The Australian Weather Forum

Yeah Huge let down here again the trigger and uppers up this way are STILL not strong enough to do anything with this great humid air

Was 40c here today

Was 38/13 much of the day so dried out a bit

Convection looked great today and dropped a few showers to Ne which i chased as i was so desperate dumped some very heavy showers with local flooding but no lightening but some very nice rain shfts but were VERY local and short lived clouds would explode dump there load and evaperate all in about 30 mins was unreal just to Hot and Dry today was just SO HOT today and dry sounds werid but ture

NEED tomorrow to come off it should but dont look as good as down there does for tomorrow then over the weekend looking at massive rain and Thunderstorms to my N NE E and i miss out again getting bit atm.

Just need a trigger like a SB front or deep trough looks like trough will really pick up tomorrow which is great, hoping it dont go east of us to early though chasing east is hard here no roads.

Hoping tomorrow comes off though am a tad worried locally but hoping there be something around, there should be.
but last 4 days first 2 was expecting nothing, but yesterday and even more so today there nothing great within about 150km

Nice tropical showers to my NE today which i chased they dumped there load very quickly and then be all gone was unreal easy 10-15mm dumpers and most of the heavy rain was in full sun shine the showers were no more than a km or so wide was unreal

Well not complaining agout this at all, final total for today was 40mm taking us to a round 50mm for both days.

I'm hoping for a February like 1973... Widespread falls of 200mm+ over much of Victoria for the month.

The big question tomorrow is how widespread the falls will be: Small and intense downpours (like today) OR a large general rainband where everyone gets a good drink.

Hopefully the large heavy rain band comes off, but will start out as big wet storms

Some areas will get huge falls tomorrow central areas, SE Vic, north central and Ne look good for tomorrow
Many along the rangers and inland are getting great rain, and its nice to see it falling in the inland and not over water or just the coast only,

Not sure about the NW tomorrow, SW will clear out after lunch but think trough will linger along the murray and into east gippy by tomorrow night.

INTRESTING DAY TOMORROW AM WORKING TILL 12 but free after that hoping for widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain for ALL of us

Sorry about caps cant be bothered deleting it but am writing more lol oh well

Heres to a warm sunny morning with Deep trough on the Vic SA border moving slowly E Ne

With upper trough and all that WA cloud coming in will be interesting day that could do anything

Is a Thundery rainband weak?

Trentham got 23.8mm in that storm this afternoon (rain rate of 85mm/hr)

I stormchased all the way up the Calder from the airport after dropping 3 interstate managers off and shooting through about 3.20pm - rain into 3 different cells all throwing torrential rain down ...enough so that I ended up driving in the right hand lane at 80kmh because I couldn't see the cars that were not quite pulled off the road till on top of them- (saw 2 on their roofs with people all running around with their hands waving) and another 2 that had nose-to-tailed in the downpour.....between Macedon and Woodend, then Kyneton to Elphinstone then Harcourt.....then in the middle of loading a truck, we shot through and went for a drive out through Marong to see paddocks with sheets of water running off them (the Bendigo gauge is not a fair and accurate representation of that rainfall!!). The next couple of hours was spent loading said truck and getting soaked to the skin.....spose that standing on the back of a 3 tonne truck surrounded by metal in the middle of a storm isn't that bright either.....and someone up there doesn't want Clyve ..... he missed being soaked by 2 bow waves at the same time from cars passing and a cg right behind him while getting something out of his car - photos to upload...but not right now.....but I can't wait for tomorrow......love this long, hot, dry summer we're having...

A few pics from today, have many more to go through tomorrow

Bubble Bubble behind the huge anvils/storms


These two were taken from Mt Tarrengower fire lookout towards the N/NW



This was the last shot of the day with the huge line on top of me a few minutes before it started raining, the whole sky was black to the S, W and NW



Edit: Storms starting to fire again NW

Well, time to cash in the chips, still extremely humid and much better direction today...will see massive storms turn into a thundery rain band which will go well into tomorrow, even the afternoon maybe. Looking forward to some big falls statewide...catchments yet again will do very well which will be a thorn in the side of the govt and Melb Water..but alas once the dams are full again they won't be able to hide it any longer. The ranges should see 50mm plus..and if Melbourne had of been lucky last 2 days we could have already scored the average and more and be well on the way to a record breaker..

Radio news headlinging with flash flooding and widespread storms but models downgrading somewhat for today. What a suprise.

Will wait for convection and for steering flow but if it is not heading southeast then it is not going to happen today in Melbourne.

Great report John, and some terrific advice to those wanting to get amongst it today.

Lightning is already popping up on the tracker with a cell near Bordertown. Nice SE steering on the cell which is a positive to later today.
BOM have been on the radio expecting storms from 11am and then becoming widespread.

Think we metropolitan folk are a bit on edge today after missing Laurence and the past two days of ripper storms, today must be our day...

5AM synoptic chart looks great with the trough dipping further south and more west.
Based on charts I viewed yesterday, the trough will not be crossing central areas til after 5pm. However that is subject to change.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/ ... ptic.shtml

The weatherzone synoptic is updated hourly, however unsure how accurate it is. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=0&c=satsyn

Shows the trough way further east in the 6am run LOL, I think I would trust the BOM.

Models have downgraded drastically, particularly EC which is predicting a non-event. But then again, are models trustworthy even a few hours out?

I think widespread falls around 25mm with some isolated 50mm totals today and overnight into Friday are realistic. It will be interesting to see if NW cloudband does another disappearing act to the south.

Just to give an idea of rainfall variability yesterday; Bendigo got 12mm, Maiden Gully 26mm, Sedgwick 43mm...

Not too sure why EC has downgraded today?? BOM have taken no notice and gone on the front foot with their heavy falls prediction, and I agree with them. Trajectory is perfect for us today..However once we see convection we will know for sure..

I'm trying to get a perspective of what I could see yesterday to the nnw around 1pm, Im finding it very deceiving the distance of where Im seeing storms. Some where was getting a good drenching although I didnt have my camera with me, it could have been in the templestowe area.

under a thick fog this morning which sucks really hoping for some action today after missing out over the passed day

16 mils in Horsham last night filled the tanks a lot of thunder & lightning too

Going to wait and see today, models probably won't help that much today in terms of rainfall, although the GFS 18z run may give us more of an indication. I'd expect 10-50mm here thats how variable it will be and that's always the problem when storms are forecast and embedded in a rainband. Metro areas could be in for a belting, so watch out on the roads later. Everyone will get something today and remember it's summer, anytime you get rain is a bonus at this time of year.

Rhino.

Spot on Rhino.
I'd take this type weather anytime, instead of 40c+ with 50kmh northerlies.
Activity continues in the far Western/Wimmera areas.
The absence of a radar down at Mt Gambier and the high res dopplar in Melbourne will hurt today.