Victoria: Thundery Weather. February 7th-12th 2010

[typhoon29]

all over for here now. The last storm rapidly decayed. Tomorrow it all happens again!

[Karl Lijnders]

That has to be the greatest bit of journalism I have seen in sometime. It has brought significant joy to my heart.. Thank you Wez!!

BTW temp really struggling to get down here. 25/19!!!

[Dc449]

What time for Melbournes SE tomorrow?

[Karl Lijnders]

DC - won't know until we wake up. Looks like late morning, bit like today but I expect things to be slow moving from the NNW-SSE with a pronounced line on the front edge of the trough, followed by thundery rain. This rain will continue into tomorrow night.

[stratospear]

Yet another band forming out towards Dunolly. I managed to get a photo on my mobile of Corkscrew cloud. I'll try to upload tomorrow.

[AUS_Twisted]

Hmm, looks like it's mostly over for here (Bendigo) I see lightning activity up north but thats to rain embedded for my liking.

Not sure if I should hang around much longer...

[mutley]

Although I am learning and enjoying the events of the past couple of days, the family have just about had enough of my promises. We have had 37, 38 and 38 over the last 3 days. And with so much expectation of late I really do hope tomorrow does come off. I am not holding my breath though.

With 38mm for the Year and just 8mm for the month, paddocks are beginning to look dry.

Parting comment from "The Boss" as she headed for bed after asking if its likely to rain tomorrow and stupid me promising 10mm - "It better come!!!"

If we do not get 10mm tomorrow, its the dog house or no for a month.

[droughtbreaker]

It's a bit of running entertainment how journalists actually fudge figures and many times completely make them up to make a news story sound more sensational. They do this continuously whenever weather is reported. I mean, yeah there were stacks of officially measured falls of 75mm today weren't there.

[Karl Lijnders]

Well lets hope we don't develop a very tough drought for you Damian. I think you will get 20-40mm tomorrow quite easily IMO. Should wait till tomorrow morning to see what the sky says first however.

Look it is good weather too loose the kg. I have lost 5kg just sitting here posting!!

[droughtbreaker]

I swear, tomorrow is the day. There will be no sea breezes, a proper strong trough over us and interaction with cooler air. It will be widespread rain starting off as scattered storms but then flattening out over a wide area. Eastern parts will be the focus tomorrow, particularly for storms.

[Dc449]

Better not happen before 3... thanks for that Karl

[Blackee]

It is D-day Andrew. And if GFS stormcast is right, we might see some of the biggest storms in the recent memory.
At 1400 tomorrow, lets say a triangle between Heathcote/Seymour/Broadford is prog'd to have -6 LI's and 3200 CAPE. Shear is also much improved as compared to the last couple of days, so Supercells are a huge chance IMO!

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast. ... #stormcast

[Rhino]

Well latest GFS update out and gives the central ranges a good 75-125mm over the next 24 hrs. Gives my area 75-100mm and not without a chance after todays procedings, also GFS picked todays falls the best. But with that said we won't get within a bulls roar of 75mm.

Rhino.

[Nick Sykes]

Hey guys

Today was about as expected, with Eastern Suburbs always looking very touch and go with the steering flow all wrong and the seabreeze. Some very nice storms north and west of the city today made it very hard to concentrate at work with frequent radar checks. Pity it all died out so early. Tomorrow looks interesting, with some very unstable air around, and steering winds out of the NW shold see things get much more exciting in the suburbs. The only ? mark over tomorrow is where the surface trough will sit when things get going, hopefully not too far east.

I expect thinks to go up early tomorrow and would not be surprised if we see some morning action.

Good Luck

Nick

[adon]

ended up getting 7mm out of that little storm. Just lovely steady, solid rain but a pretty windy to boot but so nice to cool down!

[Karl Lijnders]

Latest US wants to give a similar day storm wise to today. Not sure if I agree with that. Wait and see in the morning. Another thread has been prepared for the rainfall in the NE flow over the weekend with storms continuing inland.

[rikjpool]

Ok, this is looking West over towards Eppalock from Mcivor Highway Journaton. Nice wall cloud formed out of the leading edge, and a decent inflow tail. And the area of interest is to the right of the picture. If you can make out the scud that seemed to me at the time be rotating, and a couple times reaching the ground. However im not fully confident that this was a funnel, moreso just some intersting Scud playing with me. Interested to hear others thoughts on it. The clouds above were corkscrewing, Cg's strobing an pulsin every 2sec, along with a heap of greenage.


And again from a little further up the road, looking at it from a different angle, and about 10min from the first pic...


And if you look really careful managed to snag a cg remnant as well. Right side of pic.


Now for tomorrow, im glad to hear that Bendigo is in the forcast, however i think it will be more of a thundery rain band than locally flash flooding and stuff of the sort. But would love to proven wrong!!

[Bobman]

0.0mm here today and 0.0mm yesterday.

It's great that some country areas have got a nice drink, but mostly if the cells coming from the west miss Melbourne, they usually miss the Thomson as well.

Bring on tomorrow and Sunday!

[Karl Lijnders]

Thomson got ~20mm from a storm that went smack bang on the dam tonight.

Rikki that looks very similar to the YV cell that I was talking to you about earlier this afternoon. Corkscrew rotation with a developing scud/meso base. Most severe cells went into this phase at one point I noticed.

Excellent work again.

Sky back to clear here, I suspect a similar setup tomorrow morning with areas of fog, then storms from later morning with the flow more NW-SE then flattening into heavier rainfall.

[Rhino]

Been nice light rain here for about the last hr, up to 12mm for the day so I'm happy. Don't really mind if we get more of a rainband tommorow with embedded heavy falls, would love to get 50-75mm from a rainband.SWEEEETT

Rhino.