Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[Hawker]

We just had a rumble here, high based stuff at this stage. It looks as though the
radar is over reading it. Not much rain falling from it. But it is a start
and it might keep going.
Cheers Chris

[Gordon]

Yes watching the near stationary cell near Castlemaine on the radar Hawker; also a few others nearby and a more significant band near Stawell. As Geoff suggests, it does looks as if you're lucky enough to be under one of these and it gets going, totals could mount up.

Weird morning here, 13 C, almost foggy with very low cloud drifting over the hills.

[nafets]

Gfs going for 5-10mm here and most of northern victoria, normally does well with these set ups so heres hoping! Low sheer as has been mentioned for today should mean some good totals when they pop up

[Hawker]

The sky is filling in quick and looking darker to the south west.
It could do anything today, or nothing at all.
Chris

edit drops are getting heavier, and its getting darker.

[Skywalker]

Quite humid out there this morning. Just returned from the morning walk with the dog and it certainly felt quite sticky.

Anything could happen today.

[hillybilly]

Not a drop here, calm and misty and dry as a bone!
You could not even tell that we had 38mm a week ago.

Same here. We're getting close to the conditions we had in 2002/03 at this time. Starting to see the tree dropping leaves quickly now, so big gums are starting to feel the stress, and a couple of medium size trees have died. December was hotter than a hot January here, and we've seen summer like temps since October without much of a break. Definitely had drier years, but the warmth has been the real feature.

Looks unstable out, but the SE'ly is chocking the convection. We are slowly seeing the steering go more northerly so are a better chance today.

Got a visual on the storm near Warburton - quite small but looked like a real dumper.

[Gordon]

Low cloud has cleared here and some nice puffy clouds are starting to appear in their place. Fingers crossed...

[StratoBendigo]

Just started to rain lightly here under a cell. Very high cloud bases...

Let's see if it will fill in and provide some nice dumping rain.

[Supercellimpact]

Currently nailed by a massive hail storm, everything is white, 5-10 piece size hail stones.

[hillybilly]

Supercell, hoping no damage but lots of precip. These storms are seriously slow to move.

Getting lumpy around here. Got one try hard cell just to our east. Might make it, or not

[StratoBendigo]

Currently nailed by a massive hail storm, everything is white, 5-10 piece size hail stones.

Lucky you. Ground isn't even wet in Flora Hill - just seem to be sitting in between two cells

[Supercellimpact]

There's a few photos on Victorian storm chasers Facebook if anyone wants a look. Plenty of rain, haven't gone out to check gauge yet. Glad the hail wasn't big enough to cause damage.

Edit- 18mm in the backyard gauge so far.

[Didjman]

rumbles in that complex just nth of here.
Peter

[Didjman]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the Northern Country and parts of the Central, Mallee, North Central, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 1:27 pm Sunday, 3 January 2016.
Severe thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Wodonga and Wangaratta.
The State Emergency Service advises that rainfall run-off into waterways in recent fire affected areas may contain debris such as soil, ash, trees and rocks. People in fire affected areas should also be alert to the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:30 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Plan Image

[StratoBendigo]

Round Two out West looks pretty beastly. Green tinge and all. Radar indicates that might go around us as well unless it does a right turn.

Round one storm has decided to remain stationary about 10km to our East. Has barely moved in past hour. Storm out West seems to be weakening. So frustrating!!!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Dead Fox at one of my mowing jobs, this weather cleans things up pretty quickly,
Today a dead possum in the back yard, so hot and dry its nearly flat and I've only just noticed it.
Very warm working in the sun, more comfortable in the shade with a cold beer,
Tree on car noticed in Boronia today and lots of bark litter around on Stewart street,
WZ showed gusts of 61klm.
Ready for some moisture after mulching dust for a few Hours

[stevco123]

Guy feeling says the current storm scenario will be repeated for the next 3 days. Meaning Melbourne metro misses out

[StratoBendigo]

After being encircled by storms for past 3 hours, we're finally getting some rain (albeit not much). Cloud base is still very high and it's blue skies out West now. Reminds me a bit of the storms we got in late-Feb 2010.

2mm today. We really missed out badly.

Friends at Sedgwick (18 km South of here) got absolutely obliterated - the dam on their property went from near empty to overflowing this afternoon Localised flooding causing problems there.

[StratoBendigo]

Bureau still reckons we could get more storms this evening. Radar says no but there's some pretty warm air out West. Cold now (18 degC).

Keeping an eye on that line of storms in North West Vic.

[droughtbreaker]

South easterly has ruined it anywhere on and south of the ranges. Very stable and cool airstream and not even all that humid. Storms rumbling away for ages just to the north of here but barely one drop coming from it (yet 17mm at Lancefield.)

Our only chance here and further south is if somehow the SE dies down and the airstream tends more easterly. Models and forecast don't want a bar of it though.