Interesting one, activity might be a little more widespread today than initially thought. Here is the thunderstorm discussion for today:
Discussion for Friday:
Issued at: 11:16 AM Friday 23rd December.
Morning update. Conditions are still expected to be quite unstable across the majority of the state for today. Most variables are looking generally good for thunderstorm development through most areas. A trough is expected to be within the region, which will cause fairly widespread instability, particularly about the ranges, with Lifted Index values predicted to reach -4 in some locations. Moisture is expected to have also increased across the majority of the state compared to Thursday; this can be seen on the latest observations which are indicating surface Dew Points into the mid to high teens across most of Victoria. Upper temperatures are expected to be cold enough to support development today as well, particularly for southern regions of the state. Isolated thunderstorms are possible anywhere across the state today, except in the far west where whilst moisture levels look okay, instability is not as great as in other areas of the state. The greatest risk area for thunderstorm development is expected to be over the ranges where extra forcing is available. Shear also looks favourable for development across most of the state, however it appears that the speed of thunderstorms will not be overly fast. Therefore in regards to severe phenomena, flash flooding is the biggest threat in thunderstorms thanks to the high moisture content in the atmosphere for today, followed by large hailstones thanks to the colder uppers, and then damaging winds which are only possible due to slack shear. Seabreezes along the coast today could either enhance development or minimise it, a seabreeze convergence line is a possibility in the south of the risk area today, but due to the nature and complexity of today, a seabreeze could also wash out any convection near the coast. In the west, there is a risk for much more drier thunderstorm activity compared to than in the east, although this is not certain. Movement of thunderstorms at this stage is most likely to be towards the east. There will be no out of routine update today.
Next Update is due by 9:45 PM Friday 23rd December.
You can see the chart here,
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... ecast.html or below at the bottom of the page.
So might be a more interesting one than originally thought for today. As for Saturday looks similar with action statewide. On Christmas Day, I have actually noticed the latest couple of GFS runs hold the trough back a few hours than originally anticipated, which means that showers/storms may in fact have to be reintroduced to the Southwest forecast district. Otherwise, looks very unstable with showers/storms on Christmas Day, potentially some nasty ones too with flash flooding a 100% probability.
As for here at home right now, it's 25 degrees with a DP of 20!!! Nearby AWS also showing high teen DP's and warm temperatures. But it feels so hot out there!!
