne and Skenes Creek, with motorists urged to delay any unnecessary travel to the area.

This dosent surprise me went surfing down that way yesterday and there were rock mud trees all over the place was quiet dangerous in patches! The rain has stopped and the sun is out which is good to see after many days without

Currently PELTING down big convective tropical drops.

The scud is back. All it took were a few more heavy showers. I enjoyed the 60 seconds of sun whilst it lasted.

It's like being in Sydney in easterlies today with the low grey scud overhead. I guess technically we are getting the weather they often get.

Heavy showers to my west at the moment. Fairly windy here too, getting up to 50-60 km/h gusts.

First time I've been able to get internet in a week @ supermarket in drysdale !!!
We got some very heavy falls at indented head last night & lost two gutters off the roof as a result. Currently feels like a sauna but happy to be doing shopping in air-conditioned supermarket!

Supercellimpact wrote:Currently PELTING down big convective tropical drops.

yep just had a extremely intense downpour for 5 minutes. The air just can't handle any more moisture...i feel something big is going to occur in the next 12-24hrs

Suns been out here for the last hour, geez give me back the cloud, stupidly humid. May just be the extra ingredient for something later, not expecting much here though, seems like most activity will be to my east, will wait until tommorow and Friday.

Rhino.

From 3AW on twitter

UPDATE: @DenisWalter3AW says 12 homes in town of Nattimuk have had to be evacuated. Some Horsham homes being sand-bagged.

Very heavy tropical rain atm.

floydlove wrote:Was unsure why some people were writing off GFS. Has had a pretty damn good track record atm and in these conditions it's not to be unexpected.

Only drips and drabs here and still humid as hell. Still days to come..

I would always take a percentage of what gfs predicts for where I live and melb cbd for that matter, they always massively overplay totals for this area. Yes gfs is a good model, have been great with western vic for this system and all the recent rains we have had, but not for this area and they rarely have been. I think I suggested a fifth of what they progged, in the 96 hrs since sunday 0z run weve had 22mm, gfs predicted 100-125mm.

Like Johnoo mentions hoping for 50mm for the week

Ay Wes, Giggles is already out and chasing..

Looks like the radar is exploding and Melbourne is about to be hit by a line of scattered showers and storm cells which are strengthening.

Still feels very tropical here just to the east of Melbourne, 26/20/70%. Plenty of potential for development later this afternoon.

I think that is a cell just S of Lancefield, it looks to be..

Is anyone getting any strong convective echoes?

Hmmm, the humidity just jumped from 45% to 63%, which makes the DP 23.7C and temp 31.7C. Must be an error.