Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[I_Love_Storms]

Hmm looking pretty significant. GFS has upgraded again. Awaiting updated EC. This event doesn't have the same potential as the last one IMO due to lower moisture levels, however a significant diurnal range (between the levels of the atmosphere ie fairly cold mid and upper levels) associated with a fairly strong upper feature could create some pretty severe storms and isolated huge totals. At the very least though, at this stage a significant rain band is likely to affect the state late this week dropping between 25-150mm (higher totals around the ranges). Melbourne and most of Central at this point looks good for another 25-50mm.

[johnno]

EC also playing with the idea as well of cutting of a weak upper low/colder air in the uppers in a surface Easterly dip over us in 7 to 8 days time has been on and off with this idea for 2-3 days now

[johnno]

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[Petros]

Watching GFS predicting a GOC cyclone to form this weekend - not supported by other models - for several days now. Just noticed CMC agreeing, with the remants to head due S later on. Something to watch anyhow.

[daviescr]

And BOM have got some activity on their forecast rainfall section
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Anyone know which model(s) they use for Forecast Rainfall? looks quite similar to Canadian model.

[Ken]

And BOM have got some activity on their forecast rainfall section
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Anyone know which model(s) they use for Forecast Rainfall? looks quite similar to Canadian model.

Those maps use a combination of most of the main models i.e. ACCESS, EC, UK, JMA, GFS, CMC and DWD (from Germany's national met agency). This type of system has been found to outperform any single model by itself most of the time. Just remember that the daily forecast rainfall maps are for 10pm to 10pm AEST (or 11pm-11pm AEDST) and use the newer runs of some models compared to forecasts from the OCF.

[daviescr]

Thanks Ken

[norfolk]

If I am reading GFS correctly, looks like a cyclone may decide to form and hit the Whitsundays area. And then this will make its way to Victoria as a surface low and bringing some very heavy rainfall 100+mm to an already saturated state!

I hope this is wrong...really wrong!!!

[daviescr]

You are reading it right Norfolk - although only yesterday it had a major system in the GOC, now it's completely gone - that far out I always see it as a worst case scenario, and bout 0.0001% chance of actually happening - I seriously hope I am right

Either way, there is clearly a heap of moisture still willing to wing it's way down to us, so I wonder if there is some substance.

On another system, a few of the models are showing a fairly substantial system of northern WA, tracking south along the coast - question: I presume if this makes it all the way south like the fizzer that barely touched Perth the other week (see - already forgotten it's name!) - I assume this will also feed in a heap of moisture onto the westerlies and potentially affect SEA? hmmmm

[norfolk]

Was that not Bianca? lol

Also I think GFS have changed this system again and now making it run down the east coast as an east coast low. Imagine if it is still a cyclone and effecting Sydney! Talk about the news coverage then!!!

And that WA one will probably do the same as Bianca, be all big and all and then just fizzle out. But u never know.

[Petros]

Yeah, GFS has dropped the GOC cyclone scenario, but CMC is still right on it.

[edit] - over the next 7 days, I can honestly say that I've never seen such variance between Access/EC/GFC/CMC before.

With the only consensus being Vic with either ENE or humid NE'ly over the next 5-7 days. And not much rain. Other Vic formum posters are progging a stormy week next week so hope that comes off, cant see how personally with my limited weather know-how.

[johnno]

When the models are so much at odds like they are at the moment (even for them there all over the place more than normal) for a week out then its just best to wait until 3-4 days out then we will have a clearer picture

[Jake Smethurst]

Looking quite thundery across most of the state during next week Petros. Next few days a thread will be up for that mate.

Longer term, plenty of moisture to play with for the next several weeks. Models all over the place with TC's, so it's worth to just keep in mind that things will chop and change quite a lot.

[damiantheomen]

Norweigen EC going for 32mm next saturday and it picked the 4th a week out but then changed - chances?????

[Supercellimpact]

EC has 51mm for here between Thursday and Saturday.. That would be a nice top up.

[Petros]

One significant bit of consensus in the current run is for a cyclone to form off W WA and sag overland heading SSE into WA interior from Pt Hedland late next week.

Moisture for Vic if it comes off (cant get my head around this, nothing in any model yest, today all agree! - go figure).

[Anthony Violi]

Big week coming up with widespread storms and rain throughout the south east, heavy falls again owint to the moisture laying right across OZ atm...

One thing i have noted already is the big shift in the models and bringing up the cold air westerly belt very early. This could be a disaster as a cyclone hook up would put half the country under water and make previous events look like isolated drizzle patches. I have no doubt thats where our record 300 - 400mm events back many decades ago came from, so its defintiely something to watch for. Im astounded ACCESS for one has a cyclone progged over WA then an enormous cold surge from Antarctica, if its already seeing it then god help us.

[Petros]

AV, what do you mean by ......"One thing i have noted already is the big shift in the models and bringing up the cold air westerly belt very early"?

Are you looking at a long term model?

Definitely agree that a cold air outbreak with this seasons humidity would be huge if the timing got right, just cant see anything comming? Maybe more likely March/April as the cyclone season looks a Monty to persist late into Autumn as per previous El Ninas.

[norfolk]

I am going to say it first here. Wettest year on record for the state. So more misery to a lot of people.

[Petros]

I am going to say it first here. Wettest year on record for the state. So more misery to a lot of people.

Tough times ahead Norfolk! - the year being Jan - Dec 2011? Looking on the bright side, I guess the world can feed itself when its wet.