The current MJO signal is pretty weak (as indicated by its recent trend inside the middle circle). The ensembled versions of various models such as EC, GFS, etc produce MJO forecast diagrams and maps - you can view some of the GFS products here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml (blue = increased cloudiness trapping in lots of outgoing longwave radiation which implies enhanced convection and an active MJO pulse). Also, for those who weren't aware already, the average effects of the MJO on SE Australia as well as the continent in general for the current season are here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graph ... urrent.gif
It's worth remembering though that models often have a hard time trying to nail the MJO accurately compared to other smaller-scale weather systems.
There's also other tropical influences that are regularly monitored because they can increase the likelihood of TC's forming. A couple of examples include Kelvin Waves which travel eastwards across the global tropics and Equatorial Rossby Waves which travel westwards. Like the MJO, they're basically big pulses or waves that propagate through the atmosphere/ocean associated with increased convection and can trigger TC's if other conditions are favourable. Strong SE wind surges pushing up into NW'ly monsoonal flow to their northeast can also impart a spin to the flow and trigger TC's.
Meanwhile, below are the Bureau's weekly tropical notes about the MJO issued last Tuesday (updated every Tue) - they're at
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml:
"A very weak MJO lingers
Over the past week, the remnants of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signature have continued propagating eastwards through the Indian Ocean. Even though the degree of uncertainty remains high, the majority of computer models surveyed by the Bureau are suggesting an MJO pulse may return to the eastern Indian Ocean within the next fortnight; however it is expected to remain weak. Over the last seven days, the enhanced convection observed over northern and eastern Australia was largely due to Ex-tropical Cyclone Yasi. Rainfall and tropical cyclone activity across northern Australia continues to remain at above-normal levels. This can be largely attributed to the strength of the current La Niña and the dominant influence it has had on north Australia’s weather during the current Wet Season. Although a weak MJO is forecast for the next couple of weeks, rainfall and tropical cyclone activity is expected to remain average to above-average across northern Australia, mostly due to the ongoing influence of La Niña."