Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

[Twister]

Those charts are amazing the last few months the weather in Vic has been off the charts and something we may never see again once things settle down.

Also shows how Big that Dec and Jan event were, take them out and most would lose 200-300mm if not more in some areas those events were nuts

Could we also be on the verge of another 100-200mm week not at this stage but 50-100mm looking good

Looking WET for much of Aussie land though next week or so

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest EC gone nuts and thrown 136mm at Melbourne for an 8 day period starting Wednesday.

[Ken]

HarleyB, the tropical storm products from EC and UK have been suggesting Yasi will probably continue moving across inland QLD as a fairly strong system before weakening, curving a bit to the south and slowing down a bit approaching central Australia. They're currently painting an "offshoot" from the main path of some very small probabilities that curve towards the S then SE across southeast Australia but this may be more in the form of moisture that streams off it towards SE Oz in the stronger mid/upper northwesterly stream there. The landphoon scenario is still a strong chance.

Here's another satpic that shows the sheer size of what many have been calling, a monster. Compare it to Anthony and the size of QLD and you can see why. There's a bit of distortion since we're looking at a bit of an angle towards the south but it's still impressive. It's potentially a very dangerous TC with consensus tracks within model ensembles (and between models) remarkably tight along its path, with almost 100% probabilities (e.g. EC and UK ensembles) showing up for severe TC status for days which is quite rare so far out. The threat of a severe coastal impact is high. Obviously Rockhampton, among other places, is a worry at this stage. Approximately 1000 km of the QLD coastline is now under a Cyclone Watch. Apologies again re the size of the image:

[HarleyB]

Is there yet more signs of another moderate to significant rain event in about 6 or 7 days time? I have seen charts indicating something of interest from Thursday onwards, but would just like clarification.

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes Harley ,models have been firming on moisture once again increasing over Victoria from next Wednesday/Thursday, but no real rainfall until about the weekend. Storm prospects increase in the west of the state from the Wednesday. Something to watch.

[droughtbreaker]

The remnant moisture from Yasi will hang around for quite a while, so any more decent troughs or fronts over the next 10 days or so will create more deluges. Even weak systems are likely to spark off decent rainfall.

[Ausmammal]

Looks like we are going to get squeezed by what looks like 3 systems, or is it only 2. I'm a little confused as so much is going on at the moment. More rain coming this way.

[Anthony Violi]

This is amazing, i put it in here as it gets seen regularly, picture of Wivenhoe and how close it was to a catstrophe because climate scientists were 100% wrong in their predictions of permanent drought...

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andr ... _brisbane/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Petros]

AV that article by Bolt is riddled with inaccuracies, I followed the dam operation closely, followed the review post flood and have read the dam operating procedure which was published a little over a week ago. It was well managed. When the picture was taken, those gates were actually throttled back near 50% on previous outflow to allow the floodwaters from Ipswitch and Lockyer V to pass.

As for next weekend, we have EC, GFS and Access agreeing that Yasi remnants will head to SW WA then slide to Vic along the top of a narrow elongated ridge of high pressure under Aust arriving Friday/Sat. Looks to coincide (or perhaps create) a weak easterly dip for us. 10-20mm of followup rain for Vic I reckon. Great in February!

[Anthony Violi]

i must say i didnt read the article Petros, i just was amazed at the pic of the dam and how it dwarfed the surrounding countryside. So you are most likely correct.

Yes, more rains next week and we are in danger of being relocated to Bass Strait.

[Supercellimpact]

Yep models are on this already, looking good.

[johnno]

I must say I am starting to get quite worried about this up coming system late week with models slowly upgradeing their rainfall in general as it gets closer both ACCESS and GFS have 50-80mm in their 12z runs overnight and EC also slowly rapming up rainfall, I am concerned about Central, NW, NE and West Gippsland catchments in particular as things are incredibly wet after this last event and places are still flooded and unlike last time this coming event is coming on the heels of this one thats just concluded only 4-5 days break unlike last time which was neally 3 weeks break and also the fact the weather won't get quite as hot inbetween as last time, concerning times ahead guys.

[damiantheomen]

Just putting it out there guys - agree or disagree - the media are all refering to fri/sat deluge as ex tropical cyclone yasi, I thought it to be ex tropical cyclone anthony (the entree) and looking at EC next fri/sat is the main course of the 'real' remnants of ex tropical cyclone yasi?

comments?????

[Meso]

Well, I'm a novice when it comes to understanding how all these systems interact. But, from what I can gather, just from observing the sat pic and looking at the synoptic during the week, the main trough that was the source of most of the moisture was Anthony (I watched it drift down here over the course of a few days last week), but it also seemed to be drawing in more moisture and getting a bit of a kick along from the tail of Yasi. If you look at the sat and synoptic now you can see the "guts" of Yasi is still in the middle of the country.

[apocalypse]

Yes, the deluge caused yesterday and on Friday was in part due to ex-TC Anthony, but not true in it's sense as a system, but just as remnant moisture that was advected with it and then remained as Anthony dissolved into the chaos of other weather systems. Ex-TC Yasi also did play a major role in advecting very moist air along the trough line, and the constant infeed of moisture would have helped it that extra bit further to get those huge totals.

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes both Meso and apocalypse are correct. The initial trough was feeding in to a mass of moisture left over from the EX-TC Anthony, but did also draw in moisture from EX-TC Yasi - two major sources of moisture we had.

For later next week, it's the full on remnants of Yasi moving down over Victoria and interacting with another pressure trough. Further widespread areas of heavy rainfall can be expected. I think this time most of the state will get the falls, including the southwest this time with already some large totals being modeled. Storm chances develop in the west Thursday.

[damiantheomen]

well I am glad other people agree because it sounded to me going by the media reports that all of a sudden yasi had moved from QLD down to victoria in a day or so.

I don't think this fri/sat is going to be as full on because of the inflow of moisture but the soil is sodden and any rain now will have no where to go.

[droughtbreaker]

The media are out of control with their ignorant misreporting of all these major weather events. It is a combination of lack of knowledge and understanding and a rabid focus on hyping things up as much as possible to whip society into a frenzy so that they sell more papers, get higher TV ratings etc.

The closest I have seen in the media to getting it right was describing the rain event as 'the tail of ex TC Yasi', this is still technically incorrect though (but a lot better than some media reports that is was directly a result of ex Yasi). No part of ex TC Yasi has come anywhere near us, it is a simple case of a low pressure trough dragging down moisture from the ex cyclone. The actual mechanism for the rainfall was the surface and upper level trough. The enhanced moisture that came from ex Yasi and also left over moisture from Anthony that became trapped over us, intensified the rainfall that we got from this system.

Unfortunately, that's not good enough for the media, it's not dramatic enough to just say that, they need to make it sound more exciting and more alarming. It makes me very mad.

Anyway, the next system that others are talking about now looks like a pretty major one as well. There won't be as much rain as with this system at this stage, unless we get very high instability yet again to spark off more storms. As a rain band with embedded storms we won't see the same extremes. It will still be another very large rain event though and widespread as well.

[johnno]

Yeah not sure about 150mm at this stage seems bit large to me but some areas should get 20-50mm and odd fall closer to 100mm especially if you get a storm or 2. Also Jake some models aren't convinced about the SW getting good rain again this time that also remains up in the air

[johnno]

At this stage it looks to be more a Northern, Central and Eastern Vic event but that may change next couple of days