Victoria: Rain event - 16th-20th Dec 2011

[Rivergirl]

And you can hear Jake's audio forecasts on the AWF here

http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/vi ... efing.html

Great work Jake

[crikey]

May l ask why the AWF audio and forecast links are on the bottom of the page ? with the smallest font size. It is hard to find and doesn't look important to the viewer. Why not put those links at the top of the Index page where the Stormchasers links are and put the stormchasers links at the bottom of the page
How about a you tube presentation done with web cam and audio. Its all the rage on weather news WWW. Embed the youtube broadcast onto front page some how. I find the links you are advertising and encouraging members to use are put in a very inconspicuous place. End of page and no visual definition?
Hey then we get to see our forecasters faces
Will they be wearing mini skirts, have blond hair and wiggle and be incredibly good looking?
Actually l would prefer the burka look. Something controversial
Actually , what about forecasting while on a storm chase
Oh..The mind boggles at the possibilities..

Here is the BOM forecast for rain for Sunday and Monday.

I am looking forward to see how this changes on Fridays update, as the final position of the low is identified.
Livinia on Melbourne weather news, still going for best falls in the wimmera and she added on the mallee tonight.
How come they so confident of lows position when models aren't?

[Rivergirl]

We are working on it crikey. Still a lot to do experimenting before the website is set up. Like everyone Christmas is looming fast and lots to do in our lives. In the New Year we will have more time to fine tune everything. I decided to put the link for the time being down the bottom above the link for the Thunderstorm Chart. This is not permanent. I just need some time to tweak it and will do so after Christmas when things are not so chaotic for me.

[stratospear]

Most of the forecast models are converging. Perhaps 15-20mm here in the coming days. Surface moisture is really non-existent here now with my lawn looking decidedly dry and yellow. That said, the last week or so has been very good for the grain harvest.

[rikjpool]

There is a bit of instability around this morning at 9am....

[Mosaic]

Not one of your classic photo album shots Ricky Latest GFS has sure cranked up the totals, EC not that interested, though Japan is trending up and access has always been enthused.

[stratospear]

GFS throws a 100mm curve ball into the mix... I don't believe it's realistic, but then again perhaps 50mm isn't out of the question.

[rikjpool]

Sorry its not up to par Mosaic. Was taken on way to work on the iPhone with the cover... hence the black blob....

however if this afternoon produces I promise some more "acceptable" photographs...

[Mosaic]

Haha Ricky, it reminded me of my mothers photography, she always manages to somehow take a partial shot of her finger almost always:) .... 25 deg C , crickets producing decent noise...sound of summer...still been mighty mild this year. Have the feeling that cells will pop up in your area later today.

[aussiestormfreak]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
East Gippsland,
North Central,
North East and
West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.


Issued at 1:47 pm Friday, 16 December 2011.


Locally severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bright, Mt Baw Baw, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller and Omeo.


The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances


The next warning is due to be issued by 4:50 pm.


Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


Good to see showers and thunderstorms along the ranges today... took a few pics of the cells around the Woods Point area about 90km to the northeast

[stratospear]

00Z run on GFS now has two distinct systems for Vic in the coming week: A strong NEly with rain concentrated in the North of the state on Sunday, and then a deep trough on Friday next week forming out of an inland low with rain mainly falling along the ranges and in the South.

I suspect 20-25mm on Sunday, and then anything is possible in 7 days time.

[typhoon29]

Warm, sticky and becoming unstable today here, Cu is bubbling nicely. Getting progressively larger. Should be some thundery showers in the district by nightfall.

[Meso]

Sunday is lookin good for a chase up around Swan Hill way I reckon. Cloud may be a problem tho.

[greensyboy]

Lightning active cell just NNE of Echuca, doesn't look too bad on Yarrawonga radar. Also looks like a wind change coming through up there on the doppler.

[Meso]

And you can hear Jake's audio forecasts on the AWF here

http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/vi ... efing.html

Great work Jake

Anyone else think Jake has a perfect voice for race calling?

Dunno why, but I immediatly thought I was listening to a horse race when he started talking lol

He is a natural tho, wont be long til we see/hear him somewhere a bit more prominent.

Good work, Jakey!

[Rivergirl]

I thought the same thing Meso Yep you heard Jake first on the AWF

[rikjpool]

Ive got a nice view of that echuca cell here..... looks quite nice!

[crikey]

The wind forecast map update hasn't changed things much , except has brought forward the timing of the wind change.
It believes wind change will be on SA/VIC border at 10am on Sunday morning and at Melbourne longitude by 10pm. Taking 12 hrs to travel that far. That may explain why some models hinting at those higher rain totals.for the west and central quadrant Re:slow moving
The wind models shows the central position of the low will not pass through Victorian on land but remain south at sea.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
THe signature 'arch' jetstream pattern ( Upper 300mb trough)is clearly there near SA atm and will pass VIC to enhance some rain as it passes . In fact it is in in a similar position and shape to the last event.

According to wind map, looks to be a good well defined front line change in the western quadrant of the state ijn particular , so expecting a strong line of embedded slow moving storms on the west on Sunday morning, taking all day to reach Melbourne Longitude.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The wind map also indicating some strong N/east winds for Melbourne and especially the bay ahead of the wind change around 4pm Sunday arvo
The trough passes the eastern quadrant of the state from Sunday night and taking all day Monday to pass through taking 24hrs

As the center of the low will be to the south/ s/west in the bass strait,l like southern areas for best rain . Looks everyone will get something byb the extent of the very long front line extending into NSW.
and because the trough stays longer in the eastern quadrant of the state 12 hrs more than the west of the state, l like Eastern quadrant VIC for higher rain otals.

This system is different from the last event in particular its slow passage over Vic

I am just having difficulty agreeing with the best totals expected in the N/west.VIC and wimmera atm.
Oh dear! Looks like possibly one of those learning experiences this weekend.

[Rhino]

Still looking good for 20-30mm for most I'd say but will be some areas get up to 50-60mm. Looking at 30-40mm locally here IMO but get under some decent storms and watch the totals mount up. EC giving me 30mm for sunday and add a bit of convective activity and could add another 10-15mm so would be a solid fall if that occurs.

Rhino.

[rikjpool]

Echuca cell 20min ago from my front door....