Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[stratospear]

GFS just did it's usual 06Z tantrum and predicts 250mm+ for here. I don't buy it.

[Rhino]

Yep, just like last night, good old 06Z always good for a laugh.

Rhino.

[Anthony Violi]

You might not be buying it but i think you should start gearing up for a flood of the century. Its just a matter of location, at the moment even ACCESS has 250mm through most of western Vic, and even more NW of Mildura.

I think the latest run is the most likely location, or just a bit west. Im hoping it goes East and delivers 300mm through the catchments.

I havent seen sustained progs of this magnitude in many many years. These sorts of set ups happen rarely, and it may even be underestimating as the moisture from SE QLD is further south than predicted. Antartica last week had temps 15 degrees below normal...what do you think thats going to do when it mixes with 24 degree dewpoint airmass and 30 degrees?

I would be cautious, and ready at this stage. It may bomb right on us later in the week.

[droughtbreaker]

GFS has no control when it comes to tropical outbreaks over the SE. We have already seen, at least a few times this year, similar totals progged over the state. I have certainly seen a weekly model prog for 200mm+ over my area at least once this year. The most I have actually seen in a week for the past 12 months is around 115mm.

I would say 50-100mm at this stage for most of the state with isolated higher totals over the NE ranges and parts of the western district, but certainly not widespread 75-250mm like GFS is saying right now.

[stratospear]

Antarctica might be freezing its butt off, but whether this cold air arcs over the remarkably warmer than normal SSTs in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is the question. If yes, that's certainly a recipe for "bombing" Feb 2005 style. Anyway, I won't be surprised to get around 100mm in the coming week. However, 250mm in a week is well outside anything experienced here in the past 160 years!

[Anthony Violi]

If you have been following the weather worldwide lately, you might realise that conventional weather is dead. The ball game has shifted, cold air is sneaking in unanalysed all year last year resulting in much more rainfall than predicted.

The upper low over QLD is dragging moisture from PNG and will be advected south Monday and Tuesday...given the progs i can see the chance that history could be happening here. I could be wrong, but somewhere within our state is going to see unprecedented rainfall given this set up coming off.

No one thought it would be the coldest winter in 351 years for the UK either. Ocean Heat content has reduced at such an alarming rate even some sceptics are starting to worry about what is coming..

[Rhino]

Yeah looking back at my post earlier I'm thinking perhaps it's teasing trouble, those totals might be in la la land in a normal year by where not in one at the moment are we and as you rightly say AV something will happen bigtime soon. But I bloody hope we don't get that.

Rhino.

[Blackee]

apf18_init-2011010812z_fcst-z_APF_vic.png (61.72 KiB) Viewed 5008 times

[Rhino]

Those storms/ rain areas are'nt moving anywhere soon by the looks so will be some damn nice totals if your under it all, and unexpected I'd say aswell. Geez todays totals on top of what will come this week= OUCH. Anyway looks like things may develop over the mallee and W nth country going by radar so things may be looking up this arvo. Expect GFS to move those 200mm+ totals a little further west in next run, around west central areas, just a feeling.

Rhino.

[Didjman]

Still distant rumbles here. How unstable it must be!!! Temp here 16.6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Peter

[Anthony Violi]

Still think it looks great for some widespread big totals, just a matter of where that location is. Could well be a western Vic peak to this event but depends on the strength of the cradle. EC pushes everything South quickly where as the other models hold the cradle and give us some very good totals. EC also has very cold air following this system with another cut off and very big SW fetch to follow that.

So some real potential for a very wet January, one of the wettest in a while.

BTW the cloud band that has stalled is already starting to edge westward...Melbourne could be in with a chance of getting some thundery showers today.

[Rhino]

Birchip must be getting a few bangs and flashes going by tracker, just been developing over them, and still developing.

Rhino.

[Rhino]

Latest GFS run up's the totals again, up to 275mm around west central and west nth country areas so at this stage it is certainly is bullseyeing the largest falls around the middle areas of vic in latest runs but 75-100mm looks the norm. Of course things will move around slightly but seems to be liking this general area.

p.s Was just looking at the latest upper air chart for 5pm tonight, is that a upper convergence running through melb running NW and what effect will that have if any?
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast? ... #stormcast

Rhino.

[Petros]

Models now agree that a cut-off low will form on Vic/SA border mid week before disapating away southwards - looks like a wet Wed night/Thurs for most in W and Central Vic! GFS:



W Vic will soon resemble a jungle rather than a sandy desert.

[Petros]

A steady 1020 hPa, here calm and overcast, a few drops of rain have made it to the ground but not enough to wet the concrete.

Strormcast for 5pm today dosent provide much CAPE or instability so would be surprised to see an arvo storm near Melbourne.

[Supercellimpact]

What a weird radar, get a up and a look for the first time today and convection firing up at 10.00am !! Also is seems to be moving in a easterly fashion.

[rikjpool]

well i'll stay down in St Leonards for ya'll north of the divide. Lol.Enjoy the rain and thunder guys. Im gonna guess it looks messy up there, and prob not to many visable cg's. But i hope im wrong for all ya'll sakes.

[Supercellimpact]

Can hear thunder now to the east and looking very ominous.

[schitzengiggles]

well i'll stay down in St Leonards for ya'll north of the divide.

Expect widespread tornados, any kind of SC you like, and cgs a plenty, followed by a crawler show.

We just need to make sure Towering Updraft is chained to a chair inside his house also, and we're guaranteed an outstanding afternoon's entertainment.

[jmw2207]

Belting down here atm. Nice burst