Vic: Epic low pressure sequence over SE AUS - Sept 28 - Oct 4 2016

[Hawker]

Moderate frost on the ground this morning, I think that
will slow the grass down for a bit. But after that I reckon
you will be able to watch it growing,
Yes whatever happens bring on the warmth, its overdue.

[stevco123]

50.4mm since Sunday night. You can literally see water building in the grass with every millimetre that falls.

[StratoBendigo]

Even the London Plane trees are confused with the cold and wintry weather. Very little or non-existent foliage at present.

Feels like July this morning.

[Horts]

Ok ready for some warmer weather now, it's October

Starc contrast to last year, for memory we were just about to head into 7 days of 30+.

As a heat lover, I have a feeling this summer could be one to forget.

[occluded]

Was a bit blowy yesterday afternoon, although only for about five minutes or so at home. Another fourteen calls within Manningham for trees down yesterday afternoon/evening kept things busy, including one tree that crashed straight into an upstairs bedroom

Unbelievably cold and wet for this time of year - hard to believe this time last year we were dealing with fires in Lancefield.

Was over in SA over the weekend, area around Gawler River was very wet, lots of water over the road and sandbags everywhere.

[StratoBendigo]

Meanwhile, at Falls Creek they hit a peak depth for the year today of 129 cm:

[Supercellimpact]

Meanwhile, at Falls Creek they hit a peak depth for the year today of 129 cm:

It's a pity all the resorts have closed up for the season in terms of skiing etc. Would be epic for snow play though.

[stevco123]

And this from near Knox shopping centre (wantirna south)

[Hawker]

Strato posted this earlier
Meanwhile, at Falls Creek they hit a peak depth for the year today of 129 cm: https://www.facebook.com/FallsCreekAlpi ... t/photos/a.

Could end up melting fairly quick, I wonder how much that would add to the flooding

[stevco123]

Going for 26 now for tomorrow in Melbourne.

If you were from overseas and din't know the cliamte here, and see today's cool weather, you would think they meant 16!

[Sean]

Going for 26 now for tomorrow in Melbourne.

If you were from overseas and din't know the cliamte here, and see today's cool weather, you would think they meant 16!

Praise the Lord.

The cold can go back to where it came from. It's a burden on the community. Forcing me to wear stuff I don't want to

[JasmineStorm]

Nervous times in Northern Vic tonight and the next few days on the Murray. I see on BoM, the ovens just peaking at Wang, hope the levy is high enough.

Although way too early to call, I'm keeping an eye on a major inland low developing in SA/Vic on the CFS model on Oct 24 to 27 that could get a tropical feed.

Abroad - Hurricane Matthew is a monster and all models now show a direct hit on Florida. Interesting a second system has formed in the Alantic and has just been named Storm Nicole.

[stevco123]

2mm so far from this little drizzle-fest going on at the moment down here

[Gordon]

Just checked & we've had 225 mm (9 inches in the old money) in 5 weeks. By contrast, I see Melbourne (Olympic Park) has had 105 mm for the same period. I know that's only one metropolitan station, but it goes some way towards explaining the discrepancy between those wanting more rain, and those who've had enough .

BOM's September Vic rainfall deciles chart illustrates this pretty well:


and so far October would look similar:


Amazing little Melbourne-centric rain shadow.

[hillybilly]

Got a surprise short burst of rain last night on the backend of that little front. 2.4mm added to the total. That's it for the event.

Warm day today with plenty of sun which should be good for those garden and crops.

Pretty interesting to see the differences in views about how the years tracking Gordon. Basically, most of the north is doing pretty well (some places too well). In the south things are pretty close to average, maybe a touch above or below. We've just had a one in 50 year strong IOD event so you'd hope to see a lot of blue. Against that we started with an El Nino. The impact can be seen in dams - Melbourne's are pretty similar to last year, while those in the north have got a good boost.

As for temperatures, people have lost touch with what is normal (and confuse cloudy weather with cold weather). September for Vic was a bit above average, and YTD is running well above average.

[Gordon]

For our area, I think the issue wasn't so much average temperature for September (we were only a bit below) but the fact there was so little sun and so many rain days - always makes it 'feel' cold.

Also, we haven't had a 20 C day yet; not even close and most years we would have by now. That break in the cold hasn't really happened - although it should finally make it today with a bit of luck .

In terms of rainfall, this is our second wettest year to this date during my 20 years of records, beaten only by 2011. All the more remarkable for having such a dry start (2011 'cheated' by having almost 400 mm in Jan/Feb!) Certainly our wettest winter/early spring.

PS: I think the most striking feature of the last few months will be surface water/ run-off (except for the south central/ south-east dry spot). For example, the Grampians storages have just passed the 75th percentile for inflows, despite a terribly hot & dry start to the year http://www.gwmwater.org.au/cumulative-inflows. Expect MDBA figures for northern Vic for winter/spring will be similarly exceptional.

[Gordon]

One other interesting wintry fact: you have to go back 20 years to find this much snow this late at Snowy Hydro's official measuring course at Spencers Creek: http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/waterenvir ... alculator/