Victoria: Warm then a strong front - December 7 to 10 2016

[Onetahuti]

10.5 mm till now, hopefully some more overnight or in the morning, tank should be then full.

[hillybilly]

Just got one of the yellow cells. Thumping shower with nearly 2mm in about 2 minutes. Torrential stuff.

Showers to our south getting organised into squall lines currently.

[Macedonian]

42mm for December so far

[hillybilly]

5mm from thats squall line. Torrential stuff with flecks of hail. Looking like a pretty classical bay stream setting up now. Hoping we can get a big total

[Geoff]

Played "catch up" - caught up - overtook - racing ahead.
27mm and rising fast with the bay effect in full swing.

[Macedonian]

3.7C here this morning. Back to full winter wardrobe for work

[hillybilly]

37mm in the manual gauge for the event MTD is now 42mm which puts us more or less on target for our average if it continues. Hard to believe some suburbs have only had a couple of mms with this system.

Wrapped to get this rain. It puts the fire season back by a couple of weeks and will keep things green to Christmas. Lots of small hail etc.

Bit of snow in the alps with a couple of cms at Lake Mountain. Hard to believe next Tuesday will be around 35C in Melbourne (with a late rain/storm) change.... Time for the new thread

[JasmineStorm]

27.6mm for the thread.....not much as expected after the first batch yesterday. 1027mm for the year which is the wettest since 2010.

The Dandenong ranges are again the fast finishes....think you have them beat and they get you with the southerly and now the bay effect

[stevco123]

A little surprised to see 20mm for this little event here. Very hit and miss by the looks of the observations.

[Geoff]

Starting to look like next Wednesday's follow up could be a biggie with 30mm-60mm widely over central Vic. Also looking more thundery in the run up to Christmas too.

[Gordon]

Played "catch up" - caught up - overtook - racing ahead.
27mm and rising fast with the bay effect in full swing.

Nice work Geoff - good to see a smile on your face this morning. You were being ripped off yesterday!

Another 6mm here to 9 am so 21mm for the event - happy with that. Nice to know the models can still underestimate substantially (even at short range). And yes, Tuesday night > looking more significant.

[Onetahuti]

Up to 15 mm for me. Maybe a sprinkle or two still to come but happy with what has fallen, tank is overflowing!

[JasmineStorm]

Buckle up and put on the helmet for the next thread. It's the most volatile I've seen the models for a while.... sometimes you can't believe the differences between the runs......but this morning they are starting to line up more. Access's latest for Wednesday definitely widened the eyes. Shall I create a new thread?

[Gordon]

Definitely worthy of a new thread; even at the lower end the next system is good for several mm for most & cooler temps.

[stevco123]

Talking about cooler temps, today reminds me of July. Currently 12.6 and a maximum of only 13.2 so far!

[JasmineStorm]

ok....I'll put in a new thread.

Certainly feels like winter today.

@Stevco - Have been thinking about your comment on how Melbourne has been missing the big storms over the past few years. For what its worth, I think its a bit of everything but big El Nino's and coming out of them tend to make it really hit and miss in Victoria. The greater Melbourne area has just not been in the right spot. A strong monsoon trough in January, with increased water temps around the country I think will change all of that and Melbourne will soon get peppered by a series super cell days and maybe a couple F1 twisters thrown in there, if a surge of cold air comes up to greet a NE flow

[Gordon]

Sorry JS, just saw this. In the meantime, I got all excitable and started a new thread myself - feel free to modify or replace.

[hillybilly]

Reckon we had a bit of graupel here with the last big shower about 9am. Had the classic "rice on the roof" sound. Temperature was about 6C here at the time.

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@Stevco - Have been thinking about your comment on how Melbourne has been missing the big storms over the past few years. For what its worth, I think its a bit of everything but big El Nino's and coming out of them tend to make it really hit and miss in Victoria. The greater Melbourne area has just not been in the right spot. A strong monsoon trough in January, with increased water temps around the country I think will change all of that and Melbourne will soon get peppered by a series super cell days and maybe a couple F1 twisters thrown in there, if a surge of cold air comes up to greet a NE flow

Thinking you're onto something with the El Niño. Really robbed of us spring storms last year. This year, we've also had a near record negative SAM (which is really odd as La Niña usually gives positive SAM). This means we've stayed in westerly systems and missed the more typically easterly trough set up. Either way, has been a lean couple of years for storms, but oddly quite good for rainfall overall. Last year wasn't nearly as bad as the 1997 or 1982 El Niño, and this year has been pretty good rainwise, with most of Vic headed for average or a bit better.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... ar&area=vc

[JasmineStorm]

Sorry JS, just saw this. In the meantime, I got all excitable and started a new thread myself - feel free to modify or replace.

No worries Gordon, I'll jump on board your thread

@HB - yep. I think we are on the same wave length on the lack of storms topic.

[hillybilly]

1.8mm more here today so finish on about 40mm. Very happy with that.

A cool day... with a max of just 11.4C. Going to be a chilly night ahead.