Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[wolfcat]

43mm in the rain gauge at home today ( 3 mm from this morning )

[stevco123]

My personal forecast is for light rain to continue into the night, before another 5-15mm is dropped by midday tomorrow, and them it clears up giving us a few sunny breaks before a few showers develop. That low could give us a surprise though. Expecting another 20mm in melbourne s suburbs at the most.

[Lily]

Another 4.5mm here giving us 30.5mm since late afternoon/evening. Steady, light-moderate rain has settled in, heavier falls to the east of us.

[stratospear]

I don't think we'll get much more now. Another 10mm at most IMO, if that.

[nafets]

Rain easing around the Melbourne area? Will there be anymore rain? Thanks

[lightnin]

BOM are still predicting rain well into tomorrow.. so answer is yes, more is coming down from the north currently and when the low tracks further south anything could happen!

[tizza]

Nice frequent forecasts today Karl, I enjoyed reading them, it seems the storms you predicted earlier have just popped over the border into the NE near Albury about half an hour ago.

[Karl Lijnders]

Rain is on the increase statewide again as the low tracks further south. The western ranges seeing the bulk of it at the moment. Rain areas continuing for much of C and E VIC overnight with local thunderstorms in the NE trending further S and some developing in the NW overnight trending SE.

I am now heading off to bed, but Jake will do the next few updates!!

[Jake Smethurst]

Standby for another AWF weather forecast at around 11PM.

Meanwhile, the BoM have released quite a number of flood warnings this evening. Here is a quick summary of the current watches and warnings:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
Flood Summary
Issued at 10:07 pm EDT on Saturday 30 October 2010.

The following Watches/Warnings are current:

Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River at Corowa
Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra,
Dandenong And Bunyip)
Flood Watch for the Barwon, Moorabool, Leigh and Hovells Creek Catchments and
Otway Ranges
Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins
Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins
Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland (Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister and Avon
Catchments and South Gippsland Basin)
Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa,
Ovens and King Catchments)
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Campaspe River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Ovens River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the King River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Buffalo River
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Seven and Castle Creeks

See here for more details http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 863#p31863" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or here http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Jake Smethurst]

AWF Update 11:04pm

Rainfall over Central Victoria and the western ranges eased earlier this evening with the main bands affecting the eastern and northeast ranges, and regions about western Gippsland. During the past hour, rainfall has mostly ranged between 5-10 mm over the northeast and eastern ranges, with patchier falls around 1-5mm across central parts and also moving back on to the western ranges around Ballarat.

Currently areas of rain are generally increasing from the north as the low pressure system slowly intensifies and moves ever so gradually towards North Central Victoria. Most of rainfall is currently affecting the western ranges near Ballarat, and also up in the northeast of the state with heavier bands. Moderate rainfall is also starting to push back into the Central district from the north, so Melbourne should see some rain redevelop in the next hour or so. Isolated thunderstorms are also evident across the northeast of the state currently which is bringing heavier falls. There is also the possibility for isolated thunderstorms in the northwest overnight.

The low will move closer to North Central Victoria overnight and will tend to influence the rainfall orientation and cause it to come out of the northeast heading southwest. This is when rainfall is likely to become locally heavy again over the northeast ranges, through central parts and even over the western ranges and Otway regions. The main wrap around is expected tomorrow from the low as it moves offshore into central Bass Strait and causes rain areas from the southwest heading northeast. Gale force winds are likely to develop overnight near the coast, and particularly tomorrow morning across Victoria as the low enters the Bass Strait, with warnings already current for that scenario. It should be mentioned that Mt. Hotham recorded wind gusts of 139 km/h at 7pm this evening.

Flood warnings are slowly being issued for many parts of the state. If you are near a major river system in a flood watch area then please visit http://www.bom.gov.au/vic" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for the latest warnings.

Melbourne Forecast from 11PM-12:30PM

Saturday Evening: Rain increasing from the north and northeast with the chance of heavy falls later and thunder. Possible flash flooding closer to midnight. Light winds.

Sunday: Rain, locally heavy, with flash flooding and the chance of thunderstorms, tending to showers during the afternoon. Strong and gusty SW winds possibly reaching gale force shifting WNW later and easing.

Next AWF Update at 12:30am

[norfolk]

45mm out here..........wow wow wow wow.

[schitzengiggles]

You forecasters are so bloody thunder happy!

[Karl Lijnders]

Yep! Where there is a chance, we will forecast it and not be apologetic for it. Besides, the rain is amazing but I guess you have got to find something wrong with the day or it wouldn't be a normal one .

Nearly 60mm here and rain still tumbling away. If I had to trade in every storm day to get another one of these events, I would...knowing how important water is changes your priorities and we should all be rejoicing!! Go VIC!!

[I_Love_Storms]

The radar looks fairly exciting now. Pretty convective stuff which will only get more severe as we head into the early hours of the morning, it is absolutely flying through at a rate of knots as well. Could definitely be some isolated storms in amongst some of these bands. Anywhere from another 20-70mm here.

[Karl Lijnders]

Upper Low is situated near Mildura with the surface low somewhere between Bendigo and Kyabram. All moving very slowly.

The rain is moving faster due to the upper winds increasing as the low moves closer.

Rain steady here and just ticked over to 60.6mm for the system with ~54mm for this event!!! Amazing rainfall here!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Upper Low is situated near Mildura with the surface low somewhere between Bendigo and Kyabram. All moving very slowly.

The rain is moving faster due to the upper winds increasing as the low moves closer.

Rain steady here and just ticked over to 60.6mm for the system with ~54mm for this event!!! Amazing rainfall here!!

I thought the Mildura upper low may have been the case judging by the national sat loop, becoming quite a defined eye type feature up there - thanks for confirming I can't wait until these beast gets closer and hopefully we can get smashed by some extremely convective wrap around bands.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

42.5 since 3pm
48mm System
128mm MTD

[Meso]

32.6mm here. Nice total and far from a fizzer, but I think I may have become a little complacent after all the recent dumpings. Was expecting somewhere in the 50-75mm range after reading all the forecasts and whatnot, but doesn't look like we will get anywhere near that unless things really explode overnight.

Not dissapointed, but by the standards this year has already set up this way, today was just another day of good rain...nothing too memorable.

[Leasy]

Just checked the gauge to find 40.1mm - not bad at all

[Meso]

If I had to trade in every storm day to get another one of these events, I would...

That's going a bit far, Karl

If we could all learn to treat the water we have with a bit more respect we wouldn't need these big events every few months. You watch everyone become ignorant to saving water again now that we've had a good winter/spring.