Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

[StratoBendigo]

BOM are pretty bullish about big rains across much of Western Vic tomorrow morning in its Warnings. GFS still not interested.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV20032.html

For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:36 pm Thursday, 19 January 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A deepening low pressure trough over South Australia will approach western Victoria tonight bringing very humid conditions southeastwards. As the trough moves rapidly eastwards across Victoria on Friday, a low pressure centre will develop along the trough. The low move away to the southeast early Friday morning.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the Mallee, Wimmera and the South West Forecast Districts during early Friday morning (midnight to 3am) before extending to the Northern Country, North Central and Central Forecast districts by around 3am to 6am Friday. The heavy rain may extend to eastern districts later in the morning.

Six hour totals of around 10mm to 40mm are likely with isolated higher falls of 40mm to 60mm possible. There is the risk of isolated thunderstorms over the northwest of the State during this time.

Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

[stevco123]

Well wouldn't it be nice to get 50mm on top of last week's 15. That would be it for the average I would say.

[Wilko]

Big upgrade
Over time it's the Bass Strait lows that best deliver
Can't wait to sound of heavy rain in the early hours

[JasmineStorm]

My 2 cents worth on the 5pm sat pic.....

[Wilko]

Adelaide radar certainly impressive
Hope it comes this way

[StratoBendigo]

Adelaide radar certainly impressive
Hope it comes this way

Some decent totals on the Eyre Peninsula. Cleve has had 25mm, but what really stands out is the current dewpoint temp there of 25c!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

That's one colourful radar over the South..
I'll have a little drink for my garden, nothing of that extreme please..
and remember it's a camping week..

[hillybilly]

Glorious day here today. Sunny, light winds and 22C.

Tomorrow looks like being almost the opposite. Windy, wet and becoming cold

Thinking about 30mm here tomorrow, with good falls for most. Will be very welcome as the west and central areas are starting to get very dry after a hot and largely rain free couple of weeks.

SA is wild ATM. Wind gusts with those storms locally topping 110km/hr with heavy falls.

[JasmineStorm]

Those sparks are a lot further south than the models predicted. Approaching Mt Gambier soon....hope someone remembers to switch on the storm shield on the SW border

[JasmineStorm]

Down to 1000 hPa here now, I see most of the western areas in the 990's...the low is deepening nicely.

[Sean]

BOM have 'heavy rain easing'

wasn't expecting any tbh, but now I'm hoping the SE won't miss out.

[nafets]

Rain though here now, sky lighting up!!!

[StratoBendigo]

I think half of Bendigo has just been woken up with this fast arriving storm outside atm. Lightning, wind, heavy rain.... Now easing.

[Dane]

Seems to be moving through pretty quickly, might limit totals.

[Didjman]

Glad I woke up in time(0130):) Got a blinder of a cg on cam and vid! Will post later today.
Peter

[Macedonian]

Lovely rain. Just as it was about to turn brown here. Just in the nick of time.

[Onetahuti]

Main rain band now cleared to the east with the possibility of some follow-up showers, checking the Nylex gauge I have had 22.9 mm so far. Tanks all full, garden well watered and forecast for Tuesday for some further rain is looking good.

[JasmineStorm]

13.6 mm so far here, nice gust front type storms during the night. Plenty of sparks. Some nice falls down south. Trough line is still west of here by 100km at the moment, so might get a another little zap or drop before it moves through.

[hillybilly]

Must have been tired last night as I somehow missed an inch of rain My initial thought was that perhaps the resident spider had been tap dancing, but the manual gauge has the same Anyone spot any thunder around the eastern burbs?

Change inbound with storms trying to build. Shame it isn't coming through at 3pm.

Thinking we could well get close to 50mm from here. Progs looks very showery for the rest of today out here.

Btw good pick by EC and ACCESS, while GFS missed it (persisting with a hole over Melbourne).

[Macedonian]

Pouring again. V tropical type of rain.