The Australian Weather Forum

Anthony Violi wrote:Starting to see clearance now, should be a very interesting afternoon coming up, might yet see some serious rain through East Central.

Yeppeee! Even i've been struggling to get the falls!

27mm isn't to bad Stefan Thats 2/3 our January average

Dp's 23c at Laverton and Avalon thats Darwin material

Yes it's still rainning hasn't stopped were almost at 48hrs of constant rain 9,28.2 and 46mm since the event started we have added another 6.4mm this morning sitting of 89.6mm event total the local river is on the rise!

I forgot to add that had some thunder in the last 30min too

Will Melbourne City itself get any real rain out of this or will it be just for northern areas?

Woke up to heavy rainfall this morning. We have received 49.8mm to 9am this morning in the official gauge. AWS showing 20.4mm since midnight.

Not as widespread the rainfall this morning as the stuff over the south heads into the Bass Strait area. Will have to watch this afternoon for thunderstorms if any clearer air avails in particular. We had some blue sky 10 mins ago and quickly filled up. Temperature here sitting at 22 degrees with a DP of 21 degrees. Winds are fairly fresh northeasterly averaging 30 km/h.

Now to see if I can get my storm charts working again ...

AV, I agree. NE winds today, looks a lot more promising today - think W Central will get the best of it though.

OMG sun

Have a feeling things are going to really explode this afternoon, the humidity is shocking out there. Patches of sunshine pushing through here at work.

23.6° and 88% humidity, still full cloud cover here. Event total is 27mm

SUN!!!

I just saw the first patch of blue sky here since Saturday evening. It was a tiny fraction of the sky and you had to use your imagination to see it and it has since filled in with scud, but it does look like we may see a bit of a clearing today which would allow for storm development. The radar is showing that the nature of the rainfall has changed and it is now 100% convective. We have lost the nimbostratus stuff by the looks of things.

With these kind of setups, if the sun comes out as it is in bendigo,with enough time for heating, will we see extreme tops on some storms resulting in hail? or becuase of the humidity and warmth, hail would be out of the question?

Getting a bit breezy here at the moment and it's rather nice.
Overcast sky here too with cumulus looking clouds, there's definitely a lot more moisture in the lower atmosphere than has been the past few days. Currently it is 27.2C, DP is 17.6C, and have recorded 11.4mm for the event.

The fog has finally lifted in Flinders (been hanging around as a pea souper for over an hour), and I can finally see the horizon and Phillip Island again. The sun is trying to come out too.

WX station at home:

Temperature +27.5 °C
Humidity 66 %
Dew Point +20.6 °C

22.5C here.
EDIT: 20.1C DP's and 93.2% Humidity....

PW values of 50 in yesterdays 11Z trace and this mornings 23Z trace...incredible values for Melbourne.

DPs now rising across the Melbourne area too.

850 NE jet this morning providing massive warm air advection/upslide along the eastern side of the trough and resulting in the heavy falls in the Wimmera.

Cell SW of Shepparton is currently lightning active.
As is the cell WNW of Bendigo.

Will post the TS chart once available (closer to lunchtime)

sun is out here in st leonards, and boy its heating up quick... going to be some hp cells about today for sure!!!

rikjpool wrote:With these kind of setups, if the sun comes out as it is in bendigo,with enough time for heating, will we see extreme tops on some storms resulting in hail? or becuase of the humidity and warmth, hail would be out of the question?

I woulda thought the uppers would be too warm Rik, any convection might be that pulsey embedded stuff?

Currently working on my thunderstorm chart for today. Should be released in the next 10 mins.

Otherwise, winds here averaging 40 km/h. T sitting on 25 and DP at 22!! We have sun!