Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk

[I_Love_Storms]

I just wanted to point out that as long as the monsoonal season remains very active up north there may be a wait for substantial rainfall for us down here and this may cause some serious problems re fire danger if we get a heatwave and a subsequent spike day with strong NW winds.

I think we will get showers/rain at some stage over the next few weeks but to what degree? Doesn't look like anything overly significant in the models at the moment, I really hope we will get some monster storms etc. and big rain events but until it is being picked up by the models we have to sit and wait. Because our climate is so variable down here, one minute we are concerned about serious flooding and the next minute we could be in a very dangerous fire season.

[norfolk]

We are very lucky this year we havent got the situation that is happening in NSW and QLD. They are suffering amazingly up there. I am sure they would have preferred to have dry conditions rather than what they have now.

A land of contrasts! I heard somewhere, that farmers (I guess up north but not sure), have said this one wet year has given the much more grief than the past few years of drought. I suppose it does depend on what you are farming.

Anyway, I wouldnt worry about alot of heating this summer, maybe a day or 2 here and there, but I never suspected this summer was going to be overly hot.

[Rhino]

Yeah and the thing about flooding is that it's short term pain for long term gain , dams filling or full. Drought only saps moisture and peoples spirits, I know alot of farmers around here feel that way, and it's awful either way and ideally you don't want all the rain in one go, but I know what the more helpful situation is. The fire situation won't be looking good in a couple of weeks so hopefully something is around the corner to keep the moisture in the undergrowth.

Rhino.

[Blackee]

So true Rhino.
Driving thru the Black Spur to Lake Eildon, it is starting to dry quickly.
Another 3-4 weeks of average temps and little rain sets us up for a dangerous late fire season.

[norfolk]

Driving thru the Black Spur to Lake Eildon, it is starting to dry quickly.

But isn't that normal this time of year? There should be some drying of the vegetation in the height of summer shouldn't there?

http://www.bom.gov.au/iwk/brambuk/index.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Looking at the indigenous weather knowledge for the Halls Gap region (and we could extend this to most of the SE of Australia) early and late summer should see some dry days. As long as those winter and Spring days get their rains a bit of dryness in summer isn't too much of an issue. Also I was also lead to believe that too much rain after an extended dry spell is bad for the environment.

Now yes there is still a high bushfire risk I am not denying that at all, but to have a dry spell now really isn't a major issue surely?

Also I want to say that, I don't want this to sound like I am trying to push an agenda, I am not trying to say dry is better than wet, I am just putting a thought out there (maybe a naive one, I will take that).

Also if anyone thinks this needs to be moved somewhere else. I am ok for that to happen.

[Anthony Violi]

Its all good Tony, its weather related. The point is that yes the hot weather will come and it s normal.

In 2008 we saw decent rain through Spring then enormous heat for 6 weeks, dry heat too which burned everything making it primed for the biggest event we will see for the next 100 years. And that was Black Saturday.

The difference this year is we have had phenomenal rain, unprecedented which has really waterlogged things so will take a lot more drying than 2008/9.

The other difference is that in 2008/9 we had not much rain through the summer, i think this year we will see much higher humidities so the chance of rain is better.

[Supercellimpact]

Norwengian has progged 21.9mm here, from Monday 10th to Friday 14th.. Which would be very nice if it came off, AV right on the money.

[Petros]

Norwengian has progged 21.9mm here, from Monday 10th to Friday 14th.. Which would be very nice if it came off, AV right on the money.

Wish it would triple that, then a fine spell the week after (when I take the family to Merimbula - greedy arent I!).

[Lily]

Victoria weather extremes article from the Herald Sun http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victor ... 5982506889

Hottest day: 45.7 degrees at Avalon Aiport on Jan 11

Warmest days on average: 23.6 degrees at Mildura Airport

Coldest days on average: 7.7 degrees at Mount Hotham

Coldest day: -5.3 degrees at Mount Hotham on June 28

Coldest night: -8.2 degrees at Dinner Plain on July 20

Coolest nights on average: 2.0 degrees at Mount Hotham

Warmest nights on average: 12.7 degrees at Gabo Island Lighthouse

Warmest night: 29.8 degrees at Mildura Airport on Jan 12

Warmest on average overall: 17.2 degrees at Mildura AirportpeCoolest on average overall: 4.8 degrees at Mount Hotham

Wettest overall: 3026.8mm at Falls Creek (Rocky Valley)

Driest overall: 454.0mm at Hopetoun Airport

Wettest day: 182.0 mm at Falls Creek (Rocky Valley) on Dec 9

Highest wind gust: 156km/h at Shepparton Airport on Mar 7.

[Gordon]

Thanks for posting Lily, some fascinating numbers. 3 metres of rain at Rocky Valley!

[Anthony Violi]

Gordon, here is something that will interest you as we were discussing this a few pages back.

The met office in the UK have admitted their seasonal outlook was faked. They told the government about the cold that was coming but their media release was a 100% different to maintain the GW scare. Its a developing story but the met office could be in serious trouble if its proven they produced two sets of predictions, one for the public, and one for the govt to maintain its warmist agenda.

I will find the proper article shortly, heres the graph they produced which doesnt show anything about the coldest winter in 451 years.



So one wonders, does our BOM have the same problem of deliberately lying to the public as ordered by the govt? Just to feed the propoganda machine to tax carbon? Our bom has been highlighted on many blogs for the seasonal outlooks which have a strike rate worse than Glenn McGrath.

Edit: heres the article from the Telegraph Uk today..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weath ... ublic.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Met Office 'kept winter forecast secret from public'

The Met Office knew that Britain was facing an early and exceptionally cold winter but failed to warn the public, hampering preparations for some of the coldest weather on record.

In October the forecaster privately warned the Government - with whom it has a contract - that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.

It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.

The Met Office eventually issued a public warning about the early onset of winter a month later, just days before snow and ice covered much of Britain and temperatures plummeted to the lowest on record.

Motoring organisations and passenger groups said yesterday that the delay hampered preparations for winter.

It has also been disclosed that the BBC has decided to publish independent assessments of the Met Office's performance on its website.


Roger Harrabin, an environment analyst at the BBC, told the Radio Times: “The trouble is that we simply don’t know how much to trust the Met Office. How often does it get the weather right and wrong. And we don’t know how it compares with other, independent forecasters.

“Can we rely on them if we are planning a garden party at the weekend? Or want to know if we should take a brolly with us tomorrow? Or planning a holiday next week?

“In a few year’s time hopefully we’ll all have a better idea of whom to trust. By then the Met Office might have recovered enough confidence to share with us its winter prediction of whether to buy a plane ticket or a toboggan.”

The decision to publish the assessment was welcomed by rival forecasters.

Piers Corbyn, the owner of WeatherAction, an independent forecaster, said: “This is a step in the right direction. The Met Office has got it repeatedly and yet it remains the public service forecaster. There needs to be greater competition. I hope this will encourage but it is vital that the assessors and their measurements are independent and objective.”

The Met Office stopped making its long-term forecasts public in March after a series of major gaffes.

In 2009 a predicted “barbecue summer” became a washout, while a subsequent forecast of a “mild winter” turned out to be one of the coldest in 30 years.

This winter, however, its seasonal forecast proved more accurate. Mr Harrabin said: “Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret.

“The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.”

Edmund King, President of the AA, said the Met Office had a “public duty” to publish its seasonal forecasts. He said that according to a recent AA survey of 20,000 of its members only 3% of motorists bought winter tyres.

He said: “The Met Office has a public duty to tell us its forecasts so that we can prepare for adverse weather. As it was many motorists were caught out.”

A spokesman for the Met Office said: “In late October we informed the Cabinet office that there were early indications of a cold start to winter. Following public research we were told that a monthly outlook would be of more use which is why we now have the 6-15 day and 16-30 day forecast on our website.”

[apocalypse]

Has anyone else had a major spider infestation. I feel like I'm living at cobweb manor at the moment, I can't go anywhere outside without running into webs. If you remove them they only reappear the next day.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, there's spiders and webs everywhere.

Mosquitoes around here are the main feature. I don't remember ever getting swamped by swarms of about 10-15 mosquitoes before. It is the worst I have ever seen.

Looks like intense humidity ahead. If it doesn't lead to widespread storms by early next week it will be widespread rain at the very least. Huge variations in temperature today. Approaching 34C at Avalon but just 24.6C here.

[Gordon]

Gordon, here is something that will interest you as we were discussing this a few pages back.

Yep just like our Climate Centre forecasts Anthony - all they have to do is reverse them and they're spot on! Must be working from the same forecasting formula.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

My pegs on the line are covered in webs,
Those big black house spiders pop there heads out when it gets hot I have noticed.

[droughtbreaker]

Freezing today. Periods of strato cumulus, not that much sun around and a cold wind (for summer) that freshened up a little into the afternoon. I forgot to note what the max got to today but it would have been lucky to scrape 18C. That's not unusually cold in the hills for southerlies in January by any stretch of the imagination, but given we have seen very few classic hot summer days so far and sun has been in short supply, it is all feeling a bit 'English' if you know what I mean.

The last couple of days had maximums around 28C here which is pretty warm, the humidity remained shocking too after that rain event, it certainly didn't clear out in a hurry. Just 11.6C now and the DP close to dropping into single figures which is a huge difference from the last week.

[Petros]

Fine sunny morning here in Merimbula, but a cooler SW breeze has arrived as I type No rain yest but drove through some drizzle E of Cann R.

[johnno]

Heat island effect working overtime Today CBD 2-3c higher than most other suburbs infact its 3.5c higher than Laverton Today the Max temp!

It was a sub 20c for most of us today in the suburbs but somehow its managed to touch 22c in the CBD so any chance of January looking cooler than normal for daytime temps for Melbourne are snuffed out on days like Today

[HarleyB]

This isn't worthy of a new topic in Fire Weather, but a new step has been added to their warnings above Emergency Warning, Watch & Act and Advice titled "Recommendation To Evacuate." What exactly does it mean and will fires that are in that category also be listed in Emergency Warning or will they be seperate, as in, currently, fires can only be in one category, but with the new step, can they be in that category and Emergency Warning?

All very confusing stuff... Also sorry as i'm pretty sure this is in the wrong thread.

[droughtbreaker]

Haven't been able to 100% ID it yet but pretty certain there is an Orchard Swallowtail butterfly hovering around our yard atm. This butterfly is usually found up the east coast from Cape York to the south coast of NSW but on rare occasions it comes down to VIC after an outbreak of intense or prolonged humidity.

Apparently the last time there was an outbreak of sightings of this butterfly in Victoria was during the 1970s, the last time we had massive flooding over the country and very wet and humid conditions.